JAKARTA, July 6 (IslamOnline.net & News Agencies) - Former general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono was Tuesday, July 6, leading the field as votes were counted in Indonesia's Presidential election, but analysts said he was not assured victory in a likely second round run-off.

The world's fourth most populous country appears to be heading for more political uncertainty before Yudhoyono is expected to square off on September 20 against either the incumbent, Megawati Sukarnoputri, or another ex-general Wiranto, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP).

With 21 million votes tallied from Monday's vote by the election commission, Yudhoyono had 33 percent compared to 26 percent for Megawati and 23 percent for Wiranto.

Yudhoyono and his vice President Jusuf Kalla took the lead in a provisional vote count in 14 of Indonesia`s 32 provinces as of 11:30 a.m. Tuesday, securing 5,305,417 votes or 33.28 percent of the total votes counted, according to Indonesian news agency Antara.

The Susilo-Kalla ticket was leading in the provinces of Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, Lampung, Bangka Belitung, Jakarta, West Java, East Java, Banten, West Nusa Tenggara, South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi and Southeast Sulawesi, according to Antara, citing the General Elections Commission's (KPU) tabulation center.

The Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle's Megawati -Hasyim Muzadi pair was the front-runner in seven provinces - Riau Islands, Central Java, Yogyakarta, Bali, East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, and Central Kalimantan, with 4,214,212 votes or 26.43 percent.

According to the latest projections, Yudhoyono will end up with 33.9 percent of the total - short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff between the top two candidates.

The projection by the Washington-based National Democratic Institute (NDI), which proved highly accurate in the April legislative election, gave Megawati 24.9 percent and Wiranto 23.8 percent, reported AFP.

Yudhoyono said he was confident of making the second round. "I have to conduct a more effective campaign, communicate better with camps which did not make the second round," he told reporters.

"I understand that politics is about consensus and dealing. We will do our best to compete healthily and will not abandon our principles."

Asked about a possible coalition, he replied: "In politics anything is possible but of course I have to develop my strategy to counter unnecessary tactics by my competitor."

Yudhoyono did not elaborate but he has complained in the past of smear tactics by unspecified rivals - SMS messages circulating in the world's largest Muslim-populated nation which falsely allege he is a Christian.

In the official count and the unofficial projection, national assembly speaker Amien Rais was on 14 percent and vice-president Hamzah Haz had three percent.

Indonesia has more than 153 million registered voters but the election commission has no figure for how many went to the polls to directly elect a President for the first time since independence was granted in 1949.

During decades of autocratic rule under Sukarno and his army-backed successor Suharto, parliament's upper house elected Presidents. The practice continued after Suharto's fall in 1998 and denied Megawati the leadership until 2001.

Share prices were sharply higher in morning trade on relief that the election - a huge logistical exercise in the world's largest archipelago - went off smoothly.

At midday the benchmark index was up up 19.416 points, or 2.61 percent. The rupiah was also firmer at 8,965/8,980 to the dollar.

With the election commission's computerized tally expected to take a week or longer to complete, interest was focused on whether Yudhoyono will battle Megawati or his former army boss Wiranto in the second round.

Hank Valentino, a senior adviser with the International Foundation for Election Systems, said votes still to be tallied from outlying areas would tend to go to Wiranto rather than Megawati.

"For us, second place is too close to call," he told AFP. The NDI also could not say who would take second place, given that its projection based on results from some 1,500 polling stations has a one percent margin of error.

"With a likely runoff, all polling data from before can be thrown out the window. It starts all over," Valentino said.

"SBY (Yudhoyono) may have led in the first round but this is not necessarily an indication he will walk away with the second round. With just two candidates, various supporters begin to solidify their positions."

Gunawan Hidayat, of the Voters' Education Network for the People, agreed that in a second round, the scenario would be different.

"In Indonesia, loyalty to a candidate would only cover around 40 percent of supporters and the tendency to switch camps is high," Hidayat told AFP.