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UN Staff Families In Pakistan, India Evacuated

Millions of troops are on the alert in the volatile area

NEW DELHI, June 1 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) - Families of UN staff in New Delhi are sent home due to simmering tension between India and Pakistan over Kashmir that world leaders fear could explode into warfare, a UN official said Saturday.

"There was a meeting of the UN staff in New Delhi and the decision is to send the dependents of the international staff to their countries on home leave," said the director of the UN Information Center in New Delhi, Feodyor Starcevic, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP). "It is because of the tension," he added.

"The plan is to reduce the number of international staff without affecting any UN work in India and Pakistan. This will be done in the next few days up to early next week," Starcevic explained.

He stressed that the action shouldn't be seen as an "evacuation" and that the UN was merely falling in line with programs the United States, Britain and other Western countries began implementing Friday.

Meanwhile, an Islamabad-based diplomat said, "A decision has been taken in New York to proceed with the evacuation of the families very quickly. This decision also applies to families of the staff in India."

The pullout of several hundred family members will be carried out "in the next few days", he said, adding that it had yet to be decided whether the dependents would fly out on commercial flights or on chartered aircraft.

"This is obviously linked to the very strong tensions," confirmed a UN source, adding that the evacuation order was "mandatory".

The source said the decision came as a "surprise" and was likely made at UN headquarters overnight, after a flurry of peace missions by foreign envoys seeking to defuse the brewing crisis.

In a separately related development, a U.S. defense official said Friday that between nine million and 12 million people would die in a "worst-case" nuclear war between India and Pakistan, citing a classified Pentagon assessment.

That projection does not take into account subsequent deaths from disease, famine and contaminated water supplies, only the immediate casualties of a nuclear conflagration between the South Asian neighbors, the official told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The classified assessment was updated last week by the Defense Intelligence Agency amid soaring tensions between India and Pakistan as they squared off over Kashmir.

In the worst case scenario, the official said, "the fatalities would be between nine [million] and 12 million and the injuries between two [million] and six million" in the short term.

"Long-term, you would be talking about starvation, pollution of the water tables, birth defects, and all that other stuff," the official said.

The scenario took the number of nuclear weapons each side was believed to have, and matched them to their most likely target list, then assumed all weapons would be successfully delivered and all would burst on the ground, sending up clouds of radioactive fallout, the official said.

Because of the greater fallout, such ground-burst nuclear explosions would likely produce several million more casualties than if nuclear weapons were detonated in the air.

An airburst nuclear explosion produces "more damage on structures but it doesn't produce the fallout that a surface burst does," the official said.

Jane's Strategic Weapons Systems estimates that India has between 50 and 150 nuclear weapons, and Pakistan between 25 and 50.

The U.S. defense official said the Indian nuclear weapons were estimated to be in the low 10-kiloton range while the Pakistanis' were in the 20-kiloton range.

The atomic bomb that devastated Hiroshima at the end of World War II was approximately 14 kilotons.

The official said the DIA assessment was based on a "worst-case scenario" that made some liberal assumptions.

For instance, it assumed Pakistan would likely deliver its nuclear weapons with F-16 fighters and that all would get through India's integrated air defenses, the official said.

Pakistan also has two nuclear-capable ballistic missiles -- the Shaheen and the Ghauri, with ranges of 700 kilometers (420 miles) and 1,500 kilometers (900 miles) respectively.

India, for its part, was judged most likely to use Soviet-made MiG-27 fighters to deliver its nuclear weapons. It also has nuclear-capable British-made Jaguar aircraft.

India has only one nuclear-capable ballistic missile, the Prithvi-I, with a range of only 150 kilometers (90 miles), the official said. It is testing a longer range Prithvi-II missile.

For his part, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said he is prepared to lay out for India and Pakistan the horrific consequences of a nuclear war when he visits the region next week. 

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