By IOL South Asia Correspondent

NEW DELHI, October 19 (IslamOnline) - A new U.S. study says India could invade Pakistan (possibly with Israeli help) if Islamists gained ascendancy there. This would be to forestall Islamist control of nuclear weapons, the study said.

The study, “Transforming America’s Military,” published by America's National Defence University, said there was a “distinct prospect” for such a development in the next few years.

“The nightmare scenario of the next few years is that American and allied military operations in South or Southwest Asia end up severely destabilising the Pakistani regime,” the study said.

A coup or capture of power by an Islamist faction within the military or chaotic conditions like a civil war would diminish “the reliability of central control of the Pakistani nuclear arsenal,” the report said. In a situation like that India and Israel could intervene to prevent nuclear weapons from falling into Islamist hands, the report said.

The report describes India as “an important nuclear-armed ally of the U.S.” and Pakistan as “very fragile ally.” Indo-Israeli invasion could unleash a major regional war in which “use of nuclear weapons could not be precluded.”

Written by Peter Wilson, a senior political analyst at Rand Corporation, and Richard D. Sokolsky, a research fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defence University, the study echoes reports originating from America in September last year.

The earlier reports said American Special Forces commandos had been training with their Israeli counterparts at a military base in the U.S. to neutralize Pakistan’s nuclear weapons in case Islamists captured power in Pakistan.

What the present study does not say is America itself would want to do to Pakistan with Israeli help what the new study ascribes to India. It could also be a warning to Islamist political parties and Islamist elements in the Pakistan army not to destabilize Musharraf’s rule.

The study says Israel is intent on deepening strategic relations with Turkey and India, which it approves. This, the study says, is “likely to be encouraged by the United States, especially in the context of war on terrorism.”

India’s material and diplomatic support to the “war on terror” has been appreciated, so has its potential role in containing China over the next few years. On the other hand, Pakistan has been acknowledged as “a vital but very fragile ally.”

The study says a major Chinese missile modernization program may provoke some vocal sections in India to follow suit, because India would have a military profile keeping Chinese strength in view, not Pakistan’s. However, India could be restrained by budget constraints.

The study acknowledges that the United States and its major allies “have accepted the fact that both India and Pakistan have become and will remain nuclear-armed states. Perhaps the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty) regime as a global non-nuclear norm will be strained but not broken,” it said.