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Iraqi Opposition Crucial for Killing Saddam: Experts
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The
U.S. wants Saddam to “disappear”.
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By
Angy Ghannam, IOL
Cairo
Staff
CAIRO,
June 19 (IslamOnline) – An imminent U.S. strike on Iraq and the
expected toppling or killing of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein largely
depend on collaboration with Iraqi opposition, Egyptian experts say.
“It
is an old idea, and several U.S. attempts to kill the Iraqi president
have already failed,” Major General Dr. Mohamed Kadry Said, military
adviser in Al-Ahram Center for Political & Strategic Studies
(ACPSS), said in an interview with IslamOnline.
“One
of these attempts was in 1999, when a plan to assassinate Hussein
failed and resulted in a four-day U.S. bombing of Iraq. The failure of
the assassination attempt also led Hussein to order the Iraqi army
into Kurdish areas,” Said added.
“Iraq
will not be attacked in the near future, and the alleged Bush decision
[to kill Hussein] that received backing from some congressmen does not
mean that the Americans will move now,” said Mohamed Abdel Salam, a
military expert in ACPSS.
According
to the Washington Post, the U.S. President has given the CIA
jurisdiction to accomplish the mission of toppling, capturing or
assassinating the Iraqi President.
“I
don’t think there is a ready plan right now, as all scenarios are
being discussed,” Abdel Salam said, however.
If
the American administration has a final decision about eliminating
Saddam Hussein, then the issue at stake is the methods or options they
have in order to achieve their goal.
“There
are three possible scenarios,” explained Said. “The U.S. issued a
1999 law named ‘The Liberation of Iraq’ with a budget of $95
million to support the Iraqi opposition. Therefore, all scenarios
mostly depend on the Iraqi opposition forces,” he added.
The
first of these possible scenarios, Said said, is that the U.S. air
forces in bases in Turkey or the Gulf launch attacks on Iraq, which
will result in the dispersion of the Iraqi forces, giving the chance
to the opposition forces in Iraq to move on land and occupy different
areas.
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Bush
gave CIA jurisdiction to topple, capture or assassinate Saddam,
the Washington Post said.
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Another
plan could depend on providing the Iraqi opposition with massive
weapons, which would enable them to seize Iraqi areas that will form a
takeoff point to stronger opposition forces to be used in the future,
he said.
A
third scenario could come in the form of guerrilla warfare; the Iraqi
opposition forces, backed by U.S. weapons and CIA information, would
start on and off attacks until the government in Iraq collapses, Said
added.
“The
U.S. wants to minimize human losses; therefore, they would rather use
the same plan they used in Afghanistan,” Said explained, adding that
Afghanistan was a different case, and no one can compare Afghanistan
to Iraq, or the Taliban to Saddam Hussein.
“Iraq
is a much powerful country than Afghanistan, as experts estimate that
Iraq has 400,000 soldiers, 2,000 tanks and 1,100 cannons,” he
said.
Furthermore,
the Iraqi opposition is much weaker then the Northern Alliance forces
in Afghanistan, he added.
The
idea of using special forces seems very convenient to the Americans,
but it is a very difficult idea to achieve, unless a betrayal from
within Hussein’s personal security forces occurs. Such a plan needs
help and support from within Iraq itself, he said.
“The
U.S. has bad memories concerning special forces in this area. They
tried to liberate the American hostages in Iran using special forces,
but the operation failed,” he added.
The
goal of this operation goes beyond Saddam Hussein as a person, and
killing him is not the issue here, as his disappearance is enough for
the Americans; all they need is that he loses his power, Abdel Salam
said.
Said
pointed out that even if Hussein tried to escape, he wouldn’t find a
place to go to, adding that that if the army collapsed, Hussein would
also fall.
“Saddam
Hussein is not Osama bin Laden and he doesn’t have the huge space
Bin Laden can move in. Bin Laden can go to any Muslim country under
the umbrella of being an Islamic fighter, but Saddam doesn’t have
any umbrellas to hide under. No country will accept him, as this will
mean it could be bombed by the U.S.”
In
case the U.S. controlled Iraq, Iran would be in a tough situation, as
it will be surrounded by areas under American control, such as
Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Gulf, where a U.S. navy fleet is
located.
“Iran
is fully aware of its critical situation, but there are various
indications of communications between Iran and the U.S. Iran is a big
country, it can’t be destroyed by the U.S., but it can be
contained,” Abdel Salam said.
Concerning
the position of Arab countries on the issue of bombing Iraq, Abdel
Salam said that although the Arabs have repeatedly expressed their
objection to the bombing of Iraq, they may change their minds if the
attack takes place.
“The
Arab countries may change their minds and help the U.S. if the attack
on Iraq becomes a reality that can’t be stopped or denied,” he
said.
The
Americans will first try all other ways, such as intelligence methods
and using the Iraqi opposition. The military solution will be the last
resort because of its high budget and possible failure, Abdel Salam
said.
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