[Islam-Online- Politic]

Dr. Mohammed Safui El Deen Kharboosh.
Prof. of Political Science at Cairo University
Economics and Political Science

After a long period of unchangeable political systems in the Arab world, the year 1999 has witnessed the death of three Arab leaders followed by the death of Hafez Al-Assad on June 6, 2000.
The last three decades, gave us the change that has taken place in Morocco, Bahrain, Jordan and lastly, and more importantly, Syria. This importance does not reduce the fact that the change was only due to a death and not because of a presidential election or any coup d'etat.

Unchangeable Arabic Political System
We wonder how the Arabic political systems, which witnessed many changes during the 50s and the 60s, could keep their ways during the following three decades in a very remarkable way. The Syrian political system is a perfect example of the political changes pattern.

Syria witnessed three coups d'etat in the year 1949 and several ones in 1954, 1958, 1961, 1963, 1966 and 1970. Finally, for 30 years president Hafez Al-Assad managed to keep things under full control. This can be seen in many other "rebellious" systems such as in Iraq, for example, the "Ba'ath" Party has managed to keep its control since 1968 and Sadam Hussein has managed to keep his power since 1979. In the Republic of Libya, Moamer Al-Kadafi, has kept his position as the leader since 1969.

The Crisis Of "Arabic Republican Systems"
If this matter is accepted in the royal systems through the heirship, it seems very strange in the republican systems. It seems that none of the Arab leaders are ready to give up their authority willingly.. They have gained their authority either after a peaceful or a bloody coup d'etat; against the Monarchy system (as in Egypt, Iraq and Yemen) or through military movement in the republic system (as in Syria, Algeria and Sudan).

In all these countries the leader of the movement or the revolution occupied his position as the head of the revolutionary council, then he became the president of the republic after a mimic election or a false referendum to choose the only candidate. Some leaders of these movements still remain in authority. In other cases, the authority is turned over to another person after he oversets the previous leader.

So, the successions of King Abdallah II of Jordan, Sheikh Hamed Ben Eissa of Bahrain, and King Mohamed XI of Morocco, have become important events in a territory which used to have unchangeable systems. Each one of them has succeeded his father who spent a long period in authority.

The change has involved four of the leaders, who are considered to be the real patriarchs of their countries and who have gained a considerable influence in their own territory or in the Islamic Arabic territory.

The Maturity Of The Monarchy
The transmission of the authority in the three systems is characterized by fluidity because of the existence of a respectable dynamic of heirship. In spite of the unexpected change which King Hussein had set before his death, the transmission of authority to King Abdallah II has taken place without any obstruction. This shows that the monarchy system has gained some kind of maturity, which still has not been gained by the republican system.

These cases and Bashar Al Assad's nomination after his father's death, raise a very important issue about the future of Egypt, Iraq and Libya. The leaders of these countries have not set up a system for acquiring authority out of the fear of losing their positions.

It may be said that the new leaders are more acquainted with the new ideas according to their age, education and the influence of the western system that they were exposed to. They can also communicate better with different systems and are more able to reach compromises with other systems - moreover they seem to be more democratic.

The new leaders lack the lifetime support that their late fathers had from the public, which should make them more eager for much more achievements and to get rid of all notorious inherited powers.

The transition towards democracy and the fighting against corruption are among the dynamics for these new leaders to reinforce their validity. This could be achieved through the respect of human rights, getting rid of the notorious leaders, determining new decisions to gain more validity, promising of more democratic transitions, reducing the bands which are imposed upon the objectors and the minorities, releasing the political internees and improving relationships with their neighbors.

It is believed that some changes are about to take place in the new Arab systems, paving the way for new blood and more youth, especially since the three new leaders have proven to be less authority oriented and more forgiving.

However, we should not be too optimistic. The changes that took place in Jordan, Bahrain and Morocco were natural changes in a monarchy system. The same change in a republic system might end in a violent conflict leading to another series of coups d'etat.

The problem with the republic systems in the Arab world remains, especially since the power over the military forces and the security system remain the only way of acquiring authority, the fact that hinders any true democratic practice.

Finally, the monarch systems in Morocco, Jordan and Kuwait seem to be the most respectable and acceptable systems that set good examples for other systems in the Arab world

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