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by Nagib Khazzaka BEIRUT (AFP) - Lebanon's second and final round of parliamentary elections on Sunday should see an overwhelming parliamentary majority set to perpetuate Syrian dominance over Lebanon.
The As-Safir daily, which is close to the Syrian leadership, says "it is wrong to interpret the opposition breakthrough in last Sunday's first round as being an anti-Syrian vote, as Syria has only friends in Lebanon." And the daily An-Nahar said the "vote in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa" Valley, where the second round will be held this coming Sunday "will take place in areas traditionally under Syrian influence." Political analysts underline that the opposition led by former prime minister Rafiq Hariri and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has never questioned the principle of "privileged relations" with Syria, even though Jumblatt, who was the first round's big winner, favors a reappraisal of the Lebanese-Syrian relationship. Furthermore, the first round winners in northern Lebanon, led by ministers Soleiman Frangieh and Nagib Miqati, both personal friends of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, at no time raised the taboo question of the relationship between Lebanon and Syria. That has been the same with all the candidates for the 65 seats being contested in Sunday's second round. Not one has raised the issue, directly or indirectly, including Hariri. Indeed, the leading candidates from the Shiite Muslim Amal and Hezbollah movements have been at pains to stress "the common destiny between our twin countries." According to predictions, Damascus should get an overwhelming pro-Syrian majority in the Lebanese parliament for the third time in a row. The future Lebanese parliament's mandate has been extended by eight months "exceptionally" to allow it to elect the next Lebanese head of state in 2005. This situation in theory allows Syria to perpetuate its influence beyond the uncertainties of regional change, such as the May 24th Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the June 10th death of Syria's president Hafez al-Assad, who shaped Syrian influence in Lebanon and played a key role in Arab dealings with the Israelis. Syria also has more than 30,000 troops stationed in Lebanon. Damascus's detractors include the weakened Christians, one of whose leaders, General Michel Aoun, is in exile, while another, former militia leader Samir Geagea, is in prison. Critics say that in each election since 1992, Damascus has come up with an electoral permutation that has isolated anti-Syrian votes and imposed electoral alliances between supporters of opposing ideological and political orientation. They say that these arrangements are in breach of the national unity document agreed in 1989 at Taif in Saudi Arabia, with Arab and international support that ended the Lebanese civil war. That agreement called for a balanced electoral split, giving a fairer representation of religious communities. For example, the election boundaries in the north have put the Becharre power base of the jailed Geagea under the influence of the pro-Syrians, while Christian candidates in the south are at the mercy of the Shiite steamroller of Amal and Hezbollah, two rival movements brought together under the combined pressure of Damascus and Tehran. The electoral law denounced as a distortion of the Taif agreement and described as "imperfect" by Prime Minister Salim Hoss himself, has pushed part of the Christian opposition to boycott the vote. During the campaign, Syria played the role of firefighter, and President Bashar al-Assad had visits from dozens of politicians, including Hoss and his challenger Hariri, to ask them to soften the tone of mutual accusations, which was reaching a crescendo. Assad has also met with Miqati, Frangieh, parliament speaker Nabih Berri, commander in chief of the army General Michel Soleiman, the much-criticized Interior Minister Michel Murr, and Hezbollah leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. |
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