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 The
alliance won, but the war is far from over.
The war in Afghanistan has witnessed gradual changes over
the past short period. Despite the harsh U.S. air and missile
strikes against targets of the Taliban regime and al Qaeda
organisation, these strikes have not resulted in a quick collapse
of the Taliban movement. The U.S.-led strikes, moreover, took
longer time than what was planned before.
Two key factors contributed to the change in the military
situation. First, the
severe air strikes gradually eliminated the military potential of
the Taliban and al Qaeda and reduced their ability to stand
against the Northern Alliance troops.
Second, the military assistance the U.S. and its European
allies poured on the Northern Alliance played a very important
role in amending the military balance to the favour of the
opposition. The opposition forces previously suffered sharp
shortage in weapons, equipment and ammunition that undermined its
attempts to take the strategic northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif in
past attacks when the Taliban forces were still intact and
remained unaffected by the U.S. air and missile strikes.
Dimensions
of the Strategic Shift
The
latest developments cause some sort of confusion especially in
explaining their indications and reflections on the development of
the military action in Afghanistan. There are three main
possibilities in explaining these developments: The first
explanation is that Taliban’s decision to withdraw troops from
the main cities and provinces was the prelude for a general
collapse of the movement after the fast advance made by the
Northern Alliance forces, backed by U.S. air and missile strikes.
This explanation also depends on the fact that the military
potential of Taliban is already weakening after its withdrawal,
seizure and the breakaway of several Pashtun tribes who did not
also defect to the opposition, but also offered protection and
security guarantees for Taliban commanders who desert the movement
to the anti-Taliban opposition.
The
second possibility is that the latest developments set the stage
for a new round of conflict. Some Taliban sources say that the
Taliban’s withdrawal from the capital Kabul to other areas of
Pashtun majority, like Kandahar and Urzugan, was “an intentional
and tactical redeployment” aiming at regrouping the movement’s
troops to prepare for a fresh round of guerilla warfare.
Furhermore, the Taliban has not lost its control on all areas of
Afghanistan and still controls southern areas with Pashtun
majority. Many U.S.
officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney, do agree and warn
that Taliban’s pullout of Kabul and other main cities does not
mean the war is closer to an end. They also point out that Taliban
fighters started resorting to mountains to start guerilla warfare
struggle, which means the war would continue.
The
third alternative is that the new round of the conflict will take
the form of on-again-off-again skirmishes between the opposition
and the allied tribes on one side and the remains of the Taliban
and al Qaeda forces from the other side. This possibility is
likely under two conditions; the first is that the Northern
Alliance troops manage to control the vast majority of the Afghan
territory or to reach an agreement with the southern Pashtun
tribes to get rid of the Taliban and the second is that leaders of
the Taliban and al Qaeda are either arrested or killed. In this
case, the two groups will disintegrate into dozens of small groups
which will act individually without a common strategy.
In
analyzing the three possibilities, it is almost certain that the
Taliban movement decided to withdraw troops without battles from
key cities for two reasons: to regroup and prepare for a long
guerilla war against the United States and the Northern Alliance,
and to spare Afghan civilians more U.S. attacks. After Taliban’s
withdrawal from key cities and areas, the United States would no
longer find a justification for attacking civilians.
The
Next Round of Conflict
In
the next round of the conflict, each party will carry out a new
strategy in accordance with the new goals. On their part, the U.S.
troops and the Northern Alliance will focus on expanding their
control to the rest of the Afghan areas, especially the city of
Kandahar and the southern areas of Afghanistan, and pursuing the
operation to expel the Taliban and al Qaeda troops. On line with
these strategies, the U.S. forces would continue a wide-range hot
pursuit against Mulla Mohammed Omar, leader of the Taliban, and
Osama bin Laden, head of the al Qaeda organization and his key
assistants.
Though
some U.S. officials remarked that the advance and progress made in
the military field over the past few days would make the hunt for
bin Laden an easier task, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald
Rumsfeld were quoted describing the chase of Taliban and al Qaeda
leaders as “searching for a needle in a haystack.” This
indicates that U.S. troops are still facing a hard and complicated
mission ahead.
Consequently,
the United States is planning to send more special troops into
Afghanistan to carry out the hunt down in addition to enhancing
U.S. presence in Afghanistan through establishing military bases
for U.S. troops and aircraft. The U.S. is currently working to
repair some airports in north Afghanistan and to secure an airport
in the south to be used for U.S. military operations.
On
the other hand, the Taliban are expected to focus on guerilla
attacks against the U.S. troops and their Afghan allies. Guerilla
warfare is the best strategic alternative the Taliban may adopt
for many reasons, at the top of which are the weak military
capabilities of the movement, the overwhelming U.S. military
supremacy and the rugged mountainous topography of Afghanistan
which provide an ideal battlefield for guerilla warfare. The
strategy of the Taliban and al Qaeda was based on waiting for the
U.S. ground troops to enter Afghanistan to launch guerilla warfare
against them. This means that the war may witness serious
escalation in the coming period. Taliban official assessments say
that the latest developments ushered a real start, rather than an
end, to the conflict.
Strengths
and Weaknesses
An
assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of each party in the
Afghan conflict is indeed necessary to be able to forecast the
future prospects for the new round of conflict, especially in
light of the latest developments in Afghanistan.
On
the side of the Taliban, it is clear that the latest developments
will allow both the Taliban movement and al Qaeda organization to
start implementing their guerilla warfare-based military strategy
against U.S. troops, especially after the arrival of U.S. ground
troops to the Afghan capital Kabul in addition to the deployment
of some U.S. troops in different areas of Afghanistan. However,
the latest developments caused some losses on the part of the
Taliban. These
losses were the following:
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The
Taliban ability to hold on and resist is limited. Apart from
the leading elite of the Taliban and al Qaeda and the Islamic
Sharia students – who helped found the Taliban movement –
other Taliban members may not be able to resist pressure for
long. This may cause more defections in the remaining Taliban
group. At the same time, the Taliban have lost support and
backing of many tribes, including some Pashtun tribes which
were the traditional supporters of the movement. There are
inherent tensions between the Pashtun tribes and the Arab and
Chechen fighters who form the backbone of the al Qaeda
organization. Moreover, many individuals and tribes have
protested against restrictions imposed by the Taliban. The
anti-Taliban sentiment will grow if the group’s military
condition further deteriorates.
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Taliban’s
withdrawal from main cities – though justified as a tactical
move to shift the military strategy and regroup the remaining
troops – has sapped the morale of the movement’s members
and supporters. Unless Taliban launches a quick military
counter operation, its moral setback will escalate and the
group will be forced to take defensive stance which only means
further advancement by the Northern Alliance troops. On the
other hand, the Taliban ability to keep control of some areas
seems very limited in light of the harsh U.S. bombardment and
the continual advances of the Northern Alliance. This means
that the Taliban may make further withdrawals to finally
concentrate their deployments in fortified mountainous areas.
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The Taliban’s
ability to get food supplies, ammunition and weapons is
obviously shrinking. The only source of supply to the Taliban
was some fundamentalist Pakistani groups, especially the Hizb
Gamaa Islamia, led by Sheikh Qadi Hussein, and Ulmaa al-Islam
society, led by Maulana Fadul Rahman. However, the two leaders
have been placed under house arrest by the Pakistani
authorities. Since the start of the U.S.-led military
campaign, it became clear that the Pakistani groups’ ability
to provide supplies and volunteers to the Taliban is very
tight, due to the restrictions imposed by the Pakistani
government. Shortage of supply, therefore, is expected to
weaken the ability of both Taliban and al Qaeda to resist.
On
the side of the U.S., the latest developments in Afghanistan
formed a very significant victory for the United States, enabling
it to tighten the noose around bin Laden and his assistants to
arrest or assassinate them. Some U.S. officials started claiming
victory while others sought a chance to settle old scores with
those who criticized the performance of the U.S. campaign and
military plan in Afghanistan, accusing their planners of failing
to achieve tangible results.
U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney said both the U.S. campaign
and military plans proved to be working. Yet, the latest
developments may be a mere prelude for a war of attrition if the
United States deploys a large number of troops in Afghanistan.
Although the U.S. military plan gives special attention to
providing maximum security for soldiers and personnel, casualties
are still likely to be suffered on the part of the U.S. troops if
the Taliban and al Qaeda were to wage a guerilla warfare.
On
the side of the Northern Alliance, we find that it has managed to
achieve important military victories against the Taliban, thus
enhancing its political position in the country. Yet, this does
not necessarily mean that the Alliance became in full control of
Afghanistan. Its potentials are very limited because it is based
on the minority Uzbeks and Tajiks and therefore it will not be
able to spread control over most of the Afghan territory. The
Northern Alliance’s capabilities to maintain territories under
their control is also in doubt, due to the limited military
potential of the alliance. The coming period may witness
successive shifts in control over different parts of Afghanistan.
At
the same time, grave historic disputes among members of the
Northern Alliance may explode anytime, especially when the
alliance starts considering power share. The internal differences
among the Northern Alliance member groups are probably greater
than the differences between each group and the Taliban. The
arch-foes in the Northern Alliance have only one thing in common:
animosity to the Taliban.
Disputes
are likely to surface soon. Some problems have already been
observed after reports about fighting among troops of three key
Alliance commanders in the northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif.
Involved in the fighting were general Mohammed Atta,
commander-general of the Northern Alliance troops, Uzbek commander
Abdulrashid Dustom and general Mohammed Mohayek. This is a very
dangerous development. Meanwhile,
the Northern Alliance troops acquired a bad reputation from
earlier rounds of conflict. In 1997, when the Northern Alliance
temporarily took the Mazar-i-Sharif they committed bloodbaths in
the city. After the
Northern Alliance took Mazar-i-Sharif and Kabul, looting,
arbitrary arrests and massive human right violations were
reported. Such practices may cause a vicious circle of instability
that impedes humanitarian aid to northern areas threatened with
starvation.
In
this context, political disputes are emerging among non-Taliban
elements in the Afghani political arena, with each of them waiting
to participate in the post-Taliban extended coalition government.
These disputes were demonstrated when ousted president Burhannudin
Rabani opposed the participation of deposed King Mohammed Zhaher
Shah in future political arrangements in Afghanistan. Rabani’s
attitude completely contradicts earlier agreements.
The
War is Not Over
It
can be argued that the military success achieved by the
U.S.-backed Northern Alliance against the Taliban does not imply
that the war in Afghanistan is coming to an end. On the contrary,
this war is far from over. In
fact, it is merely in its early stages. It will be difficult for
the Northern Alliance troops to maintain control over the areas
under their grip. New forms of military struggle will appear in
the coming period.
Taliban’s
withdrawal from the main cities has not resulted in the
movement’s collapse. It will maintain an ability of military
resistance due to the main supporters of religious leaders,
theology students and Afghan Arabs. This means that the war in
Afghanistan is on the threshold of a new, probably harsher and
more violent, stage.
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