His claims are, however, greeted by a not inconsiderable amount of cynicism from the Kremlin, who argue that President Maskhadov is seeking to maintain a diplomatic façade that allows him to present himself as a viable negotiating partner for the Russians, while granting the more radical Chechen elements a free hand to carry the war into Russia.

Much like the successful Israeli efforts to marginalize Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, Moscow insists that President Maskhadov is “tainted by terror,” and is therefore an unacceptable negotiating partner.

Maskhadov’s condemnations are necessary to secure the exiled government a badly needed measure of credibility and political legitimacy in Western circles, as many governments have acquiesced to the reality of de facto Russian sovereignty over Chechnya, with only the occasional protest at human rights abuses perpetrated by the Russian military. This acquiescence is most notable in the policies of the United States: the Bush administration’s policy dictates that greater cooperation with Russia be sought for the war on terror; as such, the Chechen question has been almost completely struck from the US foreign policy agenda.

In the wake of the September 11 attacks, Moscow was presented with a golden opportunity to act with greater impunity in Chechnya, an opportunity it quickly seized by alleging an al-Qaeda presence in the country, as well as links between Chechen militant factions and the terrorist organization. Hence, Maskhadov’s efforts at distancing himself from the more questionable forms of Chechen resistance.

The condemnation may also be an attempt to protect Chechen diplomatic envoys and representatives abroad from criminal prosecution in Western countries, a necessary measure to prevent a replay of the Ahmed Zakayev extradition hearings in the UK, with Russia currently seeking to have the Chechen government-in-exile’s highest ranking diplomat handed over for trial in Moscow on charges of terrorism.

The bombing is not the first time the war in Chechnya has been carried into Moscow; in October of 2002, Chechen militants seized a packed theater in the Russian capital, taking hundreds of Muscovites hostage. Led by 25-year-old Movsar Barayev, a nephew of the notorious Chechen warlord Arbi Barayev, the hostage-takers demanded an end to the Russian occupation of Chechnya and a phased withdrawal of Russian troops from the Caucasian republic.

The theater siege ended with a disastrous rescue attempt by Russian Special Forces, who pumped narcotic gas into the theater to immobilize the hostage-takers, but ended up asphyxiating the hostages, killing 129. Forty-one Chechen militants were killed in the subsequent raid.

While the raid was deemed “heavy handed” by many observers, both the US and the UK expressed solidarity with the Russian government, with the White House going so far as to explicitly blame the Chechens for the dead. These sentiments were echoed today by statements from European Union states and Israel, condemning the attack as an inexcusable act of terrorism against civilians.

Saturday’s bombings were also the latest to be conducted by female-suicide bombers, a phenomenon that has been increasingly witnessed in Chechnya recently, with notable incidents such as the attempted assassination of Ahmed Kadyrov, the leader of the pro-Moscow administration, during a religious festival in mid-May in which 16 people died, and an early June attack against a Russian air force bus that claimed the lives of 18 Russian servicemen. Chechen women also played an extremely prominent role in the October hostage-taking in Moscow.   

The upcoming presidential election in Chechnya is part of Russia’s reinvigorated drive to incorporate Chechnya into the Russian Federation, efforts that appear to be aimed at imposing a de facto legal order that favors autonomy for Chechnya under a pro-Moscow administration, thereby ending claims by the democratically elected government of Aslan Maskhadov. It follows in the wake of a controversial referendum held in March to determine the status of Chechnya vis-à-vis the Federation.

The March referendum was proclaimed a victory for the pro-Moscow administration, with Chechnya officially becoming an autonomous republic within the Russian Federation. The polls, however, were boycotted by numerous international and Russian NGO observers, and international press at the scene reported dismally low voter turnout.

Voting was also marred by numerous reports of voter intimidation and/or harassment. This is in addition to objections raised as to the legitimacy of voter registration criteria, which allowed thousands of Russian soldiers serving in Chechnya to participate in the referendum.

A day after the Moscow bombings, another Russian Mi-8 helicopter crashed in Chechnya, killing 5 servicemen and wounding 10. Reports have emerged that the helicopter appears to have been shot down. Chechen militants have increasingly targeted Russian helicopters, with 118 Russian soldiers being killed in August of last year when a similar helicopter was shot down.

The attack on the helicopter coming so soon after the Moscow bombings could indicate the beginning of a significant escalation in Chechen operations, whether in the field, or on Russian territory. President Putin’s announcement of elections, disregarding the improbable allegation that it prompted Saturday’s bombings, will likely add impetus to the Chechen’s already desperate struggle. The Moscow bombing served as a sharp reminder that the militants have the ability and the willingness to strike at Russia’s heart. The two factors combined do not bode well for Russia’s immediate future.

Azizuddin El-Kaissouni is staff writer for IslamOnline. A graduate of the American University in Cairo, he holds a BA in Political Science with a specialization in International Law. He frequently writes about Muslim affairs around the world. You can reach him at azizuddin@islam-online.net.

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