Iran at the Crossroads

Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant

The recent decision by Iran to comply with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) demands to suspend its uranium enrichment program continues to highlight Tehran’s desire to acquire nuclear weapons. By complying with the demands of the IAEA, Tehran has been able to prevent the United States from coaxing the United Nations to place sanctions on the Iranian government – an outcome that would damage Iran’s political, economic and military stability, and also stifle its quest to acquire nuclear arms. Instead, Iran is delaying its nuclear weapons program in exchange for more technological and economic assistance from the European Union, Russia and other states that it has diplomatic and economic relations with.

Indeed, the European Union offered Iran access to modern nuclear technology in exchange for Iran’s suspension of its uranium enrichment program in addition to allowing more rigorous inspections of its nuclear facilities. Because failing to agree to these terms would give the United States political ammunition to use against the Iranian government in the UN Security Council, Tehran had few options. But through complying with the IAEA demands, Iran is now able to forge improved relations with the states of the European Union that are eager to increase their already robust economic cooperation with the oil- and gas-rich Persian state.

Iran and Russia: Intersecting Interests

Russia, too, has important political, economic and military relations with Iran. Moscow has been building a nuclear reactor in the southern Iranian city of Bushehr, much to the consternation of Washington and Israel. Russia is also a major supplier of military equipment to Iran; in the last decade, Moscow has provided Tehran with MiG-29 fighter aircraft, Su-24 fighter bombers, T-72 tanks, and Kilo class attack submarines. Russia and India have been collaborating with Russia’s state-owned gas company, Gazprom, to build a pipeline that would export gas from Iran to India. Any change of leadership in Tehran would put this important deal in jeopardy. Moscow’s assistance to Tehran shows no sign of abating, despite pressure from the United States. Indeed, pressure on Moscow from the Bush administration probably causes Russia to increase its involvement with Iran.

Russia’s involvement with Iran exists for economic and strategic reasons. For instance, in exchange for building the nuclear reactor at Bushehr, Russia has been compensated with much-needed financial capital. Plus, there is talk in Tehran of the need for more nuclear reactors, which may further buoy Moscow’s financial assets. In addition to financial interests, Moscow is hoping to turn Iran into a bastion against US influence in the Middle East and Central Asia. Through the invasion of Afghanistan, the United States was able to construct military bases in many former Soviet states, such as Uzbekistan,Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.This newly-added influence is worrying to the leadership in Moscow, which fears Washington’s encroachment on its southern border.

The invasion of Iraq caused further strain in Moscow as it increased Washington’s role in the Middle East. If the Bush administration were able to orchestrate the downfall of the present Iranian government, and replace it with one that supports American interests rather than Russian interests, it would result in a strategic disaster for the Russian Federation,as its former rival would have influence in countries all along its southern border, from the Middle East to Central Asia.

Choosing to Cooperate

These reasons explain why the European Union and Russia have been acting against US interests and are protecting the Iranian government from US aggression. This support helps insulate Iran from threats emanating from Washington. Iran can now theoretically utilize the time that the European Union has given it in order to increase its economic and military infrastructure. By doing so, Iran will be able to prepare for a future date when rival states may attempt to physically weaken its growing power.

Iran’s security situation has deteriorated drastically following the US invasion of Afghanistan. Hostile US forces are now located on its eastern and western borders and the country faces continuous threats from Israel; Tel Aviv has warned that it may launch an air strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities to prevent the state from gaining too much power. By choosing the route of cooperation with the international community, Iran is making it politically and militarily difficult for Israel and the US to destroy its nuclear research program. If Iran now reaches the point when it could quickly develop nuclear arms, it may do so and declare itself a nuclear-armed state in order to protect its territorial integrity and leadership structure.

Erich Marquardt is an analyst with the Power and Interest News Report, found on the web at www.pinr.com.