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Setback to Indo-Pak Ties Normalization, Talks May Start At Weekend

Pakistani military spokesman Gen Qureshi showing the body of a Pakistani officer kidnapped, tortured and killed by the Indian army June 19.

By IOL South Asia Correspondent

NEW DELHI, June 26 (IslamOnline) - The Indo-Pak game of see-saw has resumed in right earnest. Resorting to his classic doublespeak, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee started the current verbal war between India and Pakistan when he said Sunday, June 23, that cross-border infiltration had not stopped and that militants from across the border still continued to sneak into the Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. There was no shift in Pakistan’s policy insofar as infiltration is concerned, Vajpayee has reportedly remarked.

Surprisingly though, Vajpayee’s statement, which is at variance with the remarks of his own defense minister and army chief, has come only after four days (less than a week) when defense minister George Fernandes on Wednesday June 19 said that there was “considerable decline in cross-border terrorism as well as infiltration.”

On the same day, the chief of the Indian Army, Gen. Sunderajan Padmanabhan, confirmed Fernandes’ statement, saying there had been a "dramatic drop" in the number of cross-border incursions in Jammu and Kashmir.

“There is no change in Pakistan’s policy on cross-border terrorism. Everyday, we are getting reports that infiltration [by militants into Kashmir] is continuing,” Vajpayee said in an interview with American magazine Newsweek. The latest issue of the magazine also quoted Vajpayee as reiterating his oft-repeated statement that India was ready for talks with Pakistan and discussion of all issues, including Kashmir if Islamabad ended cross-border terrorism and fulfilled its promises to dismantle terrorist training camps.

“If Pakistan implements all the assurances given to us, then a new beginning can be made. India will be ready to have talks with Pakistan and discuss all issues, including Jammu and Kashmir,” Vajpayee asserted.

However, projecting the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government’s rather confused state of mind on its Pakistan policy, defense minister George Fernandes expressed his views which are almost contrary to that of the prime minister’s. Speaking at a press conference at Vijayawada in the south Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, Fernandes on June 16 said that there was a “perceptible change in Pakistan’s behavior towards India of late.”

Commenting on the situation on the Indo-Pak border which has been undergoing change now and then, Fernandes said, “The change is very perceptible now.” Later, again on Wednesday June 19, Fernandes, after meeting U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfield, said” “So far as trans-border terrorism is concerned, there has been considerable decline.”

The army chief also echoed Fernandes’ view. “Infiltration has gone down significantly,” said Gen. Padmanabhan, adding that since May 27, “we have had probably just one attempt which we have intercepted.”

Before the prime minister’s latest statement, Gen. Padmanabhan’s assessment on the prevailing Indo-Pak situation was supposedly considered to be the first of its kind by India since Pakistan President Gen. Pervez Musharraf had on June 6 categorically assured U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage to halt the incursions on a permanent basis.

Nearly one million troops are presently deployed on both sides of the border. The Indo-Pak standoff had started when the Indian Parliament was attacked December 13 and New Delhi accused Pakistan of sponsoring the attacks. Tensions heightened when an Indian army camp was attacked in Jammu May 14. The crisis threatened to blow off, thus resulting in a probable fourth Indo-Pak war.

There was a significant change in the situation on the ground with the defense minister and army chief’s statements. Intense U.S. pressure with a string of diplomatic visits brought down the temperature between the two nuclear-armed rivals. India pulled back its warships from the Arabian Sea and lifted the ban on overflights by Pakistani commercial aircraft. These moves from the Indian side indicated that the situation was slowly returning to normal.

Pakistan President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, in an interview published in the same issue of Newsweek, said, however, that he never made the commitment that infiltration across the Line of Control would come to an end on a "permanent" basis.

Indian soldiers firing field gun near Line of Control in Jammu

The U.S. embassy spokesperson at New Delhi clarified that President Musharraf met Armitage at Islamabad June 6 and assured Washington that "ending of infiltration across the Line of Control would be permanent.... We have seen positive results from that commitment and we have also seen significant positive steps by India since then."

President Musharraf, while denying that he had given an "assurance" to the U.S. of permanently ending cross-border terrorism, maintained at the same time that the normalization of the situation depended on India's response to its demand for "discussion" on Kashmir.

"I've told President Bush nothing is happening across the Line of Control. This is the assurance I've given. I'm not to give you an assurance that for years nothing will happen. We have to have response from India, a discussion about Kashmir," Musharraf was quoted as saying.

When Armitage was visiting Islamabad, they did talk about dismantling of terrorist camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir (Azad Kashmir). "Kashmir is witnessing a freedom struggle. What I said was that there is no movement across the Line of Control," Musharraf said.

As the Indo-Pak situation threatens to backslide, observers in the national capital say the two sides are still locked up in their respective traditional stances on the issue. Pakistan demands reciprocity in terms of initiation of dialogue, which it feels India has been avoiding. The shifting stances and wildly divergent statements of Indian leaders make things more murky and unpredictable.

Meanwhile, TNT, an online Indian daily newspaper, disclosed today, quoting Pakistani foreign ministry sources, that India and Pakistan will most probably revive “hotline diplomacy” at the foreign ministerial level this weekend as a first step towards peace.

TNT said that both India and Pakistan "may finally submit to the United States for the resolution of the Kashmir issue," adding that "the role of a facilitator that the Americans have so far been playing may turn into that of a mediator if the strategy to resolve the issue bilaterally does not work."

Washington has given firm assurances to both India and Pakistan that it is planning to get itself "engaged" in the region which start from August, it added.

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