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Hardline Indian Home Minister Proposes Indo-Pak Confederation 

Pakistani students demonstrate for peace in Karachi

By IOL South Asia Correspondent

NEW DELHI, June 9 (IslamOnline) - "If East and West Germany could unite, there was no reason why India and Pakistan could not form a confederation of their own free will," said India's hard-line Home Minister L.K. Advani Saturday, June 8, the same day Pakistan downed a pilotless Indian aircraft and seven hundred thousand Indian soldiers stood for invading Pakistan at a moment's notice.

"A day will come when the people of both countries will realize that partition has done no good to them," said the hawk minister, who could easily be described as Pakistan's enemy no 1 in India. He was speaking after launching a monthly journal, South Asia Politics, in Delhi.

"The most important thing to move towards a confederation is that all disputes and problems between India and Pakistan be resolved only through dialogue and not by violence or terrorism", the home minister said.

Referring to an assessment of the U.S. Administration about the possibility of "revolutionary change" in Indo-Pak relations during the Lahore bus trip by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, he said this could not happen "as the then Pakistan army chief (Pervez Musharraf) had other things in mind which led to the Kargil war".

There are signs from both India and Pakistan that things are definitely moving in the de-escalation direction. India Saturday welcomed the pledge given by Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf to the U.S. about "immediately and permanently" ending cross-border infiltration of so-called terrorists into Jammu and Kashmir. India said it was a step in the right direction.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage, who left India Saturday, brought this message to India and demanded a quid pro quo which understandably will come within the next few days, before the arrival June 11 of U.S. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld.

This reform will probably be in the form of some "diplomatic" gestures which may mean reversing some measures taken at the beginning of the escalation like reducing the strength of the Pakistani embassy staff, recalling the Indian ambassador from Islamabad and later expelling his Pakistan counterpart in Delhi, and disallowing Pakistani civil aircraft flights over Indian airspace.

"This is a step forward and in the right direction," External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh told U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell on telephone. Jaswant Singh informed Colin Powell that India welcomes the pledge that Musharraf has given U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage about "immediately and permanently" ending cross-border infiltration of militants into Jammu and Kashmir.

Armitage too said the tensions between the South Asian nuclear-armed rivals had "eased a bit" and both country's leaders were intent on avoiding war.

Pakistan too issued positive signs. Islamabad said Saturday it had noticed a "very slight reduction in tension" with India as a result of efforts by the international community. Nevertheless, it sounded skeptical about New Delhi's proposal for joint patrolling of the LoC.  

"It appears that there is a very slight reduction in tension but the real de-escalation and reduction in tension will take place only when the Indian forces deployed on forward positions in an offensive posture are withdrawn from the borders," Foreign Office spokesman Aziz Ahmed Khan told the BBC. "We are gratified that the international community is paying attention and they are trying to defuse the situation and reduce tension," he added.

Pakistan's downing of an unmanned Indian aircraft over its territory does not seem to have had any effect. India called it a "routine" flight. Last year, India downed a Pakistan "Atlantique" spy plane which violated the Indian airspace.

According to Pakistani sources, the downed unmanned Indian 'spy' plane was carrying an Israeli-made camera.

Border migrants in a camp near Jammu in India

Pakistan has also shown some enthusiasm for India's offer of joint patrolling of the Line of Control in Kashmir. It has termed the proposal as "serious" and wanted New Delhi to present it "formally." The proposal made by the Indian Prime Minister Thursday, June 6, appeared to be "beginning of dialogue" and Islamabad wanted New Delhi to present it through diplomatic channels formally, Pakistan's Information Minister Nisar Memon said.

India, on the other hand, has quietly asked the U.S. to inspect what it describes as "suspected terrorist camps" in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. "In a very informal sense, we have conveyed to the Americans that if they verify the camps are closed, we are going to believe them," a senior Indian intelligence official was quoted as saying by the Los Angeles Times Saturday in a report from New Delhi.

U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has delayed his visit by a few days. Analysts say that the Americans are trying to prolong the parleys as long as possible so as to consume most time before the monsoon season which will start here at the end of the current month. In other words, if parleys keep them busy until the end of the third week there will be no immediate danger of war. India reportedly planned to go to war for "a week" at the middle of this month.

According to the alleged scenario, international pressure and U.N. intervention would save the day and at the end of a week of fighting India would have accomplished its goal of destroying the Fedayeen (resistance) camps in Azad Kashmir in addition to hitting some vital military and economic facilities in Pakistan enough to set back Pakistan "thirty years".

This became a strong possibility when President Musharraf, under western pressure, ruled out the "first-use-option" of nuclear weapons which alone has deterred India during the height of the current tension. Without the nuclear factor, India enjoys clear advantage over Pakistan in the traditional warfare.

The international community has tried to bring home to the leaders of the two countries the possible devastating effects on both countries and the region of the use of nuclear weapons. U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld will be accompanied by an American expert on nuclear weapons during his talks with the leadership of the two countries.

Adm. James Ellis, Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Strategic Command, will accompany Rumsfeld during his meetings with President Musharraf in Islamabad and Prime Minister Vajpayee in New Delhi. Ellis is a senior military official with detailed knowledge of Pakistan and India's nuclear capabilities.

The United States said Friday, June 7, that it has "growing indications that infiltration across the Line of Control is down significantly" and looked forward to India taking feasible and concrete steps to lower tensions with Pakistan, according to the State Department spokesman Richard Boucher.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Armitage with the Indian foreign minister Jaswant Singh

Meanwhile, three civilians, including two women, were killed and seven injured in unabated shelling and firing by Pakistani troops from across the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB) in Jammu division since Friday, official sources said today. Two persons, including a woman, were killed and another woman was injured when Pakistani troops targeted Sagara village in Balnoi-Mendhar area with mortar bombs Friday night, the sources said.

Exchange of mortar shelling and heavy firing between the two sides was also reported from Mangalnar, Pathrar, Bhawani and Noushera areas of Rajouri district and Swajian, Gagrian and Poonch town in Poonch district since Friday evening, they said. Intermittent exchange of light arms firing took place at 49 places along the IB in Jammu and Kathua districts during the last 24 hours, they added.

In separate incidents, eight persons, including three army personnel and four village defense committee members (VDC), were killed by militants since Friday night, while a bomb planted in a bus was defused in Jammu region. Three army personnel were killed in an encounter with militants at Sultanpathri in Loran-Mandi area of Poonch district this morning while body of a woman was found near Udhaywalla in Jammu district, sources said.

More than one hundred and fifty thousand (0.150 m) people have so far migrated from border villages of Kathua, Jammu, Rajouri and Poonch districts in Jammu division due to shelling and firing by Pakistani troops since last month. Jammu and Kashmir chief secretary IS Malhi said Friday that a new relief package was being implemented for border migrants from this month.

Jammu and Kashmir's oldest and premier pro-independence group, Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), Friday urged the world community to get the dispute of Kashmir resolved between India and Pakistan to end the fears of atomic war in the region permanently, according to a press statement by the JKLF issued at Srinagar.

"It is encouraging that world community is trying its best to prevent an atomic war in the region," the release said. "But fears of atomic war can be permanently banished if the issue of Kashmir is resolved as per the wishes and aspirations of the people." The group's chairman, Yasin Malik, is at present in prison.

On Friday, police arrested Hurriyat Conference leader Syed Ali Geelani to stop him from leading an anti-election rally at Patan, 27 kilometers north of Srinagar. Geelani is one of the seven executive members of Kashmir's main separatist alliance.

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