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American
air strikes against Afghanistan have triggered a myriad of
queries: What will the results of the war be? Will the Taliban
persist and for how long? Will the United States realize its goal
and topple the Taliban regime?
Two
opposing visions seem highly obtrusive concerning the
potentialities and the capacity of each party to make the best use
of the available elements, both internally and globally.
The
Taliban will Not Persist
Many
analysts project that it will not be long before the Taliban
Movement succumbs to the U.S. strikes. The present international
circumstances, in their view, are totally different from those
reigning at the time of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. The
world at that time - especially the neighboring Islamic states -
backed the Afghani people against the foreign invasion. But
the scene has vehemently changed. The U.S. has managed, through
threats and enticement, to gain support for its alleged campaign
against terrorism. The Taliban can only expect to rally the
support of a small number of Islamic nations.
It
goes without saying that such a sophisticated war necessitates
state-of-the-art weapons, artillery and huge logistics - even
bulky national donations fall short of covering these needs.
Moreover, the U.S. is pressuring Islamic states further
(particularly the neighboring states) to restrain public support
and prevent donations from reaching the Taliban: predictable
demands, considering that the U.S. also asked Islamic charities
operating in Afghanistan to freeze activities and shut down their
offices.
America’s
Victory at any Cost
On
the other hand, America is launching this war to heal its wounded
pride after the September 11 attacks. The U.S. is bent on
victory, thus it will use all its efforts to employ any weapon at
its disposal. The U.S. State Defense has alluded to the
possibility of using chemical and biological weapons when
necessary. Anthrax offers the U.S. an adequate pretext. But the
Taliban lacks the means of basic defense, let alone use biological
and chemical weapons.
As
another war tactic, the U.S. has been putting psychological
pressure on the Taliban through radiobroadcasts via the
Taliban-run Sawt Al Shari‘a radio. Through threats and
enticement, the Taliban fighters were asked to surrender to
American soldiers. Their morale had been affected, especially due
to the lack of active leadership. As an insular form of
government, the only means of communication in process is short
distance wireless lines, which have to be used cautiously to avoid
detection.
Sympathy
all over the Islamic world is the Taliban’s major weapon.
However, statements made by an Al Qa`ida official spokesperson
supporting the attacks on the U.S. has urged a lot less
compassion.
Perpetrating
an Internal Fracture in the Taliban Movement
Analysts
believe that America and its allies are fervently trying to place
an internal fracture in the Taliban ranks. For them, the U.S.
wants to achieve victory without losing its own military
personnel. These easy, pre-emptive measures started long before
the air strikes against Afghanistan and still persist in the
following:
1.
Inciting tribal and geographic conflict
Leaders
from the Pashtuns and other ethnic areas emerged in the Taliban
movement. Conflicts between these tribes date back centuries.
Among these tribes are “Galzay” and “Abaci.” Conflicts,
thus, can be fuelled in tribal terms. Besides, the Taliban
leadership in states other than Kandahar, Helmand, and Uzgan in
the southwest feels marginalized as the power is in the hands of
the people of Kandahar. This is an explosive situation and likely
to cause rifts among the Taliban leadership.
2.
Insinuating disagreements about the issue of bin Laden
A
group of the Taliban leaders opposed bin Laden’s residence in
Afghanistan. Hosting bin Laden has perpetrated the world’s
enmity towards Afghanistan and isolation from friendly states.
Late Mullah Muhammad Rabbani (Mullah Muhammad Omar’s deputy who
died a year earlier) spearheaded this group. Mullah Wakeel Ahmad
Mutawakil is one of the strong advocates of this idea. On the
other hand, Mullah Muhammad Omar and some of his supporters
consider bin Laden their guest. According to them,
expelling him from Afghanistan runs counter to Islamic Shari`a,
and Afghani traditions. Bin Laden’s issue - though a pious
matter - can be used to disrupt the Taliban’s order.
3.
Pakistani intelligence
Pakistani
Intelligence, with which a group of Taliban leaders are
associated, can influence this leadership and play a significant
role in shattering the Taliban’s solidarity.
4.
Fatwa
Some
sources in Pakistan and in states that are on friendly terms with
Pakistan may ask the Taliban scholars, in return for money, to
issue a fatwa to the effect that fighting to defend bin Laden is
not considered jihad. A fatwa of this nature will instigate
disagreements among pro-Taliban members: some will accept it and
others will resent it. If the fatwa does not disrupt the Taliban
line, it will, at least, weaken the religious factor, which
constitutes its basis.
5.
Materialistic temptations
Leading
figures in the Taliban can be tempted materialistically,
especially after nominating a temporary government, which is the
aim of the U.S. and its allies under the leadership of the exiled
Afghani King, Muhammad Thahir Shah. Many of the Taliban’s
moderate leaders will be elected to participate in the new
government. They will be offered tangible benefits to
shatter the Taliban’s solidarity.
Post-War
Arrangements
All
the mentioned scenarios are possible. Perpetrating internal rifts
within the Taliban, however, will not be easy for several reasons.
Taliban leaders liable to rebel are of a limited influence within
the Taliban Movement. And, anti-American sentiment has reached a
point where no pro-American will be tolerated. Non-conformism from
within the Taliban, moreover, will be deemed treason unless
dissidents are authorized by a religious fatwa.
The
U.S. is searching for an alternative with equal concern. Should it
fail in provoking an internal fracture in the Taliban it would be
bent on exposing the Taliban to a crushing defeat. Most probably,
the U.S. will not use its commandos on the ground war against the
Taliban. Instead, it will rely on the Northern Alliance who
have experience in similar attacks. Special U.S. forces will be
used as pre-emptive support that will shell targets before
breaking in.
After
subduing Kabul, the next step on the agenda will be to baffle the
Taliban’s resistance and eliminate the main sites of “Al
Qa`ida”, and install the temporary government under King Shah in
Kabul. The U.N. will, most probably, be in charge of establishing
and positioning U.N. peacekeeping forces that comprise of
countries not in allegiance with Islamic countries. Their role
will be to preserve the temporary government until it is
consolidated in Afghanistan, thus, facilitating rehabilitation.
Money will flow in to divert people’s attention. Taliban
resistance may persist for some time in areas far from the
capital. Such resistance may be brought to an end either by the
temporary government or through the natural course of time.
The
Counter Opinion
Running
counter to the aforesaid argument, some believe that the Taliban
will persist until it exhausts all its repertoire and logistics.
According to analysts, this will last for at least eight months if
the U.S. manage to firmly close Afghanistan’s neighboring
borders.
If
the Taliban are able to maintain the necessary logistics and
military equipment, the war may last longer. Afghanistan will be
“America’s bleeding wound.” Analysts believe that the
Taliban are able to obtain logistical provisions and military
equipment through the following resources:
1.
National donations from the Islamic world
Polls
indicate that donations for the Taliban have increased after U.S.
air strikes against Afghanistan. People are motivated to help the
Taliban either by their love for the Taliban, or by their hatred
for America.
2.
Iran
The
Taliban can benefit from Iran in its war against America. Iran
feels seriously threatened with the prospect of U.S. bases within
close proximity. A pro-American government in Afghanistan
constitutes no less danger to Iran. The Iranian society is liable
to burst due to its internal structure. Besides, the Sunni Balushi
inhabit the Iranian-Afghani borders. Only when Afghanistan
promises Iran - after stabilizing security in Afghanistan - to
stop harboring Iranian opposition groups, will it find an echo of
support from the Iranian government.
3.
China
The
Taliban can also obtain military and logistic aids from China.
China is aware that the U.S. incited Muslims in Eastern Turkistan
area to revolt against the Chinese government in order to dispose
of Muslims and wreck havoc in China. The U.S. has been encouraging
rebellious elements in Chinese borders to fuel tensions inside
China. Economic development in China, which poses a future threat
to the U.S. world hegemony, will experience a downturn.
4.
Russia
Russia
can also be exploited by the Taliban, especially with Putin in
power. Putin dreams of restoring the Soviet Empire and avenging
its defeat in Afghanistan on the U.S. This is Russia’s brilliant
chance to trick the U.S. into a ground war from which Russia had
previously suffered defeat.
Such
possibilities can prove to be a major help. However, analysts
condition them to the Taliban’s attitude towards the existing
contradictions among the above-mentioned states. They also believe
that the dependency of these states on the Taliban is of no less
significance, as they will have fewer problems after the U.S.
strikes. Benefiting from these possibilities is also confined to
the U.S.’s ultimate offer to the Taliban allies of either
guaranteeing their support or neutralizing them.
On
the internal level, the Taliban Movement may use the Afghani
people’s long abhorrence to any foreign invasion. The Taliban
can also benefit from their extensive experience in their war
against the Soviet Union and their civil wars. The topography of
Afghanistan and the Taliban’s ability to survive extremely harsh
conditions are a further major advantage.
Time
as an Enemy of the United States
Analysts
consider that the U.S. will face the problem of long distance.
Carrying military equipment to U.S. bases in the region,
especially if the war lasts longer than projected, will squander
its economy, urging them to retreat.
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