But
how do the powers that be go about slicing up a country and then
justifying it? Chaos is the answer. Iraq will be subjected to
such chaos that calls for diving the country into stable, secure
zones. American lawmakers will claim that the US is caught in a
quagmire and that it has no other alternative but division as a
viable exit strategy.
And
the chaos has already begun.
Two
nights before the breakout of hostilities in Gulf War II, I
participated in a live television debate hosted by a prominent
Canadian talk show host and attended by two influential
journalists from Toronto’s dailies and a noted sociology
professor.
I
explained in no uncertain terms that there was a slight margin
of success provided the Bush administration really knew what it
was doing. But that was unlikely because there had been too much
focus, too much emphasis, and too much energy spent on
convincing the world that Iraq was a threat and in possession of
WMD. There had been little to no mention of the post-war
situation in Iraq. Nothing. No contingency planning. No fiscal
planning, no infrastructure planning, no planning to ensure that
the country did not dive into civil war. Because so much energy
was spent convincing the world that the lies about Iraq were
true, Iraqis’ role in rebuilding their own country was
overlooked. Ignored, even.
So,
my prediction that night was that we would see chaos, but not
immediate chaos. I know the Iraqi people. They are a laborious,
passionate lot, but they hate to be cheated out of their rights.
And Iraq was their right. I predicted that problems would arise
month after month, until a full-scale rebellion was in full
swing.
As
the first anniversary of the toppling of the Saddam statue in
Al-Firdous Square comes round, resistance against the US-led
Coalition is mounting in some 11 Iraqi cities and towns.
Bulgarian, Hungarian, Spanish, Italian, Ukrainian and US forces
have come into contact with the most extreme, most intense
battles since the war began last year. Scores of Coalition
forces are being killed as are hundreds of Iraqi resistance
fighters and civilians. A young impassioned Shi’ite cleric,
Muqtada Al-Sadr has vowed to liberate Iraq. His Shi’ite
supporters, calling themselves the Mahdi Army, have gotten some
unsurprising support from Baghdad’s Sunni population. In the
Aadhimiya district of Baghdad, Sunnis and Shi’ites fought side
by side against US patrols in the city.
Breaking
Up Iraq
Iraq
is in a perilous state of flux. In traditional physics, an
object is motionless unless acted on by an outside force. If
Iraq is considered the object, then there are several, often
mutually exclusive and contiguous forces impacting the
war-ravaged nation.
Force number one: US military occupation of the country, much to
the chagrin of an overwhelming majority of Iraqis.
Force number two: This one could be called forcelessness - the
presence of a power vacuum, no legitimate government to
independently oversee Iraqi national affairs.
Force number three: After 1400 years of being sidelined,
enduring Umayyad, Abbasid and Ba’athist persecution, Iraq’s
Shi’ite community is finally within grasp of realizing
political representation. Consequently, their call for elections
will likely never dissipate but grow stronger with time.
Force number four: Iraq’s Sunni community is wary, but not
necessarily opposed to Shi’ite political power. They fear
marginalization and loss of influence.
Force number five: Iraq’s Kurdish community is adamant that
they deserve more territory in their self-governed polity.
Demands for the absorption of Kirkuk into Kurdish territory are
causing havoc in northern Iraq.
Force number six: Iraq’s Shi’ite, Sunni, Turkoman, Assyrian,
Christian, and other ethnicities fear Kurdish secession, and are
vowing to fight to protect Iraq’s integrity.
Force number seven: Civilian administrator L. Paul Bremer. Most
Iraqis are well-aware that Bremer holds the final cards. It is
his signature that codifies Iraqi laws, policies, and affairs.
The above are internal forces gripping at Iraq; let us
momentarily shelve external forces (Iran, Syria, Israel, Turkey,
Jordan, and Saudi Arabia).
Seven forces tugging at 24 million people floating on a sea of
much-coveted oil. Picture a pizza pie in the making. Picture
seven children all vying to bake the pie, small hands pulling
and stretching until the pie is a convoluted pile of flour and
dough. Will the opposing forces at work in Iraq tear the country
at the seams?
Barring a miracle, or a regional conference addressing the
concerns and needs of every Iraqi ethnicity (the lack thereof
certainly gives room for pause), Iraq will likely become the
pile of disarrayed flour and dough.
Washington think tanks and members of such “research”
institutes, like the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, may ridicule
any warnings that Iraq is on the verge of disintegration.
However, they are not among the Iraqi people, nor in the region
for that matter. There is a boil in the brew in Iraq and the
Arab World. And things are not getting better.
Firas Al-Atraqchi is a Canadian journalist of
Iraqi heritage. Holding an MA in Journalism and Mass
Communication, he has eleven years of experience covering Middle
East issues, oil and gas markets, and the telecom industry. You
can reach him at firascape@hotmail.com.
