(1) Anthrax ….a Biological Weapon with Potential

Anthrax spores are tough, fairly easy to culture and have a long shelf life. They are also easy to handle and obtain - animal anthrax occurs almost worldwide. 

Spores are so resilient that those seized from a World War one German spy targeting allied pack animals have been revived after 80 years. Anthrax also has the ability to survive delivery via bombs, shells or sprays better than many other pathogens. Although it has still not been developed as a viable bomb-delivered weapon, its chances of future "success" are higher than other pathogens. For this reason, anthrax has been a popular research pathogen for people interested in biological weapons.

Because a human with anthrax cannot infect someone else, this limits the appeal of anthrax as a doomsday, terrorist bug. However, since it is usually impossible to diagnose anthrax it until it is too late for treatment, anthrax does hold a psychological terrorism appeal. 

(2) The Use of Anthrax as a Weapon 

Because of its availability, potential, long shelf life and horrific qualities, anthrax has figured in every known bio-arsenal of the last century, including those of Britain, the U.S., Japan, the Soviet Union and Iraq. However, no one to date has ever used them in battle. The only "tests" that have been done with anthrax are tests done on humans in Japan and tests on a Scottish island by Britain. Britain only succeeded in cleaning up the island with massive formalin treatments decades later. 

No successful terrorist use of anthrax is known, however, there have been suspicious situations in which anthrax played a central role. The murderous Aum Shinrikyo cult in Japan tried spraying anthrax, but used only a harmless, vaccine strain, either by mistake, or to practice. Foul play has also long been suspected, but never proven, in an economically devastating outbreak of anthrax in Zimbabwe in 1979, which helped tip the political balance. 

The Soviet Union had anthrax in missiles, shells and cluster bombs, as well as antibiotic and vaccine resistant strains, highly infectious strains, and recipes for reliable aerosols. Like every other admitted bioweapons state in the world, it is now meant to have destroyed its stocks. 


(3) The Anthrax Letters in US… A Scientific Analysis 

(A) The Anthrax Bacteria… U.S. Military Strain

Bioweapon specialists indicated that the bacteria used for the anthrax attacks in the U.S. are either the strain the U.S. itself used to make anthrax weapons in the 1960s, or a strain close to it. It is not a strain that Iraq, or the former Soviet Union, mass-produced for weapons. 

Tom Ridge, U.S. President George W. Bush's Homeland Security advisor, stated that the anthrax sent to Florida, NBC and Senator Tom Dashle were all the same strain. An FBI spokesman in Florida confirmed that this was the Ames strain. To be identified as Ames in the studies currently underway, the anthrax must either be the American military strain or one that is very similar. 

B. Ames Strain….

The Ames strain is probably the "best" strain for a terrorist to use. Ames is more likely than other strains of anthrax to cause disease in animals immunized according to the standard U.S. anthrax vaccine, which is now being given to U.S. troops. It has proven virulence and is not traceable to one particular country.

C. The History of Ames Strain

The name, Ames strain, was given to a strain isolated at the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Veterinary Lab in Ames, Iowa, in the 1930's. This strain, which was later shared with microbiologists around the world, still strikes cattle in the Western U.S. Recent American military research publications also mention an Ames strain isolated from a cow in Iowa in 1980. 

However, the scientists analyzing the anthrax attacks are comparing its DNA with a library of strains collected from all over the world. And in this collection, what is called Ames has even more interesting origins. According to scientists, the Ames strain emerged in the mid -1980s from a freezer at the Center for Applied Microbiology and Research, the British biodefence establishment at Porton Down, Wiltshire. Porton Down had acquired it from the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute for infectious diseases in Maryland. 

Ames is the strain that the U.S. used when it produced anthrax weapons. Although the program ended in 1969 and the mass-produced anthrax was destroyed, the U.S. and its allies kept samples. 

(4) Anthrax Attack… a Terrorist or a State Sponsored Operation?

The size of the anthrax particles used in the attacks tells a lot about their source as well. The particles used in the attacks were reportedly milled down to a few micrometers, optimal for inhalation. This has been cited as evidence of state involvement. However, some experts said that the attacks have caused relatively few inhalation cases so far, which suggests that the spores were not blended with anti-caking chemicals to promote airborne spreading, which is the real secret of weaponising anthrax. Experts therefore suspect the attackers do not have much material to work with and may not be funded by any state at all.

(A) States under suspicion 

Although more than 30 countries around the world are known or are believed to stock anthrax cultures for research facilities, some suspicion has fallen on the following states:

· Afghanistan

Afghanistan has denied any involvement in the recent anthrax attacks.

· Iraq

Baghdad is known to have anthrax spores and is thought to have developed the capability to use them in warheads and in aerial attacks. However, Iraq, like Britain favored the "Vollum" strain, which was isolated at Oxford in 1930. This has been confirmed by samples take from its Al- Hakam bacterial fermentation plant. In addition, after the Gulf War, the U.N. special commission (UNSCOM) on Iraq destroyed the remaining production and stockpiling facilities for biological warfare in Iraq. "By 1998, we were able to establish that Iraq had no capability of producing biological weapons" a former U.N. weapons inspector, Scott Ritter said. 

Ritter also reiterated his statement to IslamOnline editor Neveen A. Salem in Washington D.C. on November 2 2001, asserting that the anthrax used in the recent attacks on the U.S. did not come from Iraq.

· The Soviet Union

The Soviet Union had a state-run biological weapons program. Some of the stocks and expertise from this program could have fallen into the hands of other states or organizations. However, the Soviets did not mass-produce the Ames strain.

(B) Terrorist groups under suspicion

· Osama bin Laden

The U.S. authorities are treating their investigation into the outbreak as a criminal case. White House spokesman Ari Fleischer has recently said that the government is working under the umbrella of "Operation Suspicion" which states that the outbreak of anthrax contaminations are linked to the September 11 terrorist attacks. But, President Bush, the FBI and the CIA have stated that they have found no links between the anthrax attacks and the events of September 11, saying that it is more likely the bio-terrorism attacks are domestic in origin. However, Bush has not let bin Laden and al-Qa'eda off the hook, but gave no specific evidence. "There may be some possible link. We have no hard data yet but it's clear that Mr. Bin Laden is an evil man," Mr. Bush said. "I would not put it past him, but we do not have hard evidence yet." 

· U.S. extremists groups

Top U.S. investigators have stated that the recent wave of anthrax attacks could be the work of extremists groups in the United States such as U.S.-based right-wing hate groups or even lay U.S. residents. 


(5) Genetic Analysis … The way forward

We could soon have a solid a scientific evidence to help determine the origin of the bacteria used to produce anthrax, the amount and the culture method. As indicated previously, the bacteria strain Ames is a familiar one used by several labs around the world, which will make it much harder to pinpoint the culprits. Thus, more detailed analysis could identify a genetic "fingerprint" - particular sequences of DNA - that could be matched against bacterial samples in order to help trace a line of origin. This assumes, of course, that investigators can get bacterial samples from suspect labs to compare with the profile sample. 

It has been found that some DNA regions mutate frequently, as often as once in every 1000 cell divisions. Thus, by comparing the amount of mutation, you can determine with a high degree of confidence how many bacterial generations separate an unknown strain from closely related reference strains. This can help pinpoint the exact strain the unknown anthrax came from. 

It is also a way of counting the number of cell divisions the bacilli have been through since they parted company with the most closely related strain. And a small-scale batch of anthrax will have undergone many fewer cell divisions than a big batch. 

In conclusion, scientific analysis could reveal whether the anthrax came from a 50-liter fermentor, such as a small-scale terrorist could obtain, or the huge vats of a state-sponsored bioweapons facility. 


Sources: 

BBC. "Coping with Biological Threat".

CNN. "Report: Anthrax Could Be From Domestic Extremist." 

Henderson, Donald "The Threat of Bioterrorism and the Spread of Diseases." 

Mackenzie, Debora. "Anthrax Bacteria likely to be U.S. military Strain." New Scientist. October 24, 2001. 

Washington Post. "FBI, CIA Suspect Anthrax Attacks the Work of U.S. Extremists." Washington Post October 27th, 2001.