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The POW abuse scandal has resulted in the loss of US credibility among Iraqis.
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The
most damaging result of the recent prison abuse scandal in
Iraq
will be the loss of
US
credibility among the Iraqi population. In order to justify its
invasion of
Iraq, Washington
attempted to make it painstakingly clear that the goal of its
military action against
Baghdad
was to remove a tyrant from power; the motive behind the war was
argued to be the liberation of the Iraqi people, complete with
comparisons to the liberation of
Europe
during World War II. In order to reinforce this assertion,
during the early weeks of the invasion, the
US
military drew attention to a plethora of pictures showing Iraqis
running through the streets cheering the
US
advance, while disrespectfully smacking the soles of their
sandals against the many paintings of Saddam Hussein plastered
throughout the country.
Since
those early weeks and months of the conflict, Iraqis’
perception of US forces has changed quite significantly. At
first, it was unclear to Iraqis how the occupation would be
administered; for much of Iraqi society, the replacement of
Saddam Hussein’s Ba’thist establishment with US forces did
not present an immediate cause for alarm.
In
the early days of the invasion, US authorities argued that many
Sunni Arabs did not follow this cautious response because they
were the traditional power base behind Saddam’s government.
According to that argument, the removal of Saddam meant that
Sunni Arabs would no longer be favored by
Baghdad
and their interests would likely be harmed.
As
the occupation wears on, Iraqis of all stripes are beginning to
fume over the many negative effects of US occupational rule. The
checkpoints, house searches, ongoing military conflict, cultural
differences and other results of the
US
occupation have taken such a dramatic toll on the lives of all
Iraqis that disenchantment with the occupation is growing. These
Iraqis argue that now that Saddam has been removed, and the
Ba’thist structure largely destroyed, the
United States
should leave
Iraq
and let the chips fall where they may; indeed, they see the
stationing of US troops as a prime reason for much of the
violence that is plaguing their country.
Nevertheless,
there are still plenty of Iraqis who hope that US troops will
remain in the country for the immediate future and continue in
their attempts at stabilization. The fact that such supportive
opinion is still present in
Iraq
makes the recent prison abuse scandal especially devastating to
the
US
mission there.
The
prison abuse scandal will affect Iraqis in a few different ways.
For Iraqis already skeptical about the
US
occupation, they will now see further evidence as to why they
should demand an end to the occupation and the exit of US-led
troops. For Iraqis supportive of the
US
occupation, the prison abuse scandal will make it harder for
them to continue to support an occupation that is suddenly
looking less and less benevolent.
Unless
there is a major change in
US
strategy that suddenly brings successes rather than failures,
this trend is only going to intensify. Just how much anger is
going to develop over the
US
occupation can be seen in a recent report by the International
Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). In the report, the group
claims that some
US
military intelligence officers have estimated that “between 70
percent and 90 percent of the persons deprived of their liberty
in
Iraq
had been arrested by mistake. They also attributed the brutality
of some arrests to the lack of proper supervision of battle
group units.”
The
failure or lack of will of the Pentagon to keep strict
discipline in the
US
military will result in the rapid erosion of Iraqi support for
the
US
occupation. Without support from the Iraqi populace, the
US
occupation will fail and eventually US troops will be withdrawn.
If
Washington
hopes to salvage its interests in
Iraq
, a change of strategy and tactics must take place immediately.
According to a new poll commissioned by the Coalition
Provisional
Authority
,
US
success in
Iraq
is becoming harder and harder to grasp. The poll found that a
striking 82 percent of Iraqis disapprove of the US-led forces in
the country. Donald Hamilton, a senior counselor to Paul Bremer,
warned that, “generally speaking, the trend is downward.”
Since
the start of the invasion, it has been clear that the only way
for the
US
occupation to be successful is for it to win the support of the
Iraqi people. Yet, until now,
US
strategy has not changed significantly enough to take these
needs into account. Despite this failure, US leaders, such as
Army Lieutenant General Keith Alexander, head of Army
intelligence, understand this important reality. Alexander
recently told the Senate Armed Services Committee, “How to…
win the hearts and minds of the people [in
Iraq
] is one of the things that we really have to work at.”
Considering that the Bush administration has failed to create a
coherent and effective strategy thus far, it is doubtful that it
will be able to pull out of this “downward” trend.
Erich
Marquardt is an analyst with the Power
and Interest News Report. He can be reached at content@pinr.com.
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