By Asif Farooqi, IOL South Asia Correspondent

ISLAMABAD, October 18 (IslamOnline) - Hectic political contacts and intra-party dialogue spreading over a week, have helped uncover post-election scenarios leading towards the government formation in Pakistan as a result of October 10 general elections.

The pro-government Pakistan Muslim League (Q) has emerged as the leading candidate for the office of Prime Minister followed by the alliance of religious parties, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal Pakistan (MMAP) which is looking to get its men heading both the houses of the Parliament.

Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarian (PPPP) and another smaller pro-government alliance, National Alliance (NA) seemed to be out of the race for the premiership of the country.

At the provincial level, MMAP is all set to constitute government of its own in the province bordering Afghanistan, that is NWFP and in Balochistan it is negotiating a deal with PML (Q) which in turn, is ready to take over Punjab province and is also helping pro-government NA to get a majority in Sindh.

Sensing the victory for the pro-Musharraf League in the numbers game, independent contestants in the elections have started joining this party, gradually increasing its strength. In all there are 29 members-elect of the National Assembly who have returned without a party ticket. Ten of these, the MMAP has claimed would join this religious group. The main bulk of the rest is to go to the League camp, helping it play better in the number game.

So far, Q League, which is leading in numerically with 77 of its original seats plus 12 independents who are likely to join in, is the closest party to 137 number required to form a government. MMAP may reach 55 with the induction of 10 independent MNAs into its ranks whereas PPPP stands at 63.

The quickest move towards the government formation had come originally from the government circles. President General Pervez Musharraf, when he made telephone calls to leaders of almost every winning political party soon after their electoral victory, expressed his wish for a national government.

Sources, however, say the President “only had wished” and made it clear that his government was not ready to facilitate the parties to reach a consensus on the government formation and that the parties would have to agree between themselves to form a government consisting of all political elements.

This move apparently has been defused following opposition from two major parties having bigger number of seats in the parliament. PML (Q) and MMAP have refused to accept the idea of a national government.

“National government is rubbish. The party which won only 14 seats can not be given the weight equaling to the party winning 77 seats” Azim Chauhdary, spokesman for the League told Islamonline.

MMAP has also expressed similar reservations towards the national government theory. “National government is undemocratic. You can have national government when there are no elections. When people have elected a certain groups to form government, others who have been rejected cannot be a part of it,” said Maulana Fazl Ur Rehman of the MMAP, who is also a candidate for the highest government office.

The National government, however, is still popular among two political entities, owing to their leader’s peculiar desires. PPPP favors the National Government so that the idea of national reconciliation can be drummed up because this is the only way to bring the exiled party chief Benazir Bhutto back to the country. NA, on the other hand, wants its leader, former President Farooq Leghari, to be a consensus candidate under the banner of National Government.

Now that the MMAP and PML (Q) have put on gears in the race for achieving the premiership of the country, the National Government theory seems thrown out of the window. MMAP has come out with Maulana Fazl as its candidate for the highest government post and League is likely to nominate veteran politician, Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali as its candidate for the same office. This is the point where a lot of give and take has to take place before anything is formalized, according to some political analysts.

Sources say though the MMAP has come out with its candidate for the office of the Prime Minister, they really are not interested in getting him through to that post. MMAP is looking to get to the posts of Speaker of the Lower House (National Assembly) and Chairman of the Upper House (Senate).

League apparently is happy to give away whatever it has in its power in exchange for the office of Prime Minister. But according to sources, powers in Pakistan have strong reservations towards the MMAP holding the chairmanship of the Senate, the second highest constitutional office after the President.

Under the constitution, not only the Senate Chairman acts as a President when the incumbent President is away from the country, but in the incident of death or resignation of the President, the Senate Chairman automatically becomes the President for the rest of his predecessor’s tenure.

What bothers the establishment the most is the proposed candidate for this office from the MMAP. Though the Senate is yet to come into being, MMAP is already putting Maulana Shah Ahmed Noorani as Chairman Senate, unofficially. Given the fact that MMAP is likely to return to the Senate with heavy mandate, on the basis of its performance in last week’s general elections, it would need a small support from another group to get its Maulana to the top of the Upper House.

MMAP is happy to lend a hand to the League to form a government if it is assured of the post of the Senate Chairman, something which does not totally fall under the prerogative of the government-sponsored League.

After gathering in the federal capital for almost a week to exchange views on all these issues, central leaders of all major parties are now in the provincial capitals to help their provincial leadership overcome the number game there.