Blair’s “trust problem” caused a downtrend in Labour’s ratings. (Reuters)

CAIRO, April 27, 2005 (IslamOnline.net) – Just one week before the voting day, British Prime Minister Tony Blair has found himself besieged by a barrage of attacks by rival parties and seen a downtrend in his Labour party’s ratings with the Iraq war rearing its head again over the May 5 polls, British dailies reported on Wednesday, April 27. 

From potential losing of “swing seats” in the parliament and traditional Labour supporters to accusations of “being prepared to lie” and defections, the 51-year-old premier has to fight hard for a neck-and-neck election.

And despite his best efforts to swing attention to domestic issues like the economy and public services, Blair needs every single vote he can get in his run for a third consecutive term in office.

“Labour no longer has the wind in its sails as it did in 1997. No government that has been in power for eight years does,” The Guardian quoted a private report presented to Alan Milburn, the Labour’s campaign coordinator.

And in an election that heavily counts on turnout, the number of voters certain to vote is still only 56% overall – 3% down in the 2001 elections, according to the report.

A poll for The Financial Times further showed that 80% of Tory voters are now certain to vote, compared with 71% a week ago. Labour's comparable figure is 64%, against 66% last week.

Swing Seats

The report warned that the party risks losing “swing seats” in the May polls with analysts attributing the potential loss to Blair’s “trust problem.”

The overall party national lead is lagging in the House of Common’s marginals   with up to 100 seats showing their candidates at most 2% ahead of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats runners.

Despite the Labour’s traditional safe seats in northeast England, the party, as well as its rivals, is focusing on the marginal seats; namely, districts or constituencies held with a particularly small majority in the parliamentary election as they could really make a difference.

Previous opinion polls showed that Blair is heading toward securing a third term in office with his ruling Labour Party leading over the main opposition parties between five to 10 points ahead.

Defections

The Labour’s limbo was deepened as more former Labour MPs warned they could quit the party en masse after the May 5 elections in a concerted protest against the premier’s leadership of the party.

They would follow in the footsteps of Brian Sedgemore, the Labour MP for 27 years, who announced his defection on Tuesday, April 26, for the Liberal Democrats in protest of the party's policies under Blair.

“I was approached by a colleague who asked me what I intended to do. I said I would remain in the party. The colleague indicated they were likely to leave the party,” The Independent quoted as saying David Hinchliffe, who is standing down as MP for Wakefield in the general elections.  

Sedgemore said his defection was a principled stand against the Iraq war and what he attacked as “deeply illiberal measures” passed by Blair.

“I feel happy and comfortable today, whereas a few weeks ago I felt miserable,” he was quoted as saying by the British daily. 

His defection from the Labour was seen by the rival parties as a “pivotal moment” in the election campaign.

Charles Kennedy, the Liberal Democrat Party leader, said Sedgemore’s desertion was indicative of “a massive shift of grassroots Labour opinion away from the government, not just on Iraq but on other issues as well.”

The defection was not the first and looks like it will not be the last. Back in March 2003, Former British foreign secretary Robin Cook resigned from the government protesting Blair’s decision to go to war without a UN mandate.

“Liar”

“Mr. Blair, this election is about character,” said Howard. (Reuters)

The Conservatives have further stepped up their campaign against Blair, featuring a poster accusing Blair of being “prepared to lie” to win the May polls.

“If he’s prepared to lie to take us to war, he's prepared to lie to win an election,” the poster reads.

Michael Howard, the Tory leader, reserved a message to Blair.

“Mr. Blair, this election is about character,” Howard was quoted by the Daily Telegraph as saying.

“It is about character and the way you do business. You have said one thing before an election and done something quite different afterwards.”

“I am a very direct person,” he said. “I say it as it is. Character is an issue at this election. It is about trust.”

And the Iraq war seems to have paid dividends in the surveys.

The latest daily tracker poll by Populus for The Times and ITV News put the Liberal Democrats up two points, after the party’s leader put Blair’s record on the war at the heart of his campaign.

In March, British Members of Parliament called for a formal inquiry into why Blair and Attorney General Lord Golsmith concealed a full legal opinion before Britain joined the US in its “illegal” war on Iraq.

Muslim Vote

The defection of a veteran Labour MP was seen by Kennedy as a “pivotal moment” in the election campaign.

More and more, the Muslim vote is no longer guaranteed for the traditional Labour, primarily due to the war and anti-terror laws seen by the minority as particularly tailored for them.

Before the war, the Labour controlled all 40 parliamentary seats in districts where Muslims accounted for 10 percent or more of the population, according to the Muslim Council of Britain.

Then, last year it lost Leicester South in a special election to the Liberal Democrats, the only one of the UK's three major political parties to oppose the war.

Muslims account for more than 5 percent of the population in 23 of the 150 seats where Labour holds the slimmest majorities, according to data from the MCB.

A Guardian/ICM poll had showed that the traditional Muslim support for Labour slumped from 75 percent at the last general election to only 38 percent due to the Iraq war.

Now the Labour is trying to win back the Muslim vote, fielding 12 Muslim candidates on its slate.

There are currently two Muslim MPs in Britain, both representing the ruling Labour.

Gearing up for the upcoming election, British Muslims are planning public meetings with political parties running for the May 5 polls to assess where the parties stand on issues affecting the minority before taking a final decision on whom to vote for.