The U.S. wants Saddam to “disappear”.

By Angy Ghannam, IOL Cairo Staff

CAIRO, June 19 (IslamOnline) – An imminent U.S. strike on Iraq and the expected toppling or killing of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein largely depend on collaboration with Iraqi opposition, Egyptian experts say.

“It is an old idea, and several U.S. attempts to kill the Iraqi president have already failed,” Major General Dr. Mohamed Kadry Said, military adviser in Al-Ahram Center for Political & Strategic Studies (ACPSS), said in an interview with IslamOnline.

“One of these attempts was in 1999, when a plan to assassinate Hussein failed and resulted in a four-day U.S. bombing of Iraq. The failure of the assassination attempt also led Hussein to order the Iraqi army into Kurdish areas,” Said added.

“Iraq will not be attacked in the near future, and the alleged Bush decision [to kill Hussein] that received backing from some congressmen does not mean that the Americans will move now,” said Mohamed Abdel Salam, a military expert in ACPSS.

According to the Washington Post, the U.S. President has given the CIA jurisdiction to accomplish the mission of toppling, capturing or assassinating the Iraqi President.

“I don’t think there is a ready plan right now, as all scenarios are being discussed,” Abdel Salam said, however.

If the American administration has a final decision about eliminating Saddam Hussein, then the issue at stake is the methods or options they have in order to achieve their goal.

“There are three possible scenarios,” explained Said. “The U.S. issued a 1999 law named ‘The Liberation of Iraq’ with a budget of $95 million to support the Iraqi opposition. Therefore, all scenarios mostly depend on the Iraqi opposition forces,” he added.

The first of these possible scenarios, Said said, is that the U.S. air forces in bases in Turkey or the Gulf launch attacks on Iraq, which will result in the dispersion of the Iraqi forces, giving the chance to the opposition forces in Iraq to move on land and occupy different areas.

Bush gave CIA jurisdiction to topple, capture or assassinate Saddam, the Washington Post said.

Another plan could depend on providing the Iraqi opposition with massive weapons, which would enable them to seize Iraqi areas that will form a takeoff point to stronger opposition forces to be used in the future, he said.

A third scenario could come in the form of guerrilla warfare; the Iraqi opposition forces, backed by U.S. weapons and CIA information, would start on and off attacks until the government in Iraq collapses, Said added.

“The U.S. wants to minimize human losses; therefore, they would rather use the same plan they used in Afghanistan,” Said explained, adding that Afghanistan was a different case, and no one can compare Afghanistan to Iraq, or the Taliban to Saddam Hussein.

“Iraq is a much powerful country than Afghanistan, as experts estimate that Iraq has 400,000 soldiers, 2,000 tanks and 1,100 cannons,” he said.

Furthermore, the Iraqi opposition is much weaker then the Northern Alliance forces in Afghanistan, he added.

The idea of using special forces seems very convenient to the Americans, but it is a very difficult idea to achieve, unless a betrayal from within Hussein’s personal security forces occurs. Such a plan needs help and support from within Iraq itself, he said.

“The U.S. has bad memories concerning special forces in this area. They tried to liberate the American hostages in Iran using special forces, but the operation failed,” he added.

The goal of this operation goes beyond Saddam Hussein as a person, and killing him is not the issue here, as his disappearance is enough for the Americans; all they need is that he loses his power, Abdel Salam said.

Said pointed out that even if Hussein tried to escape, he wouldn’t find a place to go to, adding that that if the army collapsed, Hussein would also fall.

“Saddam Hussein is not Osama bin Laden and he doesn’t have the huge space Bin Laden can move in. Bin Laden can go to any Muslim country under the umbrella of being an Islamic fighter, but Saddam doesn’t have any umbrellas to hide under. No country will accept him, as this will mean it could be bombed by the U.S.”

In case the U.S. controlled Iraq, Iran would be in a tough situation, as it will be surrounded by areas under American control, such as Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Gulf, where a U.S. navy fleet is located.

“Iran is fully aware of its critical situation, but there are various indications of communications between Iran and the U.S. Iran is a big country, it can’t be destroyed by the U.S., but it can be contained,” Abdel Salam said.

Concerning the position of Arab countries on the issue of bombing Iraq, Abdel Salam said that although the Arabs have repeatedly expressed their objection to the bombing of Iraq, they may change their minds if the attack takes place.

“The Arab countries may change their minds and help the U.S. if the attack on Iraq becomes a reality that can’t be stopped or denied,” he said.

The Americans will first try all other ways, such as intelligence methods and using the Iraqi opposition. The military solution will be the last resort because of its high budget and possible failure, Abdel Salam said.

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