By Misbah Abdulbaqi, IOL Correspondent

KABUL, October 8 (IslamOnline.net) – More than 10 million Afghans are to cast their ballots Saturday, October 9, in the first presidential elections in the country, but questions remain if the poll would be free and fair.

Shaky security also casts heavy doubts on the general atmosphere of the elections that has been postponed twice before.

Incumbent Hamid Karzai, who was installed office in December 2001 by the United States, is widely expected to emerge the decisive winner amid a field of other 17 candidates, analysts say.

However, they fear a possible US interference could mar the country’s test of democracy, as they trickled money and other resources for the close ally to end the coming presidential elections favorably.

US Ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad reportedly urged the other candidates to back out of the race and throw their support to Karzai.

Khalilzad said Washington is satisfied with Karzai although it stopped short of publicly supporting him.

The US diplomat is reportedly holding talks with other candidates to convince them out of the race in return for winning portfolios in the new government.

Mohammed Mohaqeq, a formerly anti-Taliban militia commander, said Khalilzad had mediated talks between him and Karzai to negotiate b back-off deal.

How It Works?

The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) -- established in an effort to integrate all UN activities in Afghanistan -- has decided to hold the Afghan elections Saturday after tow delays.

The original date was scheduled at the Bonn conference in November 2001, which stipulates holding general elections within a two years and six months period of transitional administration of the war-scarred country.

Karzai had insisted on a presidential ruling system in the country rather than a parliamentarian one; in what observers deem another evidence of Washington’s influence.

Washington perhaps found the ruling system best serving its own interests, as the Americans depended on Karzai to pass some decisions related to its occupation of the strategic Asian country despite the lack of popular support.

18 Candidates

The United Nations had approved the candidacy of 18 individuals for the presidential elections, on condition that they each would secure 10,000 supporters and choose two vice-presidential nominees.

Observers say most of the candidates seek fame or money paid for financing the election campaigns. Others had an eye on clinching a deal with Karzai in return for their withdrawal from the candidates’ list.

Voters will choose between the 18 candidates for a five-year term of office. If none of those candidates wins a clear majority, a run-off election in November will determine a final winner.

The main candidates include Yunus Qanuni, Karzai's education minister and best placed to defeat him at the polls.

Qanuni served as a leader of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance and is a member of the country's second largest ethnic group, the Tajiks. He has two powerful backers in Karzai's cabinet; defense minister, Mohammed Fahim, and the former foreign minister, Abdullah Abdullah.

Mohaqeq is another strong candidate. He is from the long-suffering Shiite Muslim Hazara minority of central Afghanistan. He served as planning minister in Karzai's government until March.

But Shiite votes could be divided, after Karzai chose a vice-presidential nominee also from the Hazara.

Abdul Satar Serat is also vying for the presidency. The Uzbek and former aide to Afghanistan's last king, has spent most of the past 30 years in exile. Serat was believed to lead the post-Taliban post before Karzai took over.

Abdul Hafiz Mansoor is another candidate. The traditionalist former head of Afghan state television has links with the Tajik faction in the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance and has clammed Karzai of attempting to install what he called an elected dictatorship.

Massouda Jalal is the only woman candidate on the list. The former UN worker is independent of any faction, which leaves the qualified pediatrician with no power base.

Noticeably, there is no agreement in the factions of the country to rally support for one candidate. The Northern Alliance has more than five candidates, while the supporters of ousted king Mohammed Zahir Shah are widely undecided.

Shah has been pressured by the United States not to submit his name to a tribal council that eventually selected Karzai as transitional president.

Public Participation

The United Nations has recently announced that more than 90 per cent of the eligible voters, estimated at 10,800,000, had registered.

The world organization says the number of registered voters breaks down as 58.7 per cent men and 41.3 per cent women.

However, some suspect the number could be less than the one announced, as some Afghan citizens told this correspondent that most people, especially women, registered three times in one of the constituencies.

Some individuals told the mostly illiterate and poor voters that they could buy their votes.

The UN crew admitted such violations. The number of registered voters pop up from six million in the February-July period to more than 10 million in less than one month and a half later.

The number of those who would turn up for the Saturday day vote could decide the credibility of the UN regarding its figures on the elections.

American Timing

US President George W. Bush was the most keen for the Afghan elections to be held at this time.

Facing a fierce presidential race, Bush needs to tell the American voters that his policy in Afghanistan has capped with success, and that what he used to call a hotbed of Taliban militants is now turning to be a stable democratic region.

US broadcasters beaming to the Afghans is pushing ordinary people to cast ballots, and the presidential candidates were also lured by a huge sum to venture on the list.

Khalilzad, the US diplomat, had sought to remove all hurdles in a remarkably hasty way for elections to be held one month before the American presidential elections, which Bush for sure hope would offset the Iraq fiasco.

All demands by Karzai and the other 17 rival candidates to postpone elections in the still-turbulent country after a series of attacks were turned down, despite the lack of security to ensure safe balloting.

Afghanistan is still far away from realizing security ahead of its first presidential elections in decades, with continued attacks against senior officials and international forces.

The Taliban remnants had targeted Thursday, September 16, a helicopter carrying Karzai with a rocket in the Afghan town of Gardez as he was planning to launch his first election campaign outside the capital Kabul.

Who Wins?

Karzai, a close US ally, is expected to lead the poll results, as the US military has flown him around Afghanistan to campaign rallies in the country's 34 provinces while the rest of candidates had to rely on their own resources.

The Americans had placed all their trust in Karzai, as he is the man of stage in their own eyes, analysts say.

So, it is easy to expect the election would have no indelible marks on the situation in the country.

The anti-government forces would keep their stance as long as the US keeps its 18,000 troops in Afghanistan, up from 11,000 late last year.

The troops, however, have been unable to stop increasing militant attacks, especially in the south, amid reportedly growing anti-American sentiments furious over the US aerial strikes that could target civilians and leave a trail of massive destruction.

The new government would be seen as a US stooge, regardless of whether they were chosen by elections or not unless US soldiers pack up and leave, analysts believe.

Some groups boycotted the vote, and further threatened to block holding them in southern and southwestern areas. Attacks are anticipated on the election day.

In the Afghan refugee camps in Pakistan, where a million Afghans are expected to cast ballots Saturday, unknown groups opposed to the election process have made several threatening phone calls to the local and foreign IOM staff arranging elections.

The threatening pamphlets, also known as so called night letters, have been circulating inside the refugee camps inciting Afghan voters to disregard the election process.

Still, that election process would be hyped as a success regardless of the results or circumstances remains a possible conclusion.