KUALA LUMPUR, May 7 (IslamOnline.net) - Thailand’s Premier Thaksin Shinawatra is facing the possibility of a coup in the event of a repeat of the last April’s incident when 107 Muslims were brutally killed by Thai military in southern Thailand, sources in South Thailand revealed to IslamOnline.net Friday, May 7.

“Thaksin’s term in office is under threat and his policies, not only in south Thailand but also regarding other issues in the country, is bound to bring back the potentates of coup d’Etats (regime overthrow) that would reduce the nationalists in power to dust,” said Nik Abdullah, a Thai observer living in Pattani to IOL during a phone interview.

“Thailand is a country that since 1932 has had 17 coups, 23 Prime Ministers and 16 constitutions and if overthrowing Thaksin would be a solution to many of the problems in the country, it will happen within no time, wait and see,” said Abdullah.

Thaksin is believed to be close to Thai nationalists who have penetrated his party - the Thai Rack Thai - and who believe in nothing but extreme violence in dealing with separatism, for example.

“However, it will all depend on the mood of the monarch who is at times critical of Thaksin’s policies and on whom the PM reports on events such as the violence in (the) Muslim south, the anti-Drug war in Thailand and even on government policies in general,” added Abdullah.

The Muslim observer told IOL that Thailand’s political system is too corrupt to be trusted and the Thai Premier is surely working for some interests which are either “his own or his friends in the business sector. His attempts to bring development in the South are also viewed as self interest”.

“Thus there is a huge possibility that some members of the Thaksin cabinet, who is not happy with his handling of the situation in the south in particular will raise against him and will either plot to bring him down with the help of some military pundits or simply withdraw their support to the PM, a move that could cause Thaksin’s downfall,” he said.

Another political observer, Abduraeman bin Soelaeman, agreed with Abdullah’s reading of the situation.

Soelaeman, who works for a Muslim organization in southern Thailand, said to IOL that he believes some of Thaksin party members and cabinet ministers are already working in that direction.

“Many ministers and party members (the Thai Rack Thai), the ruling party in Thailand, have voiced their opposition to the mass murder of the Muslims April 28.

“They knew that these poor guys had no chance against the Thai military might and they also knew that Thaksin orders would have been critical in the crushing of the ‘show of separatism’ on that fatal day,” said Abdureaman to IOL.

“Most definitely these Ministers are now uncomfortable in their chairs and when the Cabinet meets the next time, the atmosphere will surely be electric charged,” he added.

He said that dissent in the Thai government is more than evident and that even some military elements refused to take actions against the group of young Muslims hiding in the Kru Se Mosque in Pattani.

“Yet they were ordered by the political officials to shoot to kill. That is how the carnage happened,” he claimed.

He told IOL that there is clear information that the military officers present at the Kru Se mosque compound were asked to eliminate all those in the mosque.

“Many of them had gun wound on he forehead. What you call that? Execution, that is what it is and Thaksin has a hand in it, he has to pay for that and if he is overthrown by the powers in Thailand, it will be good to the nation,” said Abdureaman.

The name of General Chavalit, the Thai first Deputy Premier in the cabinet of Thaksin came out almost every time IOL asked the observers who would be a potential leader of such a plot against Thaksin.

“Chavalit will surely push the army to pressure Thaksin and the King and this could result in Thaksin losing power eventually before the next polls,” said Abdullah.

Thailand is a democratically-ruled constitutional monarchy with a Prime Minister who has all the executive powers in his hands.

The country, however, has a history of frequent military coups.

Military influence over political activities in Thailand is also historical as most of the coup attempts proved in the past.

“It must be noted that most of the coup attempts in the past were successful. Thirteen out of the 19 last attempts to overthrow a government in Thailand have succeeded,” said Abdullah.

The last coup attempt in Thailand took place in 1992 when dozens died trying to overthrow a military regime in Bangkok.

The plot led by pro democracy advocates ended when the Thai king Bhumibol Adulyadej summoned the then Prime Minister and the leader of the dissident group for a telecast meeting that ended in the Premier’s resignation in disgrace.

Muslims in the south of Thailand are unhappy with the handling of the situation in the provinces where they are majority. The country has 6 million Muslims, most of them living in poverty, having little education and little hope of a better life under the government of Thaksin.