New opinion poll shows Blair would lose his huge overall majority if a general election were held now

LONDON, June 11, (IslamOnline.net & News Agencies) – British Prime Minister Tony Blair suffered a severe setback over his Iraq policy, as results from a day of local polls showed voters turning against his ruling Labor Party, press reports said Friday, June 11.

With 82 of 166 councils up for grabs having reported by early Friday, Labor had lost a net 211 seats, closing in on the overall net loss of 400 or more, which analysts had said would be a serious blow for Blair.

The BBC projected Labour's vote share at just 26 percent, 12 percentage points behind the Conservatives and below Britain's third party, the Liberal Democrats, on 30 percent.

Some metropolitan bastions fell out of Labour control, including the northern city of Trafford which went to the Conservatives, according to Reuters.

British daily the Independent said the first results from the "Super Thursday" elections suggested Labour was heading for its worst performance since Blair became party leader 10 years ago.

If the pattern is repeated when another 73 local authorities count their votes Friday, the results would push Labour into third place and provoke another bout of speculation about Blair's future and demands for him to stand down before the general election, said the British daily.

The Liberal Democrats, also benefited from its anti-war stance and traditional strong showing in local councils.

Senior government figures and analysts were quoted by Reuters as saying that the Iraq invasion and ensuing instability during the U.S.-led occupation had taken its toll, with election returns amounting to a drubbing for Blair in his seventh year in power.

"There is clearly a very strong protest vote," cabinet minister Tessa Jowell told BBC television. "Iraq is certainly a factor but it is only a factor."

One Labour source agreed, telling the Independent: "There is a backlash over Iraq. It is not confined to Muslims and professional workers inside the M25. It is hurting us among working and middle-class people, too."

The Conservatives' showing was dented by their support for invasion of Iraq and a surge by the hitherto marginal UK Independence Party, which advocates withdrawal from the European Union.

Britain has the second largest contingent in Iraq after that of the United States, with Blair having given a staunch support to the invasion of the oil-rich country in March last year on claims of its possession of weapons of mass destruction – none of which have been found since.

The results from Thursday's local council polls - to be followed by London mayor results Friday night and European Parliament results Sunday - will inevitably renew speculation about Blair's leadership.

Analysts cautioned that regional and European elections - often used to kick the government of the day - tend to have little bearing on the next general election.

The Independent said a new opinion poll showed the embattled Premier would lose his huge overall majority if a general election were held now and that Britain would have a hung Parliament.

The YouGov survey of 6,000 people for Sky News found that the Tories (Conservatives) would get 36 per cent of the votes, Labour 32, the Liberal Democrats 18, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) seven and other parties seven.

These figures would wipe out the 165-strong majority Blair won at the previous election, the paper added.

But most analysts still expect him to take Labour to a third general election victory in 2005 despite the damage from Iraq and Blair's alliance with President Bush.

Blair, attending a G8 Summit with Bush and leaders of other eight industrialized countries, remained convinced Labour's support would revive in time for the general election, after Iraq had been turned "into a better place, as I believe it will".

He said that the Tories and Liberal Democrats had not presented any policies that gave him concern during the recent campaign.

Blair, in power since 1997, had been universally predicted to fare badly, but has repeated in recent days that he is in no mood to hand over the reins to a party successor.

Growing public opposition over the Iraq invasion is still there, demonstrated by mass demonstrations in the run-up and after the offensive, as no WMDs have been found in Iraq, raising fears that the U.S.-British strikes were based on false pretexts.

Blair paid less attention to the withering and unprecedented criticism from the most senior former officials in the Foreign Office for toeing the U.S. line in the Middle East and occupied Iraq.

On April 17, over 1,000 protestors converged outside Downing Street demanding Blair to withdraw troops from Iraq and withhold support for American recognition of Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories.

The Legal Action Against War, a British anti-war group, said in March it wanted the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague to consider whether Blair and his government officials should be tried for war crimes over the Iraq occupation.