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Indian Political Parties Desperately Seek Muslim Votes
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The UP elections are of utmost importance to the future of India |
By Zafarul-Islam Khan
IOL South Asia Correspondent
NEW DELHI, Feb. 14 (IslamOnline) - Today, India's largest state, Uttar Pradesh (UP), will go to polls along with three other states in the north namely Punjab, Uttaranchal and Manipur. These elections, especially in UP, which will decide the course of Indian politics for the next few years. Elections are slated to be held in UP in three phases, on February 14, 18 and 21.
Muslims, who constitute around 20 percent of the state's population, are going to play an immensely important role in the polls. Hindus, who make the rest of the population, are bitterly divided on caste and political lines. Every political party, from SP, BSP, Congress, BJP to several smaller outfits, are vying for Muslim votes.
The BSP has fielded Muslim candidates in 86 (out of 403) seats, almost double the number of nominees belonging to the minority community fielded by the SP, in an apparent attempt to wean away a section of the society. The Congress has also nominated 79 Muslim candidates, in an apparent bid to attract more Muslims towards it.
In addition to these party candidates, there are as many independent Muslim candidates vying for Muslim votes, especially in around 100 constituencies in the state where Muslim voters account for 20-25 percent. There are 58 constituencies where Muslims exceed 25 percent and 11 constituencies where they are at least 50 percent of the voters.
Muslims drifted away from the Congress since the Babri Masjid demolition in December 1992 when the Congress was in power at the center. Muslims are yet to forgive the Congress for its collusion in the crime. The SP is considered the savior of the Muslim community after the demolition of the Babri Masjid. Yet, it has given less representation to Muslims in its list of candidates as compared to the two major opposition parties, the BSP and the Congress. It has nominated only 54 Muslim candidates. In contrast, the BJP has nominated a single Muslim on its list of 319 candidates.
Caught in the crossfire of secular parties and their seduction strategies, ordinary Muslims are facing a dilemma of choices that end up dividing rather than uniting their ranks. Muslims are the most backward segment of the society in UP. Faced with debilitating poverty, huddled together in shacks and stuck with the lowest levels of literacy in the state, the community is crying for attention.
The disillusionment has deepened given the grim environment in which the polls are being conducted. Although the memory of the demolition of the Babri Masjid is fading, a war-like situation at the Indo-Pak borders and the fear of being made a scapegoat in the 'war on terrorism' has made the community paranoid.
The ban on Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) is largely being viewed by the community as an attempt to criminalize and imprison Muslim youths. The anti-terrorism ordinance, POTO, which is perceived as mainly targeting Muslims and their institutions and organizations, is also being seen as a direct assault on the community. The current talk of banning Muslim madrasas is also seen as a conspiracy to de-school the children of poor Muslims who are already plagued with the scour of illiteracy.
Muslims who have favored the SP for the last decade, are not going to vote for it blindly any longer. They are believed to prefer strong candidates from within the community as well as candidates from outside the community regardless of the presence of a Muslim candidate if it believes that such a candidate has slim chances to defeat a BJP aspirant.
The SP and the Congress have come out with lavish promises to the Muslim community to win support. The SP has virtually promised moon to the Muslims. In its election manifesto, it has announced a seven-point action plan for the welfare of the minorities. It includes withdrawal of cases of political nature against Muslims, reservation in educational institutions and government services for the minority community, setting up of a World Urdu Center in the state, setting up a minority commission for madrasas and creation of a minority development ministry.
On the other hand, the Congress has assured Muslims that if voted to power, its government would provide proportionate representation to the community in jobs in the Provincial Armed Constabulary (PAC) and make Urdu the second official language in the state.
PAC, the anti-riot force, is known for its strong anti-Muslim leanings. The Congress has also assured the Muslim community that, if voted to power in the state, it will repeal the controversial Religious Bill which restricts Muslim freedom to construct new mosques and madrasas. The Congress election manifesto has also reiterated its commitment to abide by the court verdict or a negotiated settlement in the Babri Mosque issue while the Hindu zealots want to bypass both to build their Ram temple on the site of the martyred mosque.
For the BJP, the Ram Temple issue has ceased to be an electoral plank. After the demolition of the Babri Mosque, the Temple issue lost its appeal. The Temple issue appeared only at the end of the party's election manifesto this time round. The rightist Hindu party, which had been chanting that the Ram temple would be constructed at the very disputed site, has changed its tune since and has preferred a settlement through court order or negotiations with Muslims.
Like earlier elections, the BJP is unlikely to get substantial Muslim votes. The BSP is not in the habit of issuing election manifestoes but it has given maximum numbers of seats to Muslims and hence it will get some Muslim support.
In the given scenario, the BJP seems to be the most disadvantaged party in the state. Far from adding to its existing tally, it simply wants to retain whatever belongs to it at present. The party may be wiped off in western UP.
No party is complacent about the polls in UP, the most populous and certainly the most important state in India, with a population of 170 million people - one sixth of the total population of the country - 100 million of them voters. UP alone elects 80 parliamentarians to the national Parliament out of 545 members.
The elections are billed as a referendum for the BJP, which is ruling both the UP and central governments at the head of a coalition. The outcome in UP will show the people's verdict on the ruling BJP's policies and performance in the state as well as at the center.
All major political parties including the BJP, Congress Party, Samajwadi Party (SP) and the BSP, besides small regional parties, have deployed their top leaders to canvass for them in this crucial electoral battle. Anyone who could catch the electorates' attention is being deployed. Major political parties are exhausting all avenues to lure voters. Most parties have enlisted top cinema stars in order to attract big crowds. Every party has also nominated people with criminal records. The ratio of criminals among each party's candidates has been worked out at 10 to 20 percent.
For the BJP, the rightist Hindu party, stakes are very high, as it has been in power in the state for the last five years. It is also the ruling party in the center for the last three years. The party has been trying hard through various ways to retain its slipping vote bank. It has already tested three chief ministers in as many years, including the current incumbent, Rajnath Singh, and has played every conceivable card to win more and more voters, though with little success. It is perceived as a front of high castes and traders.
BJP's period in government has been marred by internal factional disputes, outright corruption, inducing splits in rival parties and winning loyalties by offering bribes, including ministerial and other top posts. The chief minister has made a host of belated announcements for almost every segment of the population. He has come up with packages for various segments of backward classes, besides teachers, students and every conceivable section of the state's electorate including Muslims.
According to most pre-poll surveys, UP is once again heading for a hung legislative assembly, but no one can quite predict which party is going to form the next state government. All predictions and opinion polls say that the SP, a socialist party with strong Muslim support, will bag the largest number of seats. However, it is not a forgone conclusion that the SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav, a former defense minister, will be crowned as the chief minister.
The state has witnessed in the past how Ms. Mayawati, the leader of the backward castes' Bahujan Samaj Party, managed to get the chief minister's post twice with the support of other parties, although her party did not enjoy a majority. Mayawati, though not still in the reckoning, can never be written off due to her hold on the backward castes, particularly the so-called 'Untouchables' who prefer to be called 'Dalits' and represent the lowest strata of the Hindu society.
The real battle will be between the ruling BJP and the largest opposition party in the state, SP. Presumably one of the few diehard secular parties left in the country, the SP had won 136 seats in the state assembly during the previous elections.
SP's strength went down later to around a hundred seats due to induced defections and desertions engineered by the BJP government in the state. It enjoyed merely 22 seats less than that of the BJP's 158 seats with which it has ruled the state for five years through engineering multiple defections in different parties including the BSP, SP and the Congress.
BJP is in the most uncomfortable situation in the state. Without the Ram temple issue to bank upon, though it is still trying to play this card through its allies, and with its reservation sops for backward castes now barred by the Supreme Court of India, the situation has become fluid. To offset its image of being a higher caste party, the BJP has fielded more than 160 candidates from the backward castes. However, this tactic has backfired, with its committed caste voters angry for denial of nominations to upper caste candidates.
Stakes are very high for the BJP. If it does well and Rajnath Singh, the present chief minister, is able to form the government again in the state, the central government in New Delhi will be considerably strengthened. The BJP-led coalition (NDA) at the center, including Samata Party, Lok Dal, Janashakti, who are now increasingly belligerent, will be forced to give up their rebellion against the BJP, at least for the time being.
If the wind goes against the BJP, as is being widely predicted, and the SP is able to form the next government with the Congress in tow, it will be dubbed a victory for the secular forces and the rightist BJP will be put in a tight spot. Congress, the main opposition party at the center, that ruled the state for forty years after independence in 1947, has been relegated to the fourth place in the state. This expected outcome might induce some present BJP allies to review their continued support to the rightist Hindu party and join some other coalition.
There are strong indications that the BJP in this election in UP will be relegated to the second if not the third position. Several BJP partners and rebel candidates are in the fray. Top rebel is Kalyan Singh, the former chief minister of UP, who was ousted unceremoniously by his bosses in the BJP. He has thrown a gauntlet at the BJP and is fielding candidates from all the 403 seats in the state.
Kalyan Singh's functionaries are openly claiming that they are not in the business to win many seats, but want to destroy any prospects of the BJP coming back to power. He is not the only headache for the BJP. Ashok Yadav, an influential Dalit leader who was removed from his ministerial post just a few months ago, has also fielded candidates for around fifty seats in the state and is sure to take away a large chunk of the BJP's backward votes with him.
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