“I will at the first opportunity try to meet with (Geagea), even in jail,” Aoun said after a meeting with Geagea’s wife. (Reuters)

By Abdel Raheem Ali, IOL Staff

CAIRO, May 9, 2005 (IslamOnline.net) – The return of Lebanese Christian leader Michel Aoun from a 14-year exile in France has mixed the political cards in the country with speculations about the emergence of new alliances.

“His return has definitely turned the political landscape in Lebanon upside down given the popularity enjoyed by the Christian Maronite leader,” Qasim Qasir, a Lebanese political analyst, told IslamOnline.net over the phone Monday, May 9.

Aoun received a rapturous welcome Saturday, May 6, from tens of thousands of ecstatic supporters wearing a shirt with his image and carrying an orange flag, the color of his Free Patriotic Movement.

But Qasir said it is hard to speculate what the future holds for Lebanon’s politics until Aoun announces his next step.

The expert said Aoun could seek an alliance with the banned Lebanese Forces (LF) of jailed Maronite warlord leader Samir Geagea, his once arch foe.

“If this happens, it would be a new Maronite coalition serving the anti-Syrian opposition camp,” Qasir noted.

Aoun mended fences with Geagea on Sunday, May 7, backing calls for the release of the ex-fighter whom he fought in 1990 for control of the Christian enclave as the civil war drew to a close.

“We should remember the past and...not make the mistakes that have happened. This past has become part of history and we must look to the future because those who do not look forward fall into the first hole,” he said after receiving Geagea’s wife Streda.

“I will at the first opportunity try to meet with (Geagea), even in jail.”

More Alliances

Aoun received a hero welcome in Beirut. (Reuters)

Qasir also expects Aoun to seek an alliance with Druze leader Talal Arsalan, a closet rival of prominent Druze opposition leader Walid Jumblatt, and Michel Al-Murr.

The expert not that both men are pro-Syrian and their would-be alliance with Aoun would deal a blow to the anti-Syrian camp.

Aoun and Jumblatt took a swipe at one another with the latter calling Aoun’s return as a “tsunami”.

Jumblatt further accused the ex-general of wanting to take credit for the Syrian pullout from Lebanon after 29 years of military presence.

“The assassination of (former premier Rafiq) Hariri secured the Syrian withdrawal, not the man who is returning to us this afternoon like a tsunami,” he said on Saturday.

Aoun, for his part, rallied against repeatedly calls by Jumblatt for President Emile Lahoud to step down.

“No one can pressure the president to resign. They must wait for the new parliament,” he said.

Deepening Differences

Amin Qamouria, another Lebanese expert, limited the influence of Aoun’s return to his Maronite community.

“Aoun is part of the Lebanese Christian community and his influence should not be exaggerated,” he said.

“Lebanon’s ethnic mosaic puts a curb on the influence of everybody, including Aoun.”

Qamouria believes that the return would deepen differences between the Maronites, who are already divided into four main groups led by Aoun, Geagea, Qornet Shehwan Gathering and secularists.

“It is impossible to get the four of them adopting the same agenda,” he contended.

But Ziad Majid, another political analyst, predicted that Aoun would work on building a new Lebanon based on a nationalist agenda.

“Yet, it is too early to take Aoun’s stance for granted as 14 years in exile have undoubtedly made him reconsider his vision,” he told IOL.

There are signs of rapprochement between Aoun and Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, who dispatched Sunday an aide to congratulate Aoun on his return.

Aoun has said that members of his Free Patriotic Movement will contest the parliamentary polls.

He has not said whether he would run for parliament, though he has hinted he would consider the presidency.

Aoun's defeat at a Syrian-led attack on his powerbase in and around Beirut on Oct. 13, 1990, marked the end of the Lebanese civil war.

He sought refuge at the French embassy before leaving for exile several months later.

But despite his defeat and absence, the popularity of the 70-year-old former general did not fade.

Detractors say his military gambles led to the defeat of the Maronites in the civil war.