Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites see eye to eye on the establishment of a sovereign Iraq and an end to the American occupation

By Hadi Yahmid, IOL Correspondent

PARIS, Aug 1 (IslamOnline.net) – The scenario for an Iranian-styled Islamic revolution stands no repeat in neighboring Iraq, a prominent French expert said, noting that divided Iraqi Shiites lack a charismatic leader to steer a revolution.

"I do not believe the situation in Iraq is similar to the 1978 Iran when the revolution broke out under the leadership of Ayatollah Khomenei," said Oliver Roy, a research director in humanities and social sciences in the National Centre of Scientific Research.

In an interview with IslamOnline.net, Roy excluded the Iranian revolution could be exported to war-ton power-vacuumed Iraq, citing two major reasons.

The Iranian model is already suffering a crisis, said the expert, adding that many Iraqi Shiite leaders who lived in exile in Iran are aware of this crisis and would not likely favor a rerun of the Iranian experience.

"Second, there are no such charismatic religious figures in Iraq able to initiate a revolution," said Roy – who has served as a consultant for the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs since the 1984.

He attributed the lack of charismatic figures to divisions and lack of coordination among Shiite leaders, whether moderates such as Ayatollah Al-Sistani or "radicals" like Muqtada Al-Sadr.

'Inexperienced'

Despite his strong-worded speeches against the U.S. occupation and popularity among the country's poor and youth, Muqtada Al-Sadr does not have the experience Khomeini had, said the French expert.

Muqtada Al-Sadr, in his 30s, "does not enjoy a top hierarchy in the highest Shiite body of hawza" and gains his status largely by virtue of his renowned family, he contended.

Roy also underlined that Muqtada Al-Sadr "distances himself from the Iranian regime and has repeatedly said Shiite scholars in the Iraqi holy cities of An-Najaf and Karbala have priority over others," – in reference to Iranians.

"Despite his hardline stances he remains an Iraqi and an Arab with no Iranian allegiance".

The French expert argued that many of the long-repressed Shiites in Iraq "favor an understanding of Islam confined to social life rather than politicking".

He noted that "although an Iran-style Islamic regime is not likely, there is a desire for applying some Islamic laws such as prohibition of alcoholics and other social wrongdoings."

Roy added that secular regimes in the Islamic world have been imposed by dictatorships such as the cases in Turkey, Tunisia and Algeria.

The U.S. had threatened intolerance to an Islamic regime in Iraq after the ouster of Saddam Hussein.

'Genuine Difference'

The French analyst cited some differences between Shiites in Iraq and in Iran, recalling the 1980-1988 war between the two countries in which "Iraq's Shiites did not join their counterparts in the Islamic Republic".

Despite intertwined ties between Shiite scholars in both countries and the fact that prominent Shiite families are of Arab-Iranian descent, the Iranian revolution "produced a new reality that helped marginalize Iraqi scholars.

"Most Iranian Shiite leaders allowed the Iranian nationalist prospective to gain momentum," Roy said, giving the example of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Khamaenei.

The demographic realities also play a role in such a distinction, as Iraq's Shiites could be subdivided.

"There are Shiites in such large cities as An-Najaf and Karbala, and others in the south who are more Arabized and less religious than those of the north," argued the French expert.

Resistance Positions 

Roy said that further undermining revolutionary potentials in the war-scarred country is a perceived absence of an armed Shiite resistance to the U.S.-British occupation.

"On the contrary, Shiites have gained from this foreign military intervention in a country whose leadership had been long dominated by Sunnis," he added.

Deeming the ouster of Saddam a positive development, the Shiites believe "the Americans are in need of them to restore security – something that could serve their tendency for political engagement".

The French expert described as "tactical" different approaches by Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites to occupation resistance, with "some of the power-losing Sunnis engaging the U.S. forces in an armed conflict and Shiites thinking the door is now open to assume power."

Roy conceded, however, that Sunnis and Shiites see eye to eye on the establishment of a sovereign Iraq and an end to the American occupation.