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A
Lebanese woman mourns Al Hariri in his home city of Sidon
(REUTERS)
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Here
is another heavy-weight destructive blast that took the life of
Lebanon’s five-time premier and billionaire businessman, Rafiq Al-Hariri.
The
crime immediately sent shockwaves not just across Lebanon or the
volatile Middle East, but also another bunch of world capitals –
all in different degrees. They are now directly or indirectly
weighing in.
The
traditional question is, of course, who? At first glance, both Syria
and Israel seem beneficiaries. The late Hariri made a strong stand
against extending the term of President Emile Lahoud to the degree
that he resigned in late October, reportedly to protest Syria’s
staunch support of Lahoud’s staying in power.
Counter
Motives
Killing
Hariri in such a grisly way would be a strong message to the growing
voices of Lebanese opposition, rejecting Syrian presence and
interference in the affairs of its tiny neighbor.
I
was about to accept that rationale when a Lebanese friend of mine
– a staunch opponent not just of Syria’s “dominance over
Lebanon” but also of the Syrian regime he always dubs “one of
the most repressive and stupid regimes of our beloved Arab world”
– strongly disagreed.
“You
know how much I hate the Syrian regime, but why didn’t it do it
when it really mattered; when Hariri was still in power and opposing
Syria’s interference? Also, weigh the profits against the losses,
Mr. Reporter!”
Why
didn’t the Syrians do it when it really mattered? |
|
My
head has actually been spinning like a windmill at a stormy night
since the bloody assassination took place and I was intent on
blocking the traditional “conspiracy theory” we are breastfed in
this part of the world. But that little chat with my friend did
actually bring my head back to a more violent spinning spree.
Yes.
Should the Syrian regime be behind that crime, what gains would they
expect? Silencing their opponents in Lebanon? Hardly so. The scenes
coming from Beirut – people screaming and shouting “Syria Out”
– dismiss such a conclusion. Also, and more importantly, the
Syrian regime knows well that its presence in Lebanon has
successfully drawn heavy-weight critics from abroad – France and
the United States.
The
Syrians say their presence in Lebanon is highly important for
preserving security and stability. Carrying out such a
well-organized, wide scope destructive operation could hardly be
seen as serving such a slogan.
Another
very important point that I almost missed – and was brought up by
my Lebanese friend – is the fact that Hariri was almost the only
bridge between Syria and the Lebanese opposition. In other words, he
was the only opposition figure with good relations with the Syrians.
Syrian vice-president Abdul Halim Khaddam was after all a family
friend of Hariri. It would not reasonable then to assassinate Hariri
at this critical time for the Syrians.
Another
Logic
Hariri
was almost the only bridge between Syria and the Lebanese
opposition. |
|
As
I was writing trying to get this article together, the Associated
Press reported that Washington declared it would recall “its envoy
from Damascus” for consultation.
That
fast??
I
do not know why the term “Greater Middle East” popped up in my
head instantly. Could there be other players, working under cover,
to create a smokescreen behind which other arrangements are
underway?
For
over 25 years, Hizbullah has managed to distinguish itself and take
great pride in being a resistance movement that forced Israel to
unilaterally withdraw from South Lebanon. But its biggest success
remains its ability to stir away from the turbulent political
atmosphere in Lebanon and to continue to gain the sympathy and
backing of all Lebanese political currents.
What
would happen now if Syria were forced out from Lebanon, under the
pressure of foreign powers, with the blessing of local opposition?
Would Hizbullah remain distant from domestic politics and would it
continue to enjoy the support of all the Lebanese? Tough questions,
evasive answers.
It
was only normal then for newspapers across the Middle East to voice
fears for Lebanon's future after the devastating bomb attack that
killed Hariri.
Local
press was more anguished for the future than with the loss of Hariri
himself – father of post-civil war construction – with one daily
warning that the country was on the brink of an abyss.
“The
pressing concern of the moment is how to prevent Lebanon from
tottering over the brink of an abyss,” the Daily Star said
Tuesday, February 15.
Is
Lebanon now on the brink of a civil war? No, that’s an
overstatement. Just skirmishes and unrest, maybe. In any case,
Hizbullah would be facing a critical situation, making its old
distant position and its focus on arch-rival Israel a tougher job.
Back
to conspiracy theory? |
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So,
Israel again? Back to conspiracy theory! But I guess this time
it’s really hard to ignore the one party that seems set for a very
big win. Internally, Israeli Prime Minister managed somehow – with
the Egyptian regime’s help anyway – to put the raging
Palestinian resistance on the backburner for now. Domestic troubles
stirred by Gaza settlers are growing more violent, however. A
diversion of attention or rather a smokescreen sounds in fact
tempting.
As
for the exchange of accusations between Syria and Israel over the
Hariri assassination, a closer look on who scored big and who lost
bigger might be enlightening here.
As
for the other part of the equation, Syria is now under unbearable
pressure from the United States and Europe, led by France. Syria is
Israel’s arch-rival enemy and the two states are almost
continuously on a state of undeclared war.
That
pressure – in particular by Washington – gives the Iraqi
quagmire a strong presence in the bloody picture, and the more we
delve into the assassination of Hariri the wider the picture gets
and the more beneficiaries we see registering in.
The
biggest, if not the only beneficiary, remains Israel. But what about
that unknown group that claimed responsibility for the crime?
“The
magnitude of the blast indicates that it was the work of state
security agencies and not just militant groups surfacing every now
and then,” Egyptian expert in Islamist militant groups, Diaa
Rashwan, told IslamOnline.net.
In
addition, an online statement attributed to Al-Qaeda denied Tuesday
that its men in the Levant were behind the killing of Hariri,
holding Syrian, Israeli or Lebanese intelligence services
accountable for it.
“Blaming
the jihadist and Salafist groups for what happened in Beirut is a
complete fabrication,” read the statement signed by a group
calling itself Al-Qaeda Organization in the Levant.
The
question now is: What happens next? No one could tell for sure of
course, but logically speaking, we expect the Syrians to start
counting their losses and the beneficiary to start cashing in.
*
Khaled Mamdouh is an editor on IslamOnline.net’s News
Desk. He is also a radio announcer, and journalist and translator
for several Arabic magazines. You can reach him at khaledm69@hotmail.com
