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Nuclear Terrorism...How Realistic Is It?!
By Wagdy A. Sawahel 03/12/2001
Could nuclear facilities and re-processing plants become potential targets for a terrorist attack? The events of September 11 alerted experts to the heightened threat of such an attack and demonstrated just how easy it would be to cause a major disaster at a nuclear installation. It is inconceivable that terrorist organizations have the capability to build a nuclear bomb. However, radioactive materials could also be used in a so-called
dirty bomb - a conventional explosive packed with radioactive debris that has the ability to contaminate large areas. Terrorists could also target nuclear facilities, much like they did before attacking the World Trade Center in 1993, thereby creating their own "bomb".
A Terrorist Nuclear Attack … Fact or Fiction? Some experts warn that terrorists don't actually need the technology to build nuclear weapons so long as they can steal them. Others point out that with a small amount of nuclear material that terrorists could form
dirty bombs. Government officials point out that all the terrorists would have to do is target a nuclear reactor to create the effect they want (Kluger).
Although stealing nuclear materials is difficult, it has not always been impossible. During the collapse of the Soviet Union, about 30 cases of smuggling of nuclear materials were reported a year. Some experts said, "It is like an open sieve. You get a superpower like the Soviet Union break up and of course its materials will come out" (Muriel). In addition, unsubstantiated rumors have abounded for much of the past decade about the possibility of small nuclear bombs being lost by Moscow during the collapse, and possibly being sold by criminals to terrorists. The potential danger does not appear so unsubstantiated, however, when one considers the 380 recorded cases of illicit trafficking in radioactive materials since 1993, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) (Kluger).
Despite all this, experts still insist that terrorist groups do not have the technical competence to build a nuclear weapon with radioactive materials. They point out that the only bomb they would be able to build with stolen nuclear materials would be a
dirty bomb (CNN). A true nuclear bomb is difficult to manufacture and requires a lot of industrial infrastructure, materials, machines and tools. In addition, it takes a long time to develop the capability. Israel, for example, took about 15 years to achieve nuclear status. Furthermore, operating a nuclear program would be a Herculean challenge for terrorist organizations whose survival depends on their relative invisibility. Even fully functioning states such as Pakistan have needed decades of research and the assistance of nuclear-capable allies to develop their bomb programs. In addition, Pakistan has not had to hide the extensive scientific and industrial infrastructure required to build nuclear weapons.
Although it is widely believed that terrorist groups do not have the capability to build a conventional atomic bomb, some experts fear that the radioactive materials could be used in a so-called
dirty bomb. Many specialists have warned that being not able to build an atomic bomb does not mean that radioactive materials cannot be used to cause extensive damage. It would be relatively easy for any terrorist group or rouge state to misuse nuclear materials, not as a nuclear bomb but as what's called a
dirty bomb.
A dirty bomb is a conventional explosive salted with radioactive isotopes in order to spew out nuclear material and contaminate a wide area. Its destructive power depends on the size of the conventional bomb, and the volume and nature of the nuclear material.
Dirty bombs can be made from old radioactive materials, old X-ray machines, and existing nuclear reactors. The victims of the Chernobyl nuclear accident are still living with the effects of their disaster 15 years later. The consequences of dirty bomb attack could be on a similar scale (Webster).
These dirty weapons have never been used before. In fact, some experts think that it is even inconceivable that terrorist organizations may have the capability to produce a
dirty bomb. In addition, given that a dirty bomb's function is primarily to spread terror through contamination, terrorists may be inclined to view chemical and biological weapons as a more attractive investment (Kluger).
Nuclear Safety…After September 11th
The IAEA sets world standards for nuclear safety and provides help to countries in case of a radiological disaster. The nuclear weapons programs in the five acknowledged nuclear weapon states - China, France, Russia, Britain and the United States - are not subject to IAEA safeguards. Neither are any that may exist in India, Pakistan and Israel, countries that have either tested or developed nuclear weapons, and are outside the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
In the past, an aerial attack by jumbo jet was not considered part of the security threat to nuclear power reactors. Current safety measures have only taken into consideration threats emanating from sabotage, theft, and natural causes like earthquake or hurricane. However, now, the engineering analysis of the nuclear plant must also take into account the possibility of an aerial attack by a large aircraft. That is something the
U.N.-funded IAEA plans to address as a part of a program to better protect the world's 438 nuclear power reactors. Early estimates put the cost at $50 million a year. So far, however, their findings have been positive, as many had already taken into consideration a direct bomb hit by a warring nation. "Our plant is ready to withstand the hit of an airplane, "says the manager at a nuclear reactor in Iowa, "it would crumple like a tin can if it hit our facility" (NPR).
However, they, like other plants, are not taking any chances. Recognizing the threat, individual governments have already moved to tighten nuclear security. France has installed anti-aircraft batteries around the nuclear re-processing plant at The Hague in Northwest France. The United States has banned planes from flying low and close to the country's 103 nuclear power plants. The United Kingdom has also taken measures to protect its nuclear plants, but has not made these measures public (BBC).
Sources
BBC. "Papers warn of Nuclear Threat." BBC News Service. November, 2001.
CNN. "Action Urged Over Nuclear Threat." CNN News. November, 2001.
Kluger, Jeffrey. "Osama's Nuclear Quest". Time Magazine (US), November 8, 2001.
Muriel, Diana. "N-Terror: Clear and Present Danger." CNN News. November 2001.
National Public Radio. "Special Report on Nuclear Terrorism." NPR. November 13, 2001.
Webster, Philip and Watson, Roland. "Bin Laden's Nuclear Threat." The Times (UK), October 26, 2001.
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