WASHINGTON,
November 3 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) - Days from crucial
mid-term elections that will determine the political makeup of Congress,
voters' perceptions of Democrats and Republicans have not changed much
since the campaign began.
"In
spite of heavy campaigning in many parts of the country, voters'
perceptions of the political parties have changed little over the past
few months according to the most recent polls," Agence
France-Presse (AFP) quoted Caroll Doherty of the Pew Research Center as
saying Sunday, November 3.
"More
voters express confidence in the Republicans' ability to deal with the
threat of terrorism here in the U.S. (by a 44 to 27 percent margin),
while Democrats have a significant advantage when it comes to making the
social security system financially sound (42 percent vs. 31 percent).
Doherty
said neither party appeared to enjoy a clear-cut advantage "in
being seen as better able to handle the economy."
"This
is virtually unchanged from surveys conducted earlier this month and in
early September."
For
Stephen Hess of the Brooking Institutions, "The country remains
divided 50-50 on the economy and national security, and that won't
change in this election."
"The
election is probably going to continue (congressional) gridlock in
Washington," said Hess.
"Sometimes
... we can see people starting to make their mind very late, but I have
not seen that this time. The country will remain divided, no question
about that."
Whether
the Republicans get the extra seat they need to control the Senate or
the Democrats pick up the six they need in the House of Representatives,
"Congress is still going to come out of this election with no clear
mandate," said Hess.
He
said the presidential election two years away could change things, but
added that, regardless of the outcome in Tuesday's vote, "whether
Congress is controlled by Republicans or Democrats ... it's so close
that neither party can do much without the cooperation of the
other."
Charles
Jones, political science professor at the University of Wisconsin,
figured a priority issue in this campaign, "the one that worries
people is ... personal security."
"But
it's not an issue that you can vote against, it's an issue, but with no
direction. The two majorities neutralize themselves."
In
an election with no clear-cut direction, Jones figured, vanity is bound
to fill the vacuum.
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Texas
Republican candidate Ron Kirk (second from left)
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President
George W. Bush is campaigning hard and it matters, said Jones,
"particularly in an election with issues but no direction, because
in a low turnout this can make a difference."
Control
of the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance in Tuesday's crucial elections
after the deaths of two Democratic senators in as many years threaten
the opposition's tenuous majority.
In
the central state of Missouri, Senator Jean Carnahan is defending
against Republican challenger Jim Talent.
Carnahan
stepped in after her husband, Mel Carnahan, died in a plane crash three
weeks before the November 2000 senatorial elections.
Election
law prevented the name of the late Carnahan from being removed from the
ballot at that late date, and voters elected him posthumously, knowing
they were effectively voting for his widow, Jean, who had been
hand-picked by the state Democratic Party to replace him.
As
the latest polls showed Talent edging ahead of Carnahan in Missouri, the
race is still too close to call.
Even
if Talent wins the election, the results must be certified by Missouri
Governor Bob Holden, a Democrat, and not legally obliged to certify the
results before the end of December.
Two
years later -- on October 25 -- and a few states away, a plane crash
also took the life of Senator Paul Wellstone.
The
Democrat was in a neck-and-neck battle for his seat with Republican
challenger Norm Coleman.
To
replace Wellstone, his party turned to former vice president and
three-term senator from the state Walter Mondale, in an attempt to
preserve their one-seat majority in the 100-seat Senate.
The
party cannot afford to lose even one vote, since in the event of a 50-50
tie the Senate president, Republican Vice President Dick Cheney, would
cast the tie-breaking vote.
While
the Senate's power balance for the next two years is the ultimate
political prize, both parties worry about the immediate implications of
the upcoming elections on the final month of the congressional session
which ends in December.
At
stake is how a whole shelf of bills are voted on, including an already
delayed federal budget for fiscal 2003.
The
Republicans must therefore contemplate finishing out the term with a
Democrat-controlled Senate, according to Larry Sabato, a political
analyst at the University of Virginia.
All
bills on the congressional shelf, including the budget, would be decided
upon by a Congress where the opposition is in control in the Senate,
Sabato said.
A
delay may also come from Minnesota where Mondale, marginally leading in
the polls, is tipped to win.
Minnesota
Governor Jesse Venture, an independent and one-time professional
wrestler, under Minnesota law is due to announce the winner sometime
between November 15 and 22, to finish out Wellstone's term.
If
Coleman wins, the Republicans stand a chance of taking the Senate from
the Democrats as early as mid-November.
It
has been more than 30 years since a Democrat won an open U.S. Senate
seat in Texas -- and President Bush will try to keep it that way when he
comes home Monday for one last political rally.
Even
though polls give the advantage to Bush's hand-picked Republican
candidate, John Cornyn, a defeat for the party would be disastrous:
besides dashing Republican hopes to retake a narrowly divided Senate, it
would be a major humiliation setback on Bush's home turf.
"The
whole nation is watching," said Senator Fred Thompson, a Tennessee
Republican and movie actor who campaigned in Texas last week for Cornyn.
"It's
going to be looked at as how much support George W. Bush has.
"The
Democrats would like to embarrass him in his home state, and they're
putting a lot of effort into the race."
Democratic
candidate Ron Kirk, the charismatic former mayor of Dallas, has made the
race competitive, and national Democrats have poured some five million
dollars into his campaign in the final weeks.
Surveys
have jumped around considerably, with one poll last week by KXAS-TV
showing Kirk and Cornyn in a dead heat and the Scripps Howard Texas Poll
giving Cornyn a 10-point lead.
Multimillionaire
businessman Tony Sanchez, the Democrat running for Bush's old job as
Texas governor, is pumping millions of his own money into the election.
While
polls have shown Sanchez is likely to lose to current Republican
Governor Rick Perry running for re-election, Democrats believe he could
drive up the number of minority voters going to the polls and help other
Democratic candidates, including Kirk.
Though
the strong tend in Texas over recent years has been Republican, the
Democrats racially diverse "dream team" could tap into the
state's growing black, Hispanic and Asian population and reverse years
of GOP dominance.
Republicans
now control every single statewide office in Texas.
Already,
almost twice as many people have chosen to take advantage of the early
voting system compared to the early vote four years ago, with heavy
voting in predominately Hispanic -- and heavily Democratic -- precincts
in south Texas.
"We're
going to have a turnout in Texas that is unprecedented in our
history," former Texas Governor Ann Richards, a Democrat Bush
defeated in 1994, told a recent student rally in Austin.
"And
one of the reasons is that we finally have a ticket that actually looks
like the people of Texas -- all of the people of Texas."
If
Kirk pulls off an upset victory, even Republicans admit Bush would have
a hard time explaining it away.
Not
since 1970 -- when Bush's father lost to Democrat Lloyd Bentsen -- have
the Democrats won an open U.S. Senate seat here.
The
latest vacancy opened up when Republican Senator Phil Gramm announced he
was retiring.
Kirk
ironically would be filling the Senate seat once held by another Texas
president -- Lyndon Baines Johnson -- and he would be the first black
elected to the U.S. Senate from the south, propelling him to instant
national stardom.
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Bush
fights for Republican senate hopeful in the heart of Texas
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Bush,
who is crisscrossing the nation this weekend drumming up support for
Republicans in tight races, is leaving nothing to chance.
For
the third and final time, he'll appear in Texas with Cornyn late Monday,
November 4.
Early
Tuesday, November 5, Bush will cast his ballot at a polling station
outside his ranch in tiny Crawford, north of Austin.
Kirk
has portrayed himself as a moderate, pro-business candidate who brought
the two parties together during a period of racial harmony in
strife-torn Dallas, the city where former President John Kennedy was
assassinated.
Cornyn,
meanwhile, portrays Kirk as a partisan who will wreck the favorite Texas
son's agenda in Congress.
Kirk,
who warns Cornyn will be nothing but "lapdog" for Bush, said
he'll show the same independent streak Texans like Johnson once showed
in the Senate.
"You've
got to wonder who is going to speak for (Cornyn) if he's in
Washington," Kirk said.
"You
don't have to wonder whose going to speak for me."
Out
of 202 million Americans of voting age (older than 18), 129.5 million
are registered to vote in Tuesday's mid-term congressional elections,
according to statistics compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau in the year
2000.
The
U.S. population, according to latest figures, stands at 287.5 million,
or about 4.6 percent of the world's population.
Out
of the 129.5 million registered to vote, 103.5 million (80 percent) are
white, 15.5 million (11.9 percent) are black, 7.5 million (5.7 percent)
are Hispanic and 2.5 million (1.9 percent) are Asian, the bureau said.
The
age break-down of registered voters shows 12.1 million (9.3 percent) are
18-24 years, 48.8 million (37.7 percent) are 25 to 44, 46.7 million (36
percent) are 45 to 64, 13.6 million (10.5 percent) are 65 to 74 and 11.4
million (8.8 percent) are 75 or older