December 17, 2002
Most Unconvinced on Iraq War
Two-thirds believe Bush has failed to make the case an
attack would be justified. Many think weapons are there,
but they want proof.
By Maura Reynolds, Times Staff Writer
WASHINGTON -- Despite a concerted effort by the Bush
administration, more than two-thirds of Americans believe
the president has failed to make the case that a war with
Iraq is justified, according to a Los Angeles Times poll.
The overwhelming majority of respondents — 90% — said they
do not doubt that Iraq is developing weapons of mass
destruction. But in the absence of new evidence from U.N.
inspectors, 72% of respondents, including 60% of
Republicans, said the president has not provided enough
evidence to justify starting a war with Iraq.
The results underscore the importance of the outcome of
U.N. arms inspections underway in Iraq if the Bush
administration expects to gain clear public support for an
attack.
"I'm not against [war] if it is necessary," said 59-year-
old Kramer Smith, a preacher, carpenter and registered
Republican from Bloomfield, Iowa, one of a number of
respondents who explained their views in follow-up
interviews. "But I think we need to be pretty sure before
we start pulling in the big guns. If they could put their
hands on evidence of real production of weapons of mass
destruction, then I would say go ahead and do it."
The poll also found that support for a possible war appears
to be weakening, with 58% saying they support a ground
attack on Iraq. In an August Times poll, 64% said they
would support a ground attack. Last January, after
President Bush first denounced Saddam Hussein in his State
of the Union address, the Times and other polls found
support for military action greater than 70%.
"Still, almost three-quarters of Americans approve of the
way George W. Bush is handling the threat of terrorism in
the country, and nearly three out of five also approve of
his handling of the country's affairs," said Susan Pinkus,
who directed The Times poll.
Traditionally, support is low before a president declares
war, but increases after troops are in the field.
"If he actually does go to war, I suspect people will swing
behind him as they did in the Gulf War," said John Mueller,
an expert on war and public opinion at Ohio State
University. "But right now, there isn't all that much
enthusiasm for the war."
That lack of support may stem from the impression that the
president has failed to present enough hard evidence to
prove that Hussein possesses weapons of mass destruction
and is prepared to use them. The administration has spent
much of the last three months trying to build a case for
war — internationally at the United Nations, and
domestically during the president's frenetic campaigning in
advance of midterm elections last month.
"How come they can show satellite photos of nuclear sites
in Iran but they can't find the same in Iraq?" asked Nancy
Carolan, 52, a jewelry artist on the Hawaiian island of
Kauai. "I don't think they're justified, but they are just
going to do it anyway."
The poll also indicates that Americans do not agree with
the president's argument that any error or omission in the
arms declaration Iraq sent to the United Nations earlier
this month is adequate to justify war.
Instead, 63% of respondents said war would be justified
only if the United Nations finds a pattern of serious
violations by Iraq. Just 22% agreed with the
administration's position; 6% said it would depend on the
nature of the omissions; and 9% said they were not sure or
declined to reply.
Almost six in 10 say it is unlikely that the U.N.
inspectors will find Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.
"I don't doubt that they do" have weapons of mass
destruction, said respondent Victoria Ellison, 57, a
Democrat from Burbank. "But I want to see proof. "
If U.N. inspections fail to turn up evidence of Iraqi
weapons programs, almost half of respondents said they
would oppose war. Only 41% would favor war, and 10% said
they don't know whether they would favor or oppose.
The Times poll also suggests Americans are more informed
about the possibility of war with Iraq, with 84% saying
they are following the news closely — up from 76% in
August. Sixty-three percent of respondents in the recent
poll said they feel war is inevitable, 27% said war may or
may not occur, and 4% said they believed war would not
occur.
Respondents also expressed concern that the president may
not be getting balanced information from his advisors.
Fifty-one percent of respondents said they believe Bush's
advisors favor going to war; 20% said the advisors present
a balanced view; and 11% said the advisors are opposed to
war. Roughly a fifth said they are not sure whether Bush's
advisors favor or oppose war.
If the United States should launch an attack, 68% of
Americans want it to be only with the support of the
international community. Only 26% said they were willing to
support war if the United States acted alone.
"I am not opposed to doing something, but it would have to
be in the right circumstances," said Geoff George, a 20-
year-old independent from Albany, Ore. "I would probably be
a little more supportive if the U.N. and the rest of the
world united and we all decided to do it together. But [if
we act] as one nation, I don't think there would ever be
enough evidence for me."..........................
Source: L.A. Times Online
http://www.latimes.com/la-na-
iraqpoll17dec17,0,7613324.story#
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