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Indonesian
president-elect Susilo Bambang Yudhyono |
The
landslide victory of Susilo Bambang Yudhyono, former army general
and minister in ousted President Megawati Sukarnoputri’s cabinet,
is a positive result for Indonesian democracy. But Bambang, or SBY
as he is popularly known, has little time to celebrate, as he is
under intense pressure from the public at large to extricate
Indonesia from the various predicaments that have afflicted this
vast Muslim nation since the end of General Suharto’s iron-fisted
rule in 1998.
Though
official results are yet to be announced - they will be made public
on October 5 - Bambang has made it clear that he intends to turn
Indonesia around and solve the problems that have gripped the
archipelago for far too long. He is already in search of a cabinet
that will support his policies. But he can also be certain of
stiffer opposition, what with democracy starting to take shape in
Indonesia, and with Megawati’s party, the Indonesian Democratic
Party for Struggles (PDI-P), joining with Golkar, or Gologan Karya,
Indonesia’s largest political party, to form an opposition to
Bambang.
Megawati,
the daughter of former President Ahmad Sukarno, ruled almost without
opposition in parliament, her opponents preferring not to topple a
lady President. But her unpopularity was made obvious with unending
street demonstrations against her regime across Indonesia.
Economic
Woes
Bambang
will have to deal with the Damocles’ sword of the International
Monetary Fund’s (IMF) loans.
“Failing
to deal with this issue will tarnish the image of the Bambang
regime,” and will reduce confidence in the government, according
to Santono Nagara, a Jakarta-based political analyst. He added that
pressure was already building up on Bambang to avoid becoming
another “asset to the IMF.”
“Indonesia’s
economy is blinking red, and the IMF’s outstanding loans are
turning the indicators further into emergency. It will be the
priority of the Bambang cabinet to redress this situation, but they
should not fall prey … [to] the IMF, as the regime of Megawati
did,” said Drajat Wibowo, a member of a pressure group called Tim
Indonesia Bangkit, or Indonesia Revival Team, during a September
press conference in Jakarta.
SBY
did not propose any new solutions to Indonesia’s economic
stagnation during his campaign for the presidency; instead he showed
the public how the Megawati regime had failed in that regard. Though
he formulated some applicable ideas, he did not elaborate on how he
would remedy the economy in the present circumstances, nor did he
give details of where funding for his proposals would come from.
An
analyst with the Lembaga Adat Melayu (LAM) socio-economic group
stated that Bambang’s government will have to reduce spending and
increase aid to small and medium entrepreneurs.
“There
is no way Indonesia will get out of this mess without a strong and
solid economic plan. Yet any plans formulated by the regime will
have to be funded, and this is where the problem will arise,” said
Isa Selamat, adding that the only way out would be by cutting down
on government red tape and corruption, and increasing bureaucratic
efficiency.
Selamat
added that oil and gas revenue generated by the government in Aceh,
Riau and Sumatra, as well as revenue from tourism, forestry,
agriculture and manufacturing should be sufficient for funding the
new projects.
Bambang
has allied himself with Muslim-based parties. |
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However,
Selamat concludes that Bambang will still be forced to turn to the
IMF and the World Bank for additional funding, inevitably making his
government “a victim of these conglomerates.”
Foreign
Investment
Another
alternative would be for the Bambang government to encourage
investment through finding a solution for the security situation,
putting an end to the constant attacks from obscure terrorist
groups.
Economic
indicators suggest that foreign investment, largely from Singapore,
Malaysia, the United States, and Australia, has dipped to a
dangerous low, and that, under the Megawati government, very few new
projects have been developed in the country. At only 20% of GDP,
investment is low.
According
to Alim Thana, a member of the Islamically-based National Mandate
Party that supported Bambang in the presidential polls, short of a
miracle, “there will be no great changes in Indonesia under
Bambang. He won the polls with ease not because he is the miracle
man who will bring solace to the poor and needy, but because he was
obviously the better choice among candidates.” He added that,
“We all know here that the situation is not likely to change
overnight. Bambang needs more than an economic miracle to turn
Indonesia around. He needs strong advisers, he needs to listen to
them too, and he also needs to go down to earth in solving problems
that are challenging the nation.”
Thana
explained that the government will have to tackle corruption first
and then terrorism. He added that the eruption of terror attacks was
due to Indonesia’s failure to listen to and understand the views
of all the country’s races and groups.
He
also noted that more needed to be done to reduce poverty, which
afflicts 16.7% of Indonesia’s 212 million people.
Before
parliament, Megawati boasted, a few days after the polls closed,
that her government had succeeded in reducing the numbers of poor
people in Indonesia from 48.4 million people in 1999 to 37.3 million
in 2003.
Megawati
also claimed that her government had performed well on the
macroeconomic front, with an increase in GDP per capita and a
reduction in the deficit. She also said that government borrowing
dropped from 100 percent in 2000 to 60 percent in 2004.
The
above suggests that Bambang will seek to continue Indonesia’s
relationship with the IMF in much the same way the Megawati
government did, according to Selamat. Such a course would “bring
more suffering to the poor and needy,” added Selamat, urging the
government to draft an economic plan that would be acceptable to
all.
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Will
Indonesia’s brutal crackdown on Aceh finally end? |
Another
expert on Indonesian economy expressed alarm at the imminent
increase in oil prices, a move that would bring a string of other
increases in its wake, placing increasing pressure on the Bambang
administration.
However,
University of Indonesia economist Chatib Basri was quoted in the
September 23 Jakarta Post as saying that Bambang will be able to
increase the price of the much needed commodity without trouble.
"It's
better that he takes the decision now rather than later, while he's
still hugely popular. The key is communication. He should educate
and communicate with the public well that the decision is not only
economically rational, it will also not harm the poor," Chatib
reportedly said to the Jakarta Post.
In
September, Indonesia’s House of Representatives (DPR) voted to cut
fuel subsidies. The new government was given three options: raise
fuel prices, reduce fuel consumption, or boost fuel efficiency.
Either decision will be a difficult one for the Bambang government
to make.
Security
The
issues of terrorism, security, and Islamic extremism have dominated
the Indonesian scene since the first of the bombings in 2000, well
before 9/11 triggered the US-led war on terror. The above, coupled
with separatism in Aceh and Papua, dormant sectarian conflicts in
several regions, and a possible upsurge in the conflicts in the
Moluccas and Poso will be the breakfast talk of Bambang and his new
cabinet once it is nominated, according to Selamat.
Bambang
has pledged to modernize the military and police forces to enhance
domestic security and build a strong defense system. He has also
allied himself with Muslim-based parties, including the Party
Keadilaan Sejahtera (PKS) and the PAN, which are small when compared
to Golkar or PDI-P, but are good coalition partners for Bambang. He
also has the tacit support of large sections of Golkar and former
President Abdurrahman Wahid’s party.
It
is believed Bambang plans to pull the military out of Aceh. |
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With
that kind of support, the newly elected President of Indonesia has a
major factor in his favor: “He has indicated to the Muslim
fundamentalists that the major Muslim parties are in coalition with
him. With the support of the PKS and the PAN, Bambang wants to rest
assured that there will be less terrorist attacks against soft
targets in Indonesia,” said Isa Selamat.
However,
a lot will depend on his approach to Aceh, and how he reacts in the
case of a renewed outbreak of the Moluccas’ conflict, where
thousands have died in sectarian strife since 2001. The Free Aceh
Movement (GAM) has indicated that they believe the war in Aceh will
continue, thanks to vested interests in the province’s rich
natural resources, which make Aceh the second largest producer of
oil, gas and agricultural products in Indonesia.
“We
believe that war will go on and that there is no reason for Bambang
to put an end to the strife in Aceh,” read a press statement by
Backhtiar Abdullah of the GAM-ASNLF, based in Sweden. Abdullah is
confronted with the fragmentation of GAM into break-away groups of
those who want a political solution to the conflict.
“He
will not bring people to trial for what they did in the past, but he
will not ask the army to go into another all-out war in case the
security situation in Aceh deteriorates. Bambang is a negotiator and
he is a democrat,” said Rosli Adnan, a member of GAM–Aksi
Politik, a GAM-splinter group.
Bambang
is credited with peace moves in Aceh and the Moluccas during his
tenure as Security Minister under Megawati. He disagreed with
Megawati’s policy of all-out war in Aceh, and he says he has plans
for furthering peace in the country overall. According to Ustaz
Hasbiullah, another former GAM member who is currently affiliated
with Bambang’s Democratic Party (PD), the president-elect plans to
achieve this by bringing GAM back to the negotiating table and
making them an offer that they can’t refuse.
Hasbiullah
believe Bambang plans to pull the military out of Aceh and reach a
settlement with GAM whereby they would lay down their arms in return
for a say in the administration of the province.
“We
need peace. The streets of Aceh are waiting for an offer from
Bambang for long-term peace. The GAM is divided into a military
group that wants war [and] a political wing that wants peace.
Politics will win,” he said.
He
added that most of the bombings in Indonesia after October 2002 Bali
blast were probably acts of desperation by GAM’s military wing.
“If Bambang handles Aceh well, bombings like the one at the
Australian Embassy may not occur again.”
Kazi Mahmood is
a Malaysia-based veteran journalist with 20 years experience
covering political affairs. You can reach him at kazi_mahmood@yahoo.com
