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“The
next war in the Middle East will be fought over water, not politics.”
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Francesca
De Châtel reports from Paris on her visit to the former Secretary General of
the United Nations, Boutros Ghali, and his convictions about possible water wars
in the 21st century.
Professor
Boutros Boutros Ghali, the ex-Secretary General of the United Nations, has said
he still believes water scarcity could lead to war in the 21st century. He
reiterated the concern he first voiced in 1985 when he said that “the next war
in the Middle East will be fought over water, not politics.”
He
predicts that explosive population growth and the intensification of
agricultural cycles throughout the Middle East and Africa will put great
pressure on the already-dwindling water reserves of the region – a pressure
that could result in armed conflict. Today, on the eve of the Third World Water
Forum, he has again called for cooperation, not confrontation, between the
countries facing the looming threat of water scarcity.
The
Nile Basin: A Perfect Example
Taking
the Nile Basin as an example of the difficulties involved in equitable water
distribution, Boutros Ghali explained that current use of Nile waters is sure to
increase as riparian countries develop their agriculture and their economy.
Countries like Sudan and Ethiopia today still rely on rain to water their crops;
once they embrace irrigated agriculture, their downstream neighbor Egypt will
inevitably receive less water. If in addition population figures in the region
continue to soar, he foresees serious consequences.
“They
will all be vying for the same water and the situation will be so dramatic that
they will take to arms. Water may not be the apparent reason for the conflict,
but it will certainly lie at its origins. If, for instance, 50,000 refugees
cross the border from Ethiopia to Sudan because of drought and they attack a
village, then Sudan will attack Ethiopia over this: ostensibly this will not be
a conflict about water, but the problem of water will nevertheless lie at the
root of this military intervention.”
A
Long History in Water Affairs
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Sadat’s
offer of the waters of the Nile to Israel created public outrage in
Egypt and beyond.
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Boutros
Ghali has long recognized the gravity of the water question in the Middle East.
During his period as Egypt’s minister of foreign affairs from 1977 to 1991, he
repeatedly witnessed that emotions can run high over the sharing of the
region’s most precious resource.
Thus,
when President Sadat offered the waters of the Nile to Israel in a bid to open
discussions about the West Bank and Gaza, there was public outrage in Egypt and
beyond, with upstream countries protesting that the Nile waters were not
President Sadat’s to distribute at will. Boutros Ghali sees this as just one
example of how water can become a political issue.
“It
is interesting to see how water was used as a political tool here. Water lies at
the core of the problems in Israel. This is why [the Israelis] are interested in
the Occupied Territories; not for the territory, but for the water within that
territory. The problem of water will definitely have to be addressed [as part of
a peace agreement]: Palestinians only have access to about 18 per cent of water
within the Occupied Territories. This inequality needs to be resolved.”
In
1978 tensions over water reached a new peak when President Sadat threatened
Ethiopia, which controls 85 per cent of the Nile waters, with military
intervention if it embarked on any development projects that might affect the
flow of the Nile northwards to Egypt. The incident was not well timed for
Boutros Ghali: he had been working to strengthen Egypt’s relationships with
its downstream neighbors and initiate a dialogue between riparian states.
“Water
was my main obsession,” he remembers. “I tried to raise awareness of the
importance of cooperation between riparian states over the sharing of the Nile
waters; I wanted to show Egyptians that the security of Egypt is related to the
south, to Sudan and Ethiopia, rather than to the east and Israel.”
“Fraternity”
Demands Oil for Water
In
this context Boutros Ghali created an organisation that brought together the
ministers of irrigation of the nine riparian states: Sudan, Egypt, Ethiopia,
Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and Congo. Called Undugu, which means
fraternity in Swahili, the group aimed to build a comprehensive development plan
in the Nile Basin.
The
ambitious scheme proposed by Egypt outlined the construction of a series of
hydroelectric dams along the Nile, which would create a network of hydropower
plants through the region. The generated electricity would then be exported to
other regions in exchange for hard currency; an electricity grid that covered
Uganda’s proposed Inga Dam and Egypt’s Aswan Dam would transfer power to the
networks of Jordan, Syria, Turkey and beyond to the European Community.
Unfortunately,
lack of trust between member states and political instability in Ethiopia, Sudan
and Uganda meant the project was doomed to failure. “From the beginning there
was mistrust between members: upstream countries were suspicious of Egypt’s
demands and wanted something in exchange for the water they would cede to Egypt.
They even said that they would demand a barrel of oil for each barrel of water
they gave away.”
The
Technical/Political See-Saw
Boutros
Ghali is pensive: “[It] raises the question whether the water problem can be
solved on a technical level only, or whether you need a political dimension. My
belief is that you need a political dimension; you cannot receive from an
upstream country without offering something in exchange.
“I
had a discussion with the Egyptian minister of irrigation. He believed the
problems should be solved on a technical level and that introducing politics
only complicated things. But my theory was quite the opposite: unless there is
political consensus among members, it is impossible to seek assistance from
international organisations and donor countries on a technical level.”
Boutros
Ghali still believes that the threat of water wars in the Nile Basin can be
averted through the creation of an international organisation that monitors and
coordinates the distribution of water according to a set of objective criteria.
Emphasising the importance of a foreign mediator, he says a higher body needs to
be brought in to play a facilitating role between member states and to ensure
the criteria set by the organisation are observed.
“One
of the problems of setting up projects in developing countries is that they are
not able to embrace long-term projects; they are only interested in finding
short-term solutions,” he says. He believes an international organisation
could provide a solid base on which to build a sustainable and lasting
collaboration project in the Nile Basin.
At
first sight the recently created Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) appears to satisfy
these requirements. Backed by international organisations such as the World Bank
and the United Nations Development Project, the NBI is endorsed by all riparian
states and aims to achieve “sustainable socio-economic development through the
equitable utilisation of (…) Nile Basin water resources. Poverty
and ignorance complicate any kind of reform in these countries.”
“Poverty and ignorance complicate any kind of reform in these countries.”
Boutros Ghali |
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Yet
like its predecessor Undugu, the NBI is wrestling with the long history of
mistrust between the nine riparian states. Its initiatives to date have all
focussed on confidence-building; working on the so-called “win-win projects”
that are beneficial to all and postponing the resolution of key issues to a
later date. The question is when these issues will be addressed and whether the
institution will be strong enough to resolve the inevitable conflicting
interests of member states.
While
the political dimension has to play a crucial role in the future resolution of
water shortage, Boutros Ghali believes raising awareness at a community level is
also important. He explains that there is no tradition of restricting water use,
or of encouraging thriftiness: people don’t attach value to water because it
is free. “The distribution of water in the city is very cheap, and the
distribution of water on the land is gratis. The day you put a tax on water,
people will behave differently.”
But
he admitted that addressing water scarcity was a complex challenge in the
developing world. “Poverty and ignorance complicate any kind of reform in
these countries,” he says. “If you tell people they should save water
because there will be scarcity in 10 years, they will say to you: ‘I don’t
even know how I will find food for my children tomorrow, so don’t talk to me
about the problems in the next 10 years. Allah will solve the problems that lie
10 years away.”
Francesca De Châtel
Francesca de Chatel is a journalist and writer specializing in water issues
in North Africa and the Middle East. She may be reached at: dechatel@hetnet.nl.
