A French Communist Party activist sticks a “no” poster alongside a “yes” one. (Reuters)

Additional Reporting by Hadi Yahmid, IOL Correspondent

PARIS, May 28, 2005 (IslamOnline.net & News Agencies) – With opinion polls giving the edge to the “no” camp in France's historic referendum on the European Constitution, the swing minority vote gains more weight with its ability to tilt the balance.

The majority of the sizable Muslim minority, estimated at six million, is expected to vote in favor of the constitution, which aims to simplify the operating rules in the expanded European Union (EU).

The influential Union of French Islamic Organizations (UOIF), a main player in the umbrella French Council of Muslim Faith (CFCM), has issued a statement, urging Muslims to vote “yes.”

Paris Mosque Rector and CFCM leader Dalil Boubakeur said in earlier statements that he would personally vote in favor of the constitution, though he stopped short of urging fellow French Muslims to do the same.

However, the French Muslim Coalition, a non-CFCM partner, issued a “No” statement.

IslamOnline.net’s correspondent says that though the Muslim majority traditionally supports leftists, its leaders are now at good terms with the ruling center-right Union for a Popular Majority (UMP) party, which has been tirelessly drumming up support for the “yes” camp.

UMP leader and Industry Minister Nicolas Sarkozy has also cemented bonds with Muslim leaders in the country.

According to IOL's correspondent, the main Jewish umbrella group in France has not taken any side until Saturday, May 28.

Final opinion polls gave an edge to the “no” camp, with the IFOP institute suggesting that up to 56 percent of voters could oppose the text.

But the polls further showed that about one in five voters remains undecided, meaning that a last-minute surge in support for the “yes” camp led by President Jacques Chirac could turn the tables.

The French “no” campaign has been basically feeding on fears that the EU constitution would harm France’s social welfare and lead to job losses in view of a new open-market era.

All 25 EU member states must approve the constitution for it to take effect.

Political Price

A “no” vote would likely deal a harsh blow to 72-year-old Chirac, who just celebrated 10 years in office, and compromise his political legacy, according to IOL's correspondent.

The UMP is campaigning alongside its junior partner in government, the Union for French Democracy (UDF), as well as the opposition Socialist party (PS) and the Greens.

They are battling a disparate “no” camp made up of the far-right National Front of Jean-Marie Le Pen, the Communist and Trotskyist parties, nationalist Euroskeptics and a smattering of UMP and PS dissidents.

Chirac made his make-or-break pitch for the treaty late Thursday, May 26, in a live television address to the nation, warning the country's 42 million voters that a “no” to the constitution would diminish France 's influence in Europe .

“On Sunday, each one of you will have in his hands part of the destiny of France ,” he said.

European Appeal

Schroeder delivers a speech in Toulouse to drum support for the “yes” camp. (Reuters)

Experts fear the anticipated “no” vote could really send shockwaves through the country and the EU, reported Agence France-Presse (AFP).

Should France -- one of the EU's six founding members -- reject the constitution, it could leave the treaty dead in its tracks and plunge the EU into a period of uncertainty.

“ Europe at stake,” read the front-page headline of the daily Liberation on Saturday, with two dice spelling out the words “oui” and “non.”

Official campaigning ended late Friday, with last-minute appeals for a “yes” vote from two of Europe 's most prominent left-wing leaders, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero.

Schroeder and Zapatero attended “yes” rallies in France Friday to try to win over crucial swing voters.

Schroeder, whose country became the ninth EU member state to ratify the constitution on Friday, urged the French to vote “yes.”

“A strong and proud Europe is unthinkable without France ,” he wrote in a commentary published Saturday in Le Figaro newspaper.

Zapatero echoed the same message.

“Europe cannot go forward without France ,” he told a crowd of 3,000 in the northern city of Lille .

“Europe needs France , its enthusiasm, its culture, its strength and its momentum,” he told the rally, adding that Europe would not make progress without France .

Spain was the first country to hold a referendum on the EU constitution on February 20 and those voting backed it overwhelmingly.

Former French president Giscard d'Estaing, the chairman of the convention that drew up the constitution, said that if the treaty was rejected, the only solution would be to hold another vote on the same text.

“We will not start working again, it is too heavy and there will not be the political will to do so”.