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Qadir Assassination Major Blow to Karzai Strategy: Analysts

Qadir was a warlord who had been convinced by Karzai to cooperate with the central government: Rashid

KABUL, July 6 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) - The assassination of Vice-President Haji Abdul Qadir has dealt a major blow to efforts by Afghan President Hamid Karzai to bring an end to the power of the country’s regional warlords, analysts said.

Karzai has deliberately pursued a strategy of trying to bring regional powerbrokers into government and the agreement of Qadir, regarded as the most powerful man in eastern Afghanistan, to come into the fold was seen as a major achievement for the new president.

The appointment of the ethnic Pashtun was also part of a careful balancing act by Karzai to satisfy all sectors of Afghanistan’s ethnic divide.

But according to Ahmed Rashid, author of the highly-acclaimed book Taliban, the strategy has been badly damaged. “Obviously it is a very serious blow,” Rashid told Agence France-Presse (AFP).

“Haji Qadir was a warlord who had been convinced by Hamid Karzai to come to Kabul and to cooperate with the central government and allow the central government to extend its writ to eastern Afghanistan.

“This was a very positive development ... and was a signal to other warlords that they should also do the same.”

The European Union’s outgoing envoy to Afghanistan said recently that Karzai would face the biggest challenge of his presidency in trying to bring the warlords into the fold.

“From the beginning President Karzai has taken the decision to integrate or include the regional leaders into the governmental policy here in Kabul,” said Klaus-Peter Klaiber.

“I think this is a good approach and ... I can only hope that it will work. That is the big question and the big challenge for the new administration in my opinion.”

Karzai has also tried to bring other regional warlords into government, making Uzbek strongman Abdul Rashid Dostam deputy defense minister in his earlier interim administration and also finding a cabinet post for Ismail Khan, the self-styled Emir of Herat in Afghanistan’s west.

The ultimate goal was to extend the influence of the central government beyond Kabul and increase security.

A senior source from the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) cautioned that Qadir’s assassination should not necessarily be seen as the start of an unraveling of the security situation in Kabul, which has dramatically improved in recent months.

“This shows that it [political violence] is still part of the Afghan landscape,” he told AFP.

“But I do not think it is part of a larger plot which is linked to the wider picture. In spite of this attack the situation in Kabul remains very positive.”

The assassination of Qadir comes less than a week after scores of his fellow ethnic Pashtuns were killed in a bombing raid in central Uruzgan.

Rashid said that the killing could strengthen Karzai’s position by boosting sympathy for the plight of Pashtuns, who were marginalized in the post-Taliban era over their support for the fundamentalist militia.

“Following the bombing of the village in Uruzgan where all the victims were Pashtuns here we have another most prominent Pashtun leader, one of the most moderate Pashtun leaders in eastern Afghanistan being gunned down in such a way.

“This is certainly going to anger a lot of Pashtuns, but it will also create a wave of sympathy and support for Karzai because I think Pashtuns will be generally repulsed by this assassination.”

It could also strengthen support among moderate Pashtuns for the campaign against the extremists to be pursued at a time when more questions were being asked about the long-term goal.

“There will be a lot of anger as to whoever was responsible if it was Taliban or Al- Qaeda or anyone else,” said Rashid.

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