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"I don't think anyone would expect that an initial meeting like this where people said what they had to say would deescalate or defuse the tension," Boucher
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WASHINGTON,
April 27 (IslamOnline.net & News Agencies) – After winding up
talks in Beijing with Chinese and North Korean negotiators, the U.S.
is now seen as a poker player sizing up an opponent's hand. It should
now separate bluff from reality as it weighs its next move against
reluctant North Korea.
Talks
in Beijing between U.S., Chinese and North Korean negotiators last
week did little to lower temperatures in the six-month-old nuclear
crisis -- to no one's surprise, Agence France-Presse (AFP) said.
"I
don't think anyone would expect that an initial meeting like this
where people said what they had to say would deescalate or defuse the
tension," said State Department spokesman Richard Boucher.
But
the talks, which featured tough talking on both sides, leave President
George W. Bush at a policy crossroads.
He
can either seek further and broadened diplomatic contact with
Pyongyang or conclude it will never cede its nuclear programs and try
to isolate and “punish” the Stalinist state, possibly through
United Nations sanctions.
Complicating
the choice is the fact that Washington is unsure whether Pyongyang's
grand claims for its nuclear program are grounded in fact or are
merely a negotiating tactic.
Few
were surprised by North Korea's confirmation in Beijing that it has
nuclear weapons.
But
experts here are analyzing North Korean delegate Li Gun's reported
claims to U.S. envoy James Kelly that his country may demonstrate its
nuclear capacity, and his apparent remarks that Pyongyang was
reprocessing 8,000 fuel spent rods which could produce more nuclear
weapons.
The
Beijing talks produced nothing that will convince the Bush
administration to ditch its firm stance on the crisis.
"We're
not horse trading for an end to nuclear weapons programs, we made that
clear from the start," said one senior U.S. official on condition
of anonymity.
But
those who think engagement should be given a chance believe that the
Bush administration should now flesh out for Pyongyang the idea of a
"bold approach" it was prepared to offer, before it
discovered a highly enriched uranium (HEU) nuclear weapons program in
North Korea last year.
"It
seems to me there still is room for having a conversation which goes
beyond the United States saying 'you must return to the status-quo
ante' before we will talk to you further about anything," said
Alan Romberg, a former senior State Department official now at the
Henry L. Stimson center.
"Lay
it out in some more detail than the U.S. has been willing to do but to
make it clear that the first step in the process before the U.S. does
anything, and without compensation, the North does in fact dismantle
whatever (HEU) program it has."
To
do that, the administration would have to climb down from its
insistence that it will not submit to what Bush again referred to on
Thursday as "blackmail."
That
is "very unlikely," said Derek Mitchell of the Center for
Strategic and International Studies, as it would set a bad post-Iraq
war precedent for other aspiring nuclear powers.
It
would say "if you don't have nuclear weapons you get attacked and
regime change. If you do get nuclear weapons then we will run scared
to you and make a deal."
An
alternative approach, favored by so-called hawks in the U.S.
administration, would be to punish, and isolate Pyongyang, hoping for
the collapse of Kim Jong-Il's regime.
For
them "the best way to proceed now is to have international
condemnation, sanctions, quarantine and isolation to make sure they
are squeezed economically and prevent them proliferating what they
might develop," said Mitchell.
But
the weak link in that strategy -- essentially a bid to force regime
change in Pyongyang -- is that it would require the cooperation of
China.
Beijing
has no interest in seeing a collapse of North Korea, fearing a tidal
wave of refugees and the prospect of a U.S.-allied Korea dominated by
Seoul at its borders.
Therefore,
many analysts believe China will be increasingly active on the
diplomatic front, trying to bind Washington into a long-term dialogue.
"Fair
And Equal Footing"
Meanwhile,
North Korea on Sunday called for a fair and equal footing in talks
with the United States over its nuclear program, insisting the
Stalinist country could do "everything" to defend itself.
The
North's ruling Workers Party newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, blasted
Washington for insisting that there would be "no security of the
system nor provision of rewards" even if Pyongyang gave up its
nuclear program.
Rodong
said North Korea "will be left with no option but to do
everything to defend itself unless the U.S. legally guarantees no use
of arms including nukes."
"If
this poses a threat to the U.S., the latter should take a
corresponding measure for a solution to it," it said.
Washington
should "sincerely approach the settlement of the issue on a fair
and equal footing," Rodong said, adding Pyongyang "does not
intend to wrest a concession" from Washington.
The
daily warned the nuclear crisis would not be resolved easily if the
United States insisted "on its viewpoint that it never makes a
concession because it is a big power."
"The
U.S. statement that there will be no provision of rewards even after
the settlement of the 'nuclear issue' is, in essence, little short of
opposing the conclusion of a non-aggression treaty between the two
countries," it said.
A
North Korean foreign ministry spokesman said Friday that Washington
avoided essential issues in response to a "bold" proposal
from Pyongyang to resolve the crisis in talks in Beijing.