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What Do They Have to Talk About?
By Omer Bin Abdullah
05/06/2001
Formalities have yet to be worked out for summit talks between Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Pakistani military ruler General Pervez Musharraf, but the "puppet chief minister" of Indian Occupied Jammu, along with his Kashmiri counterpart, Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah, has declared that there would be absolutely no change in India's policy on Kashmir.
Vajapyee is certainly entering this dialogue with some good cards in his hands. Post-Cold War India is now the apple of America's eye and an important part of the American network of anti-Islamic propaganda. No doubt, the Indian leadership deserves credit for building up the country into an economic and technological powerhouse, while drawing sustenance from both Cold War rivals.
A strong Indian community has also surfaced in the U.S. American Indians have significantly increased their numbers as well as their pro-activity. Nationally, they have grown from 800,000 in 1990 to more than 1.6 million in 2001. In Washington D.C. alone, the Indian population has swelled by unexpected proportions, from 38,000 in 1990 to more than 78,000 in 2000, apparently becoming the most populous Asian group in the area. In Northern Virginia, the hub of the region's high-tech industry, the number of Indians rose from 13,900 in 1990 to more than 36,100 in 2000. The government's profile of the typical H1B (INS work visa authorization classification) worker is an Indian male, 25 to 29, making about $45,000 a year.
Some claim that that in Silicon Valley, California, there are 25,000 Indian millionaires.
According to B. Lindsay Lowell, Director of Research at Georgetown University's Institute for the Study of International Migration, about 425,000 workers had H1B visas in 2000, and about 40% of them (170,000) came from India. Counting their dependents, the number of Indians in this country related to the program is thought to be about 270,000.
These numbers translate into clout on Capitol Hill. New Delhi is now publicly closely ensconced with Tel Aviv, which gives it additional leverage. According to some observers, Indian-Americans have formed a lobby second in influence only to that of the Israeli's.
The Republicans' urge to needle China only adds to India's comfort. One immediate result is an American decision to resume military cooperation with India after a break of almost three years. Such cooperation, never before conducted at a significant level, was cut off completely and sanctions were imposed on India after its nuclear tests in May 1998.
Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's visit to India to consult on the Bush administration's plan to build a missile defense system and possibly abandon the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty was a profound step in India's favor. General. Henry H. Shelton, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, visited India to work on building "a closer relationship" between the two nations' military forces. There are reports that Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill conveyed to Indian Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha that the Bush administration has assured that it will lift the economic sanctions.
U.S.-Indian military talks began, despite the sanctions, when Jaswant Singh, who serves as both Indian Foreign and Defense Minister, met in Washington with Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld. Singh also met Bush in an unexpected White House encounter on April 6th, at the height of the crisis over the detention on China's Hainan Island of a 24-member American aircrew.
Singh was meeting with National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice when Bush dropped in and then invited Singh to the Oval Office for a 45-minute chat.
This was not an "accidental chat," but rather one that was well planned. One must recall that Secretary of State Colin Powell, appearing before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee on January 18, 2001, and spelled out Bush foreign policy plans. He said,
"There is another country, Mr. Chairman, that I want to mention before I leave this regional perspective, a country that should grow more and more focused in the lens of our foreign policy. That country is India."
He continued on to say, "We must deal more wisely with the world's largest democracy. Soon to be the most populous country in the world, India has the potential to help keep the peace in the vast Indian Ocean area and its periphery. We need to work harder and more consistently to assist India in this endeavor, while not neglecting our friends in Pakistan."
"As you know, this is a delicate process in the midst of what by any accurate account would be labeled an arms race between these two countries. Recently, however, there have been encouraging signs, including India's extended moratorium on operations in Kashmir and Pakistan's restraint along the Line of Control," he added.
Pakistan, on the other hand, enters the talks with a set of handicaps. The first is a $35 billion loan and International Monetary Fund's (IMF) conditions imposed on the nation tied to that outstanding debt.
Domestically, secular forces are publicly airing their view that Pakistan should accept defeat and give up its pursuit of seeking implementation of U.N. resolutions. They seem to believe that the end of Kashmir would mean the end of Islamic influence in Pakistan. This is what India, the U.S., and Western countries desire.
On the international front, the Pakistani information machine has been outgunned by the tripartite forces of New Delhi, Tel Aviv, and the U.S., which have succeeded in painting Pakistan as a "fundamentalist" and "unstable" state, thus unfit to own a nuclear deterrent and unfit to be heard in international forums.
Within these limitations, Pakistan cannot win Kashmir, neither by force nor within the United Nations. Given this, then what does Musharraf plan on discussing in the summit talks? Vajpayee, with his Hindu fundamentalist agenda, will certainly approach the talks in the spirit of Simla - with the swagger of a victor.
No miracles are expected when Musharraf and Vajpayee meet. However, the fact that Musharraf has agreed to unconditional talks signals that something may be in the offing. Perhaps, Pakistan will become obliged to be "pragmatic".
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