Golkar leader Tandjung walks past a graphic showing the results of the votes that have been counted so far in the parliamentary election

By Kazi Mahmood, IOL Southeast Asia correspondent

JAKARTA , April 8 (IslamOnline.net) - The performance of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDI-P) in the parliamentary polls so far casts doubts on President Megawati Sukarnoputri’s chances of being re-elected in the July first direct presidential elections.

"The poor showing of the PDI-P, compared to its great victory in 1999, has diminished the chances of the president to be re-elected in the July presidential polls," Muhammad Isa, a political writer in Indonesia, told IslamOnline.net on Thursday, April 8.

With 36.7 million votes tallied out of a possible electorate of 147 million, the PDI-P won only 20.7 percent compared to 20 percent for Golkar, one of the oldest political formations in Indonesia and the party of former Presidents General Suharto and B J Habibie.

In the 1999 elections, the PDIP won 34 percent of the votes in the first free polls in the country, allowing Megawati to be named vice president.

She eventually assumed the presidency after the removal of Abdurrahman Wahid in 2001.

The debate on Megawati's chances to retain her job as first woman president is almost on everybody’s lips.

From party workers to tea vendors on the sidewalk, every body is talking about the defeat of the PDIP and the eventual downfall of Megawati.

"It’s a major issue now in Indonesia as the first woman president in the history of the nation appears at the end of the road," said Isa.

"The best hope for Ibu Mega, as she is fondly called by the public, has vanished with the poor poll performance of the PDIP, and this is probably the end of her presidential career," he said.

Though the confirmation of Megawati’s true strength will only be tested on the polling day, slated for July 31, Isa argues it is almost certain she would relinquish in the presidential battle.

He suggested Golkar’s Akbar Tanjung and Amien Rais, the leader of the National Mandate Party (PAN) as favorite presidential candidates.

The sole English based newspaper in the capital, the Jakarta Post on Thursday ran a story that showed the mood in the country.

"I think she's finished," Jeffery Winters, a political science professor from Northwestern University in the U.S. , told the paper.

Slim Chances

At the PDI-P’s main office in Jakarta , a party member told IOL the president was too busy to give interviews and that the situation after the poll results showed the PDI-P at a low certainly made it difficult for the lady president.

"Yet we do not lose hope, we may still make a strong push after a coalition with other democratic parties. We are also ready to join forces with so called Islam-based parties too," said Pak Rudi.

The PDI-P said that initially the president had indicated, last year, that she would not be a candidate but it would all depend on the party.

The party is currently negotiating with several smaller parties including the Democrat Party (DP) of Susilo Bambang Yudhiono, a former cabinet minister of Megawati’s government who created his own political formation after infighting with the president.

However, none of the country's political parties seem willing to deal with the PDIP at this point.

The Development Party (PKB) of Abdurrahman Wahid will certainly not join Megawati to help her win the presidential polls, especially that Megawati’s PDI-P helped oust Wahid from power in 2001.

The same applies for the Golkar party whose leader Tandjung had a tough time under Megawati when he was charged in court on bribery before he was acquitted.

Tandjung too has presidential ambitions and has announced that his party and the PD have already made a coalition ahead of the presidential elections.

"By joining forces with the PD, the Golkar can secure around 30 percent of the votes, but that would not be enough to win the presidential polls," a Golkar spokesperson told IOL.

The PDI-P can only rely on the support of Islam-based parties but it is unlikely that the PAN would follow the other parties that are regrouped in the Muslim Axis to support Megawati.

For his part, the PAN leader Rais has already made it clear it does not want Megawati as president.

"Rais is currently weighing the possibilities of a united Islamic front that would give him some 20 percent of votes, enough to rally the support of the PKB, which has 13 percent of electoral votes so far," said Isa.

The writer said it is most likely that the PDI-P would have to drop Megawati and support Rais or Tandjung.

"This will all depend on the party though it is clear that Candidates like Rais and Tandjung are pulling the strings of the PDI-P to drop Megawati and choose another candidate that could act as vice-president," he added.

The current parliamentary polls have given clear mandate to the parties that won more than 5 percent of votes to negotiate a better deal with the future presidential candidates, said Isa.

"Such deals include cabinet posts or future gubernorial and chief minister’s posts across Indonesia , that is all politics is about," he added.