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Israeli 17th Knesset Polls: What's New There?

Olmert champions unilateral solutions. (Reuters)

By Khaled Mamdouh, IOL Staff Writer

CAIRO, March 27, 2006 (IslamOnline.net) - Despite the massive stakes in Israel's 17th general election, politicians, especially front-runners, were battling to counter voter apathy that is threatening a historically low turnout.

At a quick glimpse, the most notable first in the general elections is the fact that three big parties, instead of the usual two, are seeking the helm of power in the Jewish state.

In addition to the two historically main parties, Likud and Labor, a third nascent party is not just participating, but actually leading and is tipped to win, namely, the Kadima Party.

All in all, 31 political parties are competing for the 120 Knesset seats up for grabs on Tuesday, March 28, when exactly 5,014,622 eligible voters, according to the Knesset's official website, are to cast ballots in 10,000 polling stations across the country.

Key Players

Peretz champions "negotiations with moderate Palestinians". (Reuters)

Peretz champions "negotiations with moderate Palestinians," according to Reuters.

A look at the programs of the main players shows instantly that security is the decisive factor this time; this is typical of almost all Israeli general elections.

As for the front-runner Kadima, led by acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the word "unilateral solutions" tops the agenda.

Kadima promises the Israeli voters that it will define Israel's permanent borders by 2010, and that it will also "disengage" from the Palestinian territories by evacuating small settlements across the West Bank, annexing major settlement blocks, and using the separation barrier as the Jewish State's borders.

While it speaks of "negotiating peace with Palestinians," Kadima sees no viable partner on the Palestinian side and vows not to let that hinder its plans; that is to say, it will act unilaterally.

Click here to read Kadima's electoral program on the nascent party's website.

According to opinion polls, Olmert's Kadima is expected to win 36-38 seats.

The Likud, Sharon's former party that is now led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is typically adopting the same hawkish line.

"No unilateral withdrawals. No strengthening of the terror organizations. No negotiating with the Palestinians until they fully acknowledge Israel's right to exist. There is a full cessation of terror and incitement, any future negotiations will be on a reciprocal basis only. No withdrawal from the Golan Heights."

The program goes on to include other terms that, in effect, kill any hopes for peace with the Palestinians, under its first headline, Defense and Foreign Affairs.

Netanyahu's (Bibi) Likud is tipped to come in third, winning a total of 14 seats, according to polls. Observers and analysts believe that if the party didn't reach its project outcome, it could mean the end of Bibi's leadership of the right-wing party.

Click here to read Likud's electoral program on the party's website.

The left-wing Labor Party, led by Amir Peretz, throws its weight behind social issues, putting them first on its electoral program. Concerning security issues and relations with the Palestinians, the party that is generally viewed by Arabs as being dovish, is calling for the strengthening of what it dubs "moderates" among the Palestinians seeking solutions or disengagement.

In that regard, Peretz even visited Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah and held a press conference with him, breaking with a de facto boycott by Israel on the Palestinian authority following the victory of resistance movement Hamas in Palestinian general elections.

Labor is expected to grab 21 seats, according to opinion polls on the election eve, and Peretz made it clear it was ready to join Olmert in a Kadima-led coalition government. This cast shadows on Labor's real intentions on seeing through with its political program.

Click here to read Labor's electoral program on the party's website.

It is also worth mentioning here that Labor is not running the elections alone. Its list is actually called Labor-Meimad, comprising the left Labor and smaller Meimad Party.

A total of 31 lists are vying in Israel's election.

Click to see a list of parties and candidates on the Knesset's website.

Voter Apathy

Netanyahu typically adopts the same hawkish line with his famous "NO's". (Reuters)

Reading through the political programs of the key players makes clear at least one highly decisive issue which is at stake in the elections, namely Israel's permanent borders. Ever since its establishment in 1948, the Jewish state has yet to have internationally recognized borders.

However, opinion polls, news reports, and all other relevant signs make it clear that Israel may suffer a historic low voter turnout this time.

Only two days before voters headed to polls, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported that Israeli political parties were struggling to snap Israel's electorate out of its apathy by playing up the high stakes for the country while religious groups went so far as to warn that people who didn't vote would be damned.

"I urge all the citizens of Israel to exercise their civic right which will allow them to determine the destiny of the country," Olmert told Israelis.

With polls suggesting just 65 percent of Israelis intend to vote, Olmert's number two, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, hammered home the point at a Saturday night rally.

"I don't understand why people are telling me 'Kadima will win the elections in any case, so what's the point in voting?'" said Livni.

"Dramatic decisions lie ahead... Pick up the phone, tell people to get out of the house," she said, referring to Kadima's plans to finalize Israel's borders by 2010.

Under Israel's ultra-pluralist political system, any party that wins 2 percent of the votes cast qualifies for the minimum three-seat representation in parliament, meaning that the lower the turnout, the easier it is for small factions to get in, taking seats that would otherwise go to the big ones.

"All the big parties are worried," political analyst Hanan Cristal told AFP.

Leading Likud right-winger Uzi Landau acknowledged that there was a problem, particularly among younger voters.

"The reason is they are fed up with Israeli politics and they hate the guts of us Israeli politicians," he told reporters. "We have to ask ourselves why."

"The number two on the Labor slate, Isaac Herzog, suggested voters no longer believed the extravagant pledges of politicians, who had a tendency to portray everything as a matter of life and death for the Jewish state.

"I always think that in Israel, a national crisis lasts about six hours," he said.

But Calev Ben-David of the Israel Project think-tank rejected the projections of low turnout as being overblown.

"I think that most Israelis understand this is a really decisive election," he said.

The lowest voter turnout in Israel's history was in 2003, with only 68.9 percent of eligible voters casting their votes. The highest turnout was in 1949's first general elections that reached a record high of 86.9 percent of eligible voters.

Sharon Looms Large

Coma-stricken Sharon is "missed" by the Israelis.

The other unmistaken feature of Israel's 17th general elections is the fact that coma-stricken Sharon remains a strong presence over the electoral process. The party he founded last year is the front-runner and his own plan of "unilateral solutions" seems to be the nearest to seeing the light.

Despite the fact that a devastating stroke ended his political career early last January, in political conversations across Israel, the name you hear most is Sharon, according to a report on Mercury News.

Ever since Sharon lapsed into a near fatal coma, Israel's political dynamics have largely been frozen. But widespread predictions that Sharon's new political party Kadima would collapse without Sharon "the Bulldozer" have so far proved illusive.

On the Palestinian side, it is clear that the Israeli elections are receiving the cold shoulder, so to speak.

"In previous elections, we were very interested because the difference was between the right and the left. But today, to a large extent, there is no difference. All are rightists," Nabil Sha'ath, a former Palestinian negotiator and cabinet minister, commented to Israeli English daily Ha'aretz.

According to the daily, in a report headlined "Palestinians unmoved by Israeli elections, say all parties are right-wing," "Palestinians see almost a consensus among the three main parties (Kadima, Labor, and Likud) over the building of the separation fence in the West Bank."

The paper went on to say that "the three top parties have also voiced support for retaining large Jewish settlement blocs in the West Bank, a move which the Palestinians say will deny them a viable state."

It quoted a Palestinian resident of Ramallah as commenting that "all of them are competing among each other who can shed more Palestinian blood."

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