Control the export route for the oil, say analysts, and you control the oil itself. Some observers compare it to the so-called "Great Game" of the 19th century, when Britain, then the world's superpower, was jostling with Russia for control of routes to India.

Moscow has powerful levers of influence in Georgia. It has two army bases in the south and west of the country, a hangover from the Soviet era that the Kremlin is in no hurry to give up.

Russia provides most of Georgia's energy needs through a gas pipeline, and it is in de facto control of two chunks of the country, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, where Moscow-backed separatists have seceded from Tbilisi.

Washington, too, has its influence. It is Georgia's biggest bilateral aid donor, propping up a government that is nearly bankrupt. It provides military aid. U.S. Marine Corps instructors are working with the Georgian army -- a move that angered hawks in Moscow -- and Washington has given Tbilisi six Huey helicopters. Turkey contributed another two.

For many years, the U.S. edged out Russia as Georgia's chief foreign influence. Shevardnadze -- a former reforming Soviet foreign minister with hero status in the West -- has squabbled with the Kremlin and cozied up to Washington.

But in the past year that has changed as Shevardnadze's position weakened at home. The president has drifted closer to Moscow and entered into an alliance with Aslan Abashidze, the immensely powerful leader of Georgia's Adjara region who is desperate to see Georgia firmly in Russia's orbit.

According to Baran, the interests of Moscow and Washington in Georgia's current crisis are not totally at odds.

"They both want to establish stability but I think the way Russia is going about it is quite different from the way the U.S. goes about it," she said.

The U.S. State Department, she said, was anxious for Shevardnadze to make concessions to the opposition to ease the crisis.

That would likely set up a situation where the Western-oriented opposition -- led by U.S.-educated lawyer Mikhail Saakashvili -- would win power in presidential elections scheduled for 2005.

Meanwhile Ivanov is expected to offer Russia's support to the embattled Shevardnadze, said Baran, and back tough measures to defeat the opposition.

Ivanov met with opposition leaders shortly after he arrived in Tbilisi. "I think Russia will play a constructive role," opposition leader Mikhail Saakashvili said early Sunday after more than an hour of talks with Ivanov.

If the Kremlin's strategy works and Shevardnadze weathers the crisis, then, analysts predict, Abashidze will move to the center of Georgian decision-making and the country's future would be closely tied in with Russia.

Meanwhile, Georgia's opposition leader called for supporters to turn out for a second day of massive protests Sunday.

"I announce a mobilization of the people," Mikhail Saakashvili said in televised comments. "We must gather to defend what we have achieved and voice our protest."

Saakashvili called on opposition supporters to pour onto the square in front of parliament in Tbilisi at 1000 GMT on Sunday, which is a holiday in the Caucasus country.

On Saturday, more than 30,000 protestors, many of whom had come to the capital from the provinces, gathered in Tbilisi for an opposition rally, demanding that President Eduard Shevardnadze resign over a disputed parliamentary election.

The rally led to a storming of parliament by angry demonstrators, who forced Shevardnadze to flee the building. The 75-year-old Georgian chief then declared a state of emergency as the opposition declared that one of its leaders would act as head of state until new elections.

During the night, several thousand people kept vigil outside parliament in an atmosphere that was more carnival than revolutionary.

People laughed, shouted and kept warm by bonfires. One man on crutches tossed them aside and broke into a jig and a man in a police jacket performed a rendition of a traditional Georgian dance.

Saturday's protests were the largest of the nearly daily demonstrations that the opposition had organized since the November 2 vote.