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Iran: Between Modernization And Conservatism (Part II)
By Sahar Kassaimah
05/04/2001
In Part I of this article, we addressed the reasons behind the conflict between the conservatives and reformists in Iran. The reelection issue of reformist leader President Mohammed Khatami was also covered.
Neither faction has announced their nomination for the next election, so it is still too soon to know how this conflict will end.
Amid the uncertainty, President Khatami remains quiet on the issue of his reelection. He is the reformists' first choice, and many analysts are predicting that if Khatami accepts their nomination, his opponent in June's election will be Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsangani, Iran's former president between 1989 and 1997.
Now the question is, if these two are the nominees, who will succeed in June's polls? The reformists' victory in ousting the conservative majority from parliament is a sign of an Iranian trend; however, it does not mean that the party's nominee could similarly oust his opponent in the presidential campaign. And the conflict in this case is not just between the conservatives and the reformists, but to a large degree, between Khatami and Rafsangani, as well.
Who is Rafsangani?
Rafsangani, a student of Ruhollah Khomeini, was educated in local religious schools and later at the Quom theological seminary, where he graduated as a
Hojatolislam in 1950. Due to his opposition to Mohammed Reza Shah Pahlavi's rule, Rafsangani was arrested on several occasions and spent three years in prison from 1975 to 1977.
In 1979, after the overthrow of the Shah and Khomeini's rise to power, Rafsangani was appointed to the Revolutionary Council. There, he was elevated to the leadership of the Islamic Republic Party and, soon afterward, that of the Majlis (the Iranian parliament).
For the Iranians, Rafsangani is unlike any other elected politician; he is a symbol of the revolution. He is also considered more than just a religious scholar, having balanced Islamic knowledge and political gravity. He is considered the
Ameen (honest) of the revolutionists - from among the faithful and the honest in the Iranian nation. In addition, his opposition to changing basic revolutionary laws and policies (for example, that of not allowing the president to run for a third term) earned him even more respect in the eyes of the Iranian people.
Some analysts predict that Rafsangani is more likely to succeed in June's election - not just because of conservatives backing him, but also reformists who feel that Khatami did not fulfill his promises or meet the expectations of the people.
Others say that Rafsangani also wanted to implement pro-Western policies when he first entered the presidency in 1989, but was unable to do so - despite the death of Khomeini. He is not considered to be totally outside of the reformist program; rather, he is perceived as in the middle of the two factions that rule the country. Some predict that he is more qualified to end the conflict and unite the Iranian people than is Khatami.
Meanwhile, some have expressed concerns that this conflict could overthrow the Islamic Republic of Iran. However, this doesn't seem probable because the two factions do not represent totally different or separate parties.
The reformists are not asking for a coup d'etat, or calling for a change in the revolutionary dogma. They are not denying Iran's past; rather, their reform program is a normal and appropriate demand at this stage of the revolution.
Coincidentally, Khatami's political roots also began with the revolution. He believes that defending reforms is a revolutionary, historical, and national responsibility.
Only time will tell what will happen in the future.
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