|
 The
Taliban has adopted a strategy whose features have unraveled as it
runs counter to the U.S. presence inside Afghanistan. This
strategy lays stress on Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is motivated
by the early American attempts to isolate the Taliban regime from
the world community by retracting Saudia Arabia and the UAE’s
acknowledgement of the Taliban government. This, they claim,
causes no harm to the Taliban since their mantra is: We ask
nothing from anyone and no one asks us anything.
Analysts
sum up the Taliban’s strategy as follows:
1-Mobilizing
the religious public in Pakistan
One
of the most important points in the Taliban’s strategy is to
mobilize the religiously-minded in Pakistan, especially the
advocates of Pakistani religious parties who consider the Taliban
Movement to be their extension in Afghanistan.
The
religious public in Pakistan comprises of several trends:
-Salafi
Trend: This trend and all relevant groups lack popularity. Only a
minority that is incapable of mobilizing the Pakistani public
follows this trend. Nevertheless it has been conditioned to
obedience of the ruler thus being friendly to government
decisions.
-Barilwi
Trend: It is a Sufi trend represented by several political
parties, the most famous of which are: “Pakistani Ulamma
Association” headed by Sheikh Ahmad Shah Nourani, a veteran
politician; the “Quran Method Movement;” and “The National
Movement” headed by Sheikh Dr. Tahir Al Qaderi. This trend
enjoys a huge popularity among the Pakistani public. Poor
political awareness of its followers, however, falls short of
serving the Taliban. This trend is mainly pragmatic. The
ideological discrepancies between the followers of this trend and
the Dubands, who consider themselves to be an extension of the
Taliban, have confused their activities to support the Taliban.
-Duband
Trend: This trend also acquires popularity among the Pakistani
public, especially in the Sarhad and Baluchistan provinces. It is
supported by 10,000 religious schools all over Pakistan. This
trend is politically represented in Pakistan by a party called
Islamic Ulama’ Association which has been split into two
parties: one headed by Sheikh Fadl Al Rahman and the other
by Sheikh Sami` Al Haq
This
trend has undergone some changes since the end of the Afghani war.
Some organizations that participated in the Afghani war now
participate in Jihad in Kashmir. They are becoming increasingly
interested in politics although some of them - especially scholars
- used to be reluctant in this respect.
-Haraki
Trend: This trend is represented in “Al Jama`a al Islamiya” in
Pakistan headed by Sheikh Al Qadi Hussein Ahmad. Although it lacks
popularity with the public, it is capable of mobilizing the people
due to its disciplined organization and devoted members.
The
Taliban, as mentioned above, is an ideological extension of the
Duband movement. The Taliban wants to draw upon this bond and
mobilize the Duband parties in Pakistan to riot against
America’s threats to the Taliban and to protest on Pakistan’s
cooperation with the U.S.
The
Taliban’s fanaticism has been their mistake even in the present
circumstances. Consequently they cannot communicate with all
trends representing religious public in Pakistan. They have
confined their communication to the Duband Trend. Even Al Jama`a
al Islamiya, that saw no room for silence and opposed the
governmental support of the U.S., did not receive any endorsement
nor word of thanks from Taliban’s officials. Taliban radio
broadcasts, Sawt al Shari`ah, omitted airing news of
demonstrations organized by the Pakistani movement. Detailed news,
however, is aired about the movements of Sheikh Fadl Al Rahman and
Sheikh Sami Al Haq.
Stopping
the Americans from Pakistan
The
Taliban seeks to make use of its borders with Pakistan to put a
stop to the U.S.: this is the Taliban’s second plan.
2-Mobilising
the population of Pashtun Tribes on the border
Pashtun
tribes inhabit the borders between Afghanistan and Pakistan. These
tribes were well armed during the Afghani war to the extent of
possessing heavy artillery and cannons. They are known for their
aggressiveness in war. The Taliban wants to make use of these
tribes to prevent American forces from entering via Pakistan and
settling beside the Afghani borders inside Pakistan.
Throughout
history, tribal Sheikhs have been known for being pragmatic and
tempted with money. America, however, does not want to risk the
lives of its soldiers, thus it has altered its strategy. They
initially thought of Pakistan as the centre of the American forces
and attacks. The furious riots, demonstrations and death threats,
however, have caused the U.S. forces to be based in Uzbekistan or
any of Central Asian countries.
They
might be satisfied with intelligence information offered by
Pakistan and permission to fly in Pakistani airspace -but not the
bases - for troops based on the Afghani-Pakistani borders.
3-
Trying to build up confidence among population of the southern
states
Afghani
modern history indicates that the southern population like
“Piktia” and “Piktika” are the most liable to be bribed.
The British had previously appointed Nadir Shah, the father of
Afghanistan exiled king Thahir Shah through “Piktia”. They
even built an army and toppled prince HabibuLlah Kalakani known as
Bacha Saqaw.
The
Taliban wants to save itself an re-enactment of history; Thahir
Shah according to them should not follow his father’s line. The
rulers of this state have been given a lot of confidence. Leader
Galal Iddin Haqani has been appointed a major general in its
forces. Other personalities became in charge of several posts in
these states.
4-
Resorting to previous jihad leaderships
The
Taliban used to consider previous leaders who were Mujahiddin as
criminals. Mullah Muhammad Omar has ordered the death of Rabbani,
Sayyaf and Hikmatyar if caught. “Their destinies will be as that
of Naguib,” Mullah Omar stated in a press conference on the day
they conquered Kabul.
The
Taliban has continuously rejected any mediation to bolster closer
relations between the Movement and the jihad parties, although the
latter has frequently shown willingness to do so.
Nevertheless,
the Taliban has attempted to make use of some of those figures.
Thus, they have mandated a delegation of ministers and some old
members of the Islamic Party to Iran to reach a settlement with
Hikmatyar, Mullawi Muhammad Younus Khalis and Mullawi Muhammad
Nabi.
The
Taliban, however, has made no initiative to settle disputes with
the Northern Alliance and achieve solidarity. No understanding can
be currently projected as the Northern Alliance now considers the
Taliban too weak.
The
U.S. and its allies seem to have realized that the Taliban still
has the Pashtun’s favor. Therefore they have set aside any
rhetoric that may provoke the Pashtuns and urge them to take the
Taliban’s side to defend their rights. They have become less
interested in the Northern Alliance, and instead intend to form a
government in which all ethnic groups, especially the Pashtuns,
participate. This has been stated by Tony Blair in a press
conference he held October 5 after talks with Pervez Musharaf.
Analysts
believe that the U.S is seeking an alternative to the Taliban in
areas where the Pashtuns are a majority so that they may be a part
of the new government. Pashtuns, therefore, will have no reason to
back the Taliban. The expected government will lack harmony,
unfortunately, as each of the states representing the global force
will make sure that it comprises of those who will watch their own
interests.
|
