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External and Internal Antecedents to the Islamic Revival
Scholars
generally agree on the socio-economic origins of discontent in
Muslim societies. Nearly the entire Islamic region is part of the
"Third World." An April 1995 World Bank report on the
economic outlook in the developing world placed the Middle East
behind sub-Saharan Africa.
This
forecast revealed that economic growth has averaged only 0.9 percent
in the Middle East, in contrast to a world average of 3.2 percent.
The real GDP per capita fell by 2 percent over the last decade. A
fall in oil prices and the cost of two Gulf wars are cited as part
of the cause, but low levels in the expansion of world trade is also
a factor. World trade grew by 3.9 percent in the last decade; yet in
the Middle East the average was only 0.9 percent. The report
predicts the Middle East will have among the lowest growth rates in
the world during the coming decade.(12)
These
economic conditions, coupled with high birth rates, lead to
widespread impoverishment. Political instability is therefore
axiomatic. For example, the number of Moroccans living in poverty
has risen from 28 percent to 45 percent in less than a decade.(13)
Political
Scientist Hrair Dekmejian observes: "Lack of socioeconomic
justice combined with official corruption and failure of political
elites to mold strong identities through socialization has produced
a crisis of legitimacy, where the moral bases of authority are in
question."(14)
The
mounting problems facing Muslim societies require solutions. The
post-colonial leadership's credibility is at an all time low. There
is widespread disillusionment and outright contempt for the
governing elites. John Esposito, author of The Islamic Threat: Myth
or Reality?, notes "modernization has not led to the triumph of
secular political and economic ideologies. Liberal nationalism, Arab
nationalism and socialism, capitalism and Marxism have, in fact,
come to be viewed [by Muslims] as the sources of Muslim political
and economic failures."(15)
A
return to an Islamic ethos takes shape within this context. Why
large numbers of people find a vision for the future in a
religiously-based paradigm for development in the age of secular
reason baffles many Westerners. It is this bewilderment that prompts
the West to view Islamism, a trend defying the notion that
separation of church and state is the sine qua non of progress, as a
danger to world stability.(16)
Westerners
perplexed by religious re-affirmation tend to overlook or
misconstrue the values Muslims hold dear. Hamid Enayat writes
"one of the remarkable changes in the Muslim mentality since
the Second World War…[has been] an awareness that no political
idea, however valid and vital for the freedom and prosperity of
Muslims, can mobilize them in a successful movement to cure their
ills, unless it is shown to conform in both form and substance to
the dictates of their religious consciousness."(17)
Murad
Saggafi observes:
Islam
remains an important force that influences society's norms and
values. Even if a secular government came to power, it would find
itself ruling a religiously oriented society.... Consequently, we
believe that the movement for change will only be effective if it is
led by reformists and democratic Islamists. Secularists cannot lead
such a movement.(18)
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