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U.S. War on Iraq to Start December 7: Russian Sources

Any military solution will have negative consequences, says Russia

RIYADH, October 3 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) – Well-informed Russian political and diplomatic sources said the U.S. war against Iraq will be unleashed by the end of the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan and the beginning of Eid el-Fetr (the Feast).

The offensive could begin by December 7 with intensive shelling of the Iraqi command centers infra-structure.

The Thursday, October 3rd edition of the Saudi newspaper, Al-Watan, quoted the Russian sources as saying that the U.S. Congress had initially earmarked 9-13 billion U.S. dollars for the main scenario of the strike: the deployment of 400,000 U.S. troops, 2,500 aircraft and 60 warships in the Arab Gulf area.

The sources put at 4 billion U.S. dollars the average monthly cost of the American forces' presence in Iraq.

The U.S. Congress Appropriation Committee is currently mulling two scenarios of the envisaged military strike against Iraq, the Russian sources said.

The first would cost 13 billion U.S. dollars and addresses the possibility of sending 370,000 U.S. soldiers, 1500 aircraft, 800 helicopters, 800 tanks and 60 warships to the Arab Gulf.

The second scenario, which would cost 9 billion U.S. dollars, 250,000 soldiers, is designed to dispatch 2500 aircraft, 500 helicopters, 300 tanks and 60 warships.

Russia said Thursday it would not back a new U.N. resolution on Iraq that threatened Baghdad with the automatic use of force should it obstruct weapons inspections.

"In our opinion, it is not constructive to present Iraq with an ultimatum without first having an objective picture [of Baghdad's alleged programs of weapons of mass destruction]," Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Saltanov told a conference on Iraq held in Moscow, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported.

"The document presented to us by the Britons and Americans has only strengthened our assurance that our stand in favor of a quick re-launch of inspections and monitoring in Iraq, and the general settlement without the automatic use of force, is correct."

Saltanov said Russia, which has veto power as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, was instead preparing its own U.N. resolution that would see weapons inspectors return to Iraq and the international community lift its sanctions against Baghdad.

"This is a co-called package deal," said Saltanov.

"Any military solution will have negative consequences for Russia's interests. We think we have to continue doing all we can to search for a political solution. A military solution, especially one that comes without a U.N. resolution, will not resolve the Iraqi problem," Saltanov added.

However, he did acknowledge the need for a tough inspections regime.
"We have positive movement towards inspections, but it is also important that these inspections are effective. After all, their goal is to ease international concerns," he said.

Moscow had inched back Wednesday, October 2, from total opposition to a new U.N. resolution on Iraq, saying for the first time that it would consider a new text laying out international demands to Baghdad.

A Soviet-era ally of Baghdad, Moscow has made repeated efforts to ensure the return of inspectors, and has hailed Iraq's decision last month to provide unfettered access to a U.N. team.

But the United States and Britain, which insist on accusing Iraq of developing alleged nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, are pressing for a strong resolution that would authorize the use of force in the event of Iraqi obstructionism.

The new U.S.-British resolution would give Baghdad seven days to declare all its weapons of mass destruction programs or face military action, and another 23 days to cooperate fully with U.N. inspection teams.

Both Washington and London had sent top diplomats to Moscow over the weekend to convince Russia to support their stance.

But those talks have had only mixed results, with Saltanov's comments suggesting that Russia was not convinced by arguments presented by the U.S. and British negotiators.

Russia's view appears to now be closely in line with that of France, which also has veto power in the U.N. Security Council, and whose President Jacques Chirac late Wednesday said he opposed the ultimatum from U.S. President George W. Bush.

"We are totally hostile to a resolution now which is based on making military intervention automatic," Chirac said during a meeting with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.

"The French and German approach is the same," Chirac said.

France favors two resolutions on Iraq – one on the return of U.N. arms inspectors to the country, and a second if Baghdad fails to comply.

U.N. chief inspector Hans Blix on Tuesday, October 1, announced a deal with Baghdad – struck in Vienna – on the return of inspectors based on previous U.N. resolutions.

That deal was rejected by Washington, which has sought to avoid a unilateral strike against Baghdad by agreeing a deal that forces Iraq to open up all possible sites to inspectors within a specific time, or else be attacked.