While all of this was occurring, a whole new group of Iraqis entered the anti-occupation fray; resistance started to emanate from Shi'ite leader Moqtada Al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army. Al-Sadr, who Washington was intent on keeping out of the decision making process, increased his anti-occupation rhetoric to such a degree that the Bush administration finally decided to silence him, choosing to shut down his newspaper Al-Hawza. Al-Sadr refused to give in, and continued his incendiary speeches, this time provoking the United States into arresting one of his top deputies. He decided that it was time to prove to Washington that he would not be sidelined; he responded by calling his Mahdi Army into open confrontation with US-led troops.

It was this decision that has cast doubt over the future of US plans in Iraq, since Al-Sadr’s rebellion has had such extreme ramifications. His rebellion, coupled with the US retaliation into Fallujah, hastened the US troop death rate to its highest levels since the start of the Iraq invasion in March of 2003. Since the beginning of April, some 70 US troops have been killed throughout the country. Furthermore, the US military has killed some 600 Iraqi civilians, and has wounded thousands more.

The heightened level of death on both sides - American and Iraqi - bodes ill for the success of the occupation. Generally, the success of occupation hinges on the amount of negative influence the occupation force has on the lives of civilians in the occupied country. The goal of an occupation is for the positive effects to far outweigh the negative. Up until April, the United States had managed to largely balance the two out. The recent surge in violence, however, is quickly causing the negative effects of the US occupation to far outweigh the positive ones. This lack of balance must be corrected if the United States hopes to foster peace in the country and install a government that pursues policies at least somewhat in line with US interests in the region.

The heavy-handed reaction by Washington to the Fallujah attacks and the Shi’ite uprising is seriously threatening America’s current position in Iraq. The US must avoid creating huge levels of civilian casualties if it wants to defeat, or at least marginalize, anti-occupation guerrillas. By causing a high rate of civilian casualties, the US is quickly turning itself into an occupying force despised by the Iraqi populace. This, in turn, will lead many neutral Iraqis to sympathize, or even side with, anti-occupation guerrillas.

The pendulum has already started swinging, which is evident by the quick collapse of the US-trained Iraqi security forces in the face of the various guerrilla groups. In Fallujah, Baghdad and Iraq’s southern Shi’ite cities, guerrillas quickly swept into checkpoints and police stations, meeting little or no resistance from the US-trained security forces. Indeed, in some instances, the US-trained Iraqi security forces switched sides.

If this pattern continues, and more of the Iraqi population begins to side with anti-occupation guerrillas, the United States will be forced to make compromises in its Iraq strategy. For one, it will have to negotiate with guerrilla groups and political figures that it currently labels as “outlaws.” Leaders such as Moqtada Al-Sadr will need to be invited to the political decision-making table since Washington will not have enough military leverage to deal with so many different threats at one time. Such compromises will mean that the United States will not achieve all of its original objectives in Iraq; on the contrary, it may have to be happy with achieving a minor influence in the new Iraqi government since otherwise, if the current resistance movement continues, it may be left with none.